Monday 12 April 2010
Geopoliticalmonitor.com
FORECAST
Recent events in Kyrgyzstan have once again shone a spotlight on the
politically fragile, though geopolitically crucial region of Central
Asia.
On first glance, the situation unfolding in Kyrgyzstan bears all of
the classic markers of a civil war in the making. The deposed
President Kurmanbek Bakiyev has escaped violence in Bishkek to rally
support for his cause in the south, while the new interim government
is in a scramble to put state finances in order and consolidate
support within the security forces. The rhetoric coming out of both
camps betrays irreconcilable differences, and Bakiyev’s threats of
bloodshed if the interim government launches an operation to capture
him could prove prophetic in the future.
There are however two important factors mitigating against an
immediate breakout of civil war in Kyrgyzstan.
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