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A Thriving Nuclear Black Market 

Nuclear security is out of government control, especially in Pakistan. 

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Al Qaeda & Nuclear Terror 

Al Qaeda could easily have acquired devices or materials in the last decade. 

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The Middle East nuclear race is already on 

DEBKAfile DEBKA-Net-Weekly April 20, 2010, 12:19 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags: Middle East nuclear bomb Saudi Arabia

Saudis lead the race

The Obama administration's nuclear initiatives and strategy for Iran have not managed to thwart a Middle East arms race. That race is well under way with Saudi Arabia in the van - as DEBKA-Net-Weekly reveals in exclusive detail in its coming issue out Friday.

Washington is now trying hard to grab the steering wheel and safeguard its Persian Gulf interests.

Don't miss these revelations and more.

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Obama U-Turn on UN penalties for Iran, defensible borders for Israel 

DEBKAfile Exclusive Analysis April 19, 2010, 2:18 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Hillary Clinton   Israel   Obama 

US pulls another rug from Israeli security

President Barack Obama has done away with two key elements of US-Israeli strategic relations: His administration has given up on stiff UN Security Council sanctions on Iran over its nuclear drive, and gone back on the longstanding American commitment assuring Israel of recognized and defensible borders in any future accommodation with its Arab neighbors.

In the administration's message of congratulations to Israel on its 62nd Day of Independence, US Secretary of state Hillary Clinton mentions "recognized borders" while omitting the traditional "defensible."

DEBKAfile's Washington sources report that following the talks held by Presidents Obama and Hu Jintao in Washington last week, the Administration is apparently engaged in a debate about whether to push for tough sanctions against Iran at the Security Council and run into opposition from China and other countries - or go for a quick UN General Assembly resolution, which would be non-binding.

The view William Burns, Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, offered the House foreign affairs committee last week was that a UN resolution would clear the way for the European Union and other countries to "amplify the impact" of whatever sanctions are agreed on. Burns avoided mentioning the Security Council and indicated that the administration had little hope of any effective action on Iran by the world body.

It will be recalled that President Obama twice asked Israel to ignore Iran's missed deadlines and promised to promote effective UN Security Council sanctions if Irancontinued to spurn his diplomatic efforts for curbing its nuclear program.

The last deadline was in December, 2009.

Yet on Monday, April 19, clearly lagging behind events in Washington, Israel's defense minister Ehud Barak said: "Now is the time for sanctions (against Iran)." 

He was answering questions in a radio interview on Israel's annual day of mourning for its fallen servicemen

Neither he nor any other Israeli leader commented on an equally serious setback for Israel in Washington, which emerge from a conspicuous omission in Clinton's message of congratulations for Israel's Independence Day, which is celebrated Monday night and Tuesday:  

"I have a deep personal commitment to Israel," she said. "And so does President Obama. Our nation will not waver in protecting Israel’s security and promotingIsrael’s future. That is why pursuing peace and recognized borders for Israel is one of our top priorities."

By omitting "defensible borders" from her message, she spoke for the first USadministration to abdicate its guarantee of defensible borders as a fundamental component of Israel's security, thereby nullifying her and the US president's pledge not to "waver in protecting Israel's security." 

This key omission led to another worrying question about Israel's future borders: By whom must they be recognized in the view of the Obama administration?   

The "New Hizballah" built by Syria sparks ME summer war fear 

DEBKAfile Exclusive Report April 18, 2010, 5:24 PM (GMT+02:00)

Tags:  Hizballah   New missiles   Syria 

Syrian M-600 missile converted from Fateh-110

DEBKAfile's military sources disclose that Syria has expanded the flow of smuggled Syrian and Iranian weaponry across the Lebanese border to Hizballah in line with a master-plan charted in Tehran and Damascus for transforming the 25,000-strong Hizballah terrorist militia into an organized, mobile army with a whole range of sophisticated missiles and other weapons. The new Hizballah is being trained to carry out such offensive operations as capturing parts of Israel's Galilee and equipped with the hardware for knocking out warplanes, warships and armored strength. 

One of their missions will be to defend the Syrian capital, Damascus. Tehran andDamascus calculate that the next time a war erupts on Israel's borders, its army will try and outflank Syrian forces on the Golan and drive past the units defendingDamascus. That is where Hizballah is expected to come in.

Even after the Kuwaiti Al Rai claim that Syria had smuggled Scud ground missiles into Lebanon proved inaccurate and was denied in Washington, regional war tensions remained high - although not for the reason ascribed by Jordan's King Abdullah during his current visit to Washington. 

The king forecast an outbreak of Middle East hostilities in the coming summer because of the Israel-Palestinian diplomatic stalemate. What's the connection? Our sources ask. Rather than admit he is nervously watching his aggressive Arab neighbor to the north, the Jordanian ruler is pinning the region's troubles on Israelbecause it is the right tune to sing in Barack Obama's Washington.

In actual fact, a Middle East war this summer depends on two actions which have nothing to do with the Palestinians: a decision by the US and/or Israel to strikeIran's nuclear facilities together or separately, and a decision in Tehran to unleash its allies against Israel - spearheaded by Hizballah - to preempt such an attack.

Ready to step into its new shoes, Hizballah is being armed with five major military capabilities, DEBKAfile reports:

1. Surface-to-surface missiles able to reach as far as the Dimona reactor in southern Israel: They include Fajr-5, which has a range of 33 km, and the M-600, developed by Syria from the Fateh-110, whose range is 250 km. Both are precise, propelled by solid fuel and carry 500-kilo warheads of conventional explosives, as well as being able to deliver chemical, biological and radioactive materials.

This dangerous new arsenal which tops up the 40,000 rockets Hizballah was allowed to pile up since the 2006 Lebanon war.

Saturday, April 17, Israel's deputy defense minister Mattan Vilnai, warned that Syriaand Hizballah between them had ballistic missiles that could reach every millimeter of Israeli territory. 

But he did not explain how the national defense leadership, of which he is a senior member, allowed this to happen.  

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has said nothing to account for his 14-month old government's failure to make good on its pledges for change, and first of all to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat.  Instead, he follows his predecessors' same old passive routines on Iran, Syria and Hizballah, an open invitation to aggression and a recipe for armed conflict. Of late, he is hardly to be seen or heard except for the irrelevant comments he makes at state ceremonies.

2.  Iran has built for Hizballah five expanded commando brigades whose mission in a future conflict will be to capture and hold key northern Israeli towns and villages, including the town of Nahariya or parts thereof. This tactic would force Israeli forces marching into Lebanon to turn back and recover lost land.

On March 28, DEBKAfile revealed this Iranian-Syrian master plan in detail. 

3.  Syrian instructors are training Hizballah militiamen at top speed in the operation of ground-to-air weapons, including self-propelled missiles, against warplanes and incoming missiles and cruise missiles. Israel has threatened to destroy these batteries if they cross the border into Lebanon. They are therefore being held back in Syrian bases up against the border until such time as fighting flares. They will then be transferred into the hands of Hizballah units standing by on the Lebanese side of the border.

4.  Syria has set up a Hizballah special unit for attacking warships and fighting off Israeli coastal landings. It is equipped with advanced Chinese SS-26 Yakhont marine cruise missiles, which combine assault features with the ability to intercept attacking missiles or cruise missiles.

5.  Iranian and Syrian military engineers have constructed fortified anti-tank lines in many parts of Lebanon. They are linked by fast highways, to be closed to all traffic barring Hizballah units in an emergency, and by a military-grade communications network.