The Tory leader is No 10 bound, but a sensible strategy would have put him there last week, with no need for alliances David Cameron has finally got to the steps of 10 Downing Street, but the vast majority of Conservative activists believe he should have been there a week ago, elected with his own stable majority. Ahead of last week's election, everything was set up for the Conservative party. The British economy was weak. Gordon Brown's reputation was in tatters. The Labour party was divided. In contrast, Cameron was the most popular Tory leader for a generation in mid-term polls. The party was twice as well-funded as Labour and was able to afford the most professional marginal-seats operation ever seen in UK politics. And yet, the Tories fell short. The result was not a disaster, but it was much less than it should have been. Cameron should not have had to make deals with the Liberal Democrats and spend the next few months worrying if his government will survive. Quickly learning the lessons of an inadequate campaign is essential for the Conservative party. There is talk of fixed term parliaments, but it remains more than likely that Britain will be backs at the polls within the next year. It is vital that the Tories run a much more professional and focused campaign at the second time of asking. A ConservativeHome.com survey of more than 3,000 Tory members found 62% thought the campaign was poor. Just 20% thought it was good or excellent. The team around Cameron failed to decide on a big theme for the election, choosing to run a presidential campaign based around his personality. This led them to sleepwalk into their most fatal decision, agreeing to the three election debates. Political consultants across the world were amazed that a party well ahead in the polls agreed to a potential gamechanger. The debates boosted the Liberal Democrats when they should have been squeezed; confused the Tory campaign; and have institutionalised three-party politics, making it hard to form strong, single-party governments again. Conservative election literature promised to change the economy, society and politics, but in each of those areas the message lacked bite on the doorstep. The shadow chancellor, George Osborne, never developed a consistent economic message, choosing – perhaps rightly – to downplay the austerity message in favour of caution. Unforgivably, the "big society" message favoured by the Tory head of strategy, Steve Hilton, was never poll-tested, and failed to cut through with most voters – and even frightened some. As for changing politics, Cameron did not capitalise on the way he led public anger on expenses last summer. Last year's party conference hardly referred to political reform, and the manifesto failed to capture the anti-politics mood that had persisted across the country. Tory traditionalists were most disappointed at the reluctance of the party leadership to talk about issues such as immigration. Cameron's silence on this until the last part of the campaign was like Manchester United keeping Wayne Rooney on the bench until the last game of the season. Twice, when the Tories were flagging in the polls, commitments to cut tax rescued the Tory party – but you never got the impression that Cameron felt comfortable with these messages. In reality, he was probably better equipped to sell traditional Conservatism than his immediate, less reassuring predecessors. One of the big strategic challenges for the Conservative party is to consider how to reach the three groups of voters who were least persuaded by Project Cameron. The party underperformed in Scottish constituencies, in seats with large numbers of public sector workers, and among ethnic minority voters. The Tory leadership believes the fears of these groups – and hostile elements of the media – can only be addressed from inside government. "They don't believe us when we say we're not two-headed, monstrous Thatcherites so we'll just have to prove it in office," was the conclusion of one leading Cameroon. A reassurance strategy will be challenged by the voices within the Conservative party who believe that the party will get more vote conversion by focusing on English and over-taxed private sector workers. "All sensible marketing strategies focus on the most, not the least, receptive customers," said one Tory insider. Conservative HQ's fundraising machine was a huge success, raising more money than the party could spend, putting it in a good place for a second election. Also successful was Lord Ashcroft's marginal seats operation. The Conservatives won 21 more seats than if the national swing towards the party had been averaged evenly across the nation. The Conservatives need to learn the lessons of this campaign because Labour is well positioned for the next general election. It did not suffer the landslide defeat that most expected and is now the only opposition party. The Tories lacked the killer touch that characterised Tony Blair's total war against John Major in 1997. Although Labour performed badly, the Tories shrank from the same kind of negative strategy. Cameron is attempting the most interesting post-Thatcher definition of Conservatism. His blend of traditional Conservatism on tax, crime and immigration with new messages on the environment, poverty-fighting and civil liberties could yet realign British politics. His alliance with Nick Clegg adds a fascinating extra dimension to that narrative. • ConservativeHome's inquiry into the Conservative election campaignCongratulations, Mr Cameron. Now learn the lessons of a dismal campaign
Wednesday, 12 May 2010
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