By John Bingham and Tom Whitehead Although the Eurosceptic group suffered a dismal election night, failing to make a breakthrough in mainstream politics, it may inadvertently have handed the pro-European Liberal Democrats the possibility of a role in government. Analysis of results shows that in at least 21 key marginal seats, Ukip’s share of the vote proved enough to allow Labour or the Lib Dems to see off strong Tory challenges. The extra victories would have been enough to fill the 20-seat shortfall needed to hand David Cameronan outright majority in the Commons. Schools secretary Ed Balls' Morley and Outwood constituency was among key seats where the result might have been different without Ukip. Mr Balls survived with a majority of only 1,101 while Ukip polled 1,506 in the contest. Ruth Kelly’s former seat of Bolton West and Glenda Jackson’s Hampstead and Kilburn seat in north London might have fallen to the Tories had it not been for Ukip’s presence. Former Tories who defected to the Eurosceptic party said that disappointment over Mr Cameron's position on a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty could have cost him a majority. But Ukip was last night facing up to the prospect of watching the Tories reach an accommodation with the pro-European Lib Dems as a result of its presence in "winnable" constituencies. Despite high hopes, Ukip did not pick up a single seat and managed just three per cent of the overall vote, with just over 900,000. The party had hoped to hit at least five per cent and pass the one million votes barrier following its success in last year’s European Parliament elections but fell well short of both. However it said it had achieved a "solid" performance, with a 50 per cent increase in support since the 2005 election. Its key target had been to unseat John Bercow, the House of Commons Speaker, but Ukip's Nick Farage could only muster third place. Mr Farage was still in hospital yesterday after being injured when a light aircraft he was a passenger in crashed in Northamptonshire on Thursday. The plane, towing an election banner, had been in the air for nearly 15 minutes and was preparing to land when it nosedived and hit the ground. It is thought the banner may have become tangled up in the plane's tail fin, causing the crash. Northamptonshire Police are investigating. Mr Farage had been contesting Mr Bercow's Buckingham seat but the latter remained in place with a majority of more than 12,000. Ukip fielded 560 candidates and was anticipating a higher success rate in members keeping their deposit. Just 47 did five years ago. Gawain Towler, Ukip spokesman, said: “We are realistic and did not expect to come from where we are overnight in a first past the post system. "Of course we are disappointed but an increase of 50 per cent is not bad in anyone's book.” Mr Farage's election agent, Dave Fowler, said on his behalf: "I assure Ukip voters and supporters that although we have lost this battle, the war carries on." Did UKIP COSTS THE TORIES A COMMONS MAJORITY? The Telegraph asks the question and highlights Ed Balls' victory - won by only 1,101 votes while UKIP polled 1,506. "Jason" left a comment on ConHome listing some of the Tory near misses and the UKIP vote (on a spot check his figures look correct): The trouble with these analyses is that they assume most of the UKIP vote would have gone to the Conservatives. I'm not so sure but it's worth re-reading a blogpost from Janet Daley in the light of these findings. Three weeks ago she wrote: "In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government." Tim Montgomerie By Janet Daley Politics Last updated: April 21st, 2010 In the name of its own principles, UKIP should now feel morally obliged to withdraw its candidates from the general election – or at least from contesting any seat in which a Liberal Democrat might oust a Conservative. If it does not – and if it thus succeeds in depriving the Conservatives of a working majority and inflating the LibDem result by default - it will have been responsible for providing the most Europhile party in British politics with signficant power in a coalition government. Which gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “tragic irony”. I beg my old friend Lord Pearson to take this plea seriously. Tags: Conservatives, Lord Pearson, UKIPGeneral Election 2010: Ukip challenge 'cost Tories a Commons majority'
The UK Independence Party's small but significant showing at the polls may have cost David Cameron a majority in the Commons, voting figures suggest.
Published: 10:00PM BST 07 May 2010Related Articles