Vol. 10, Issue 446, May 21, 2010
Moscow Takes a Swipe at US in Middle East
Friday, May 14: The Day Cold War II Was Launched
Barack Obama
The White House blandly depicted the telephone conversation between Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev on Thursday, May 13, as producing agreement to step up moves for new sanctions against Iran over its suspect nuclear program. In their wide-ranging exchange, they were said to have noted "good progress and "agreed to instruct their negotiators to intensify their efforts to reach a conclusion as soon as possible."
While the Iranian issue was certainly broached, Obama and Medvedev's conversation was far from bland and its wide range covered a minefield.
A high-placed Washington source told DEBKA-Net-Weekly that Obama took Medvedev to task and told him he must rein in Syrian President Bashar Assad to save the Middle East from an imminent full-scale war.
The US president was prompted by an intelligence update reaching him shortly before the phone call, in which the watchers tracking the flow of smuggled Syrian weapons into Lebanon had spotted Scud missiles moving across the Syrian-Lebanese border into Hizballah hands - in defiance of ominous US and Israeli warnings.
Damascus had been tipped off by Moscow that America and Israel would take no action, provided the transfers went forward slowly and only a few at a time.
Yet Medvedev, who had just returned from Damascus, promised to comply with Obama's request.
What promises? Moscow is grinding its own axe
But instead, Moscow delivered a shocker. Just a few hours later, Friday morning, May 14. Mikhail Dmitriyev, head of Russia's Federal Agency for Military Cooperation, announced the sale to Syria of MiG-29 fighter jets, Pantsyr short-range air defense systems and armored vehicles.
He did not say exactly when the transaction was signed, suggesting only that it was finalized during Medvedev's visit to Damascus the week before.
President Obama and his senior advisors were forced to acknowledge finally that Moscow's sole motive now was to grind its own axe, just for starters in Iran and Syria. (See DEBKA-Net-Weekly reporting in this issue and on May 14: Russia Tries to Push US aside on Iran).
Washington would therefore be well advised to discount Russian leaders' promises, including support for tough sanctions against Iran. And rather than curbing Assad, the Kremlin was acting to boost him with a fresh injection of arms and backing for his anti-American tactics.
The negative messages from Moscow coincided with a White House re-evaluation of the president's "grand bargain" policy which made a point of treating Moscow as nuclear friend and partner and a willingness to revive the civilian nuclear cooperation agreement shelved two years ago by his predecessor George W. Bush to protest Russia's conflict with Georgia.
White House analysts came up with a grimly unequivocal diagnosis, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington sources disclose: The president's year-old policy of fair cooperation with Russia was counter-productive - if not downright damaging.
Clobbering the US with its own diplomatic initiatives
Moscow was found to be using the Obama administration's diplomatic initiatives as hammers to clobber US interests in the Middle East as well as the Caspian and Central Asian countries. Its activities for disrupting those interests in such places as Syria and Iran were described as comparable in intensity to the Cold War campaigns of the Soviet era in the 1970s.
In Iran, for instance, Moscow had cynically exploited the US president's quest for succor and support for harsh UN sanctions against Iran as a tool for rendering those sanctions toothless and of no use for curbing Iran's drive for a nuclear weapon.
The Russian president was caught putting on a big show to disguise his complicity in the maneuver hatched by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva "Lula" and Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan which produced the deal Monday, May 18, for Iran to send some enriched uranium to Turkey in return for fuel rods for "medical research."
The show began when Medvedev told Lula who had stopped over in Moscow on his way to Tehran, "The president of Brazil is an optimist, so I'll be an optimist, too. I give him 30 percent chance of success."
From the start, this deal was a secret conspiracy hatched with Iran behind America's back during the Russian president's visit to Damascus, whereby Brazil and Turkey would clinch a deal for de-activating the US drive for tough sanctions capable of stalling Tehran's progress towards its nuclear objectives.
One high-ranking US official commented: "The beauty of the stunt is that the Russians didn't leave any detectable fingerprints, even though they pushed for it as hard as they could."
Moscow quietly shapes a new anti-American world bloc
While holding back S-300 interceptor missiles for warding off potential US or Israel strikes against Iran's nuclear sites - as Putin personally promised Washington - Russia has resumed training of Iranian teams in their operation. (See HOT POINTS of May 19, below).
Russia's drive for influence and gain goes well beyond diplomacy, according to the new White House assessment. While in Damascus and Ankara, Medvedev also dealt with Russia's push to expand its control of the oil and gas pipelines from Iran and the Central Asian countries to Europe in a takeover of American holdings.
Last November, the Russian pipeline builder OAO Stroytransgaz completed the first part of the Syrian section of a gas pipeline from Egypt across Jordan with a branch running into Turkey.
Shortly before his visit to Syria, the Russian president told the Syrian newspaper Al Watan in an interview that Russian firms were also interested in participating in the construction of an oil refinery in the northern Syrian city Deir Ez-Zor, and also in reconstructing an oil pipeline from the Kirkuk oil field in northern Iraq to the Syrian port of Banias.
In other words, Moscow is getting ready to assume a controlling share in the huge Iraqi oil export industry as soon as American forces pull out of the country.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Washington, Obama's analysts have picked up on Russia's grand design to foster a new grouping of Middle East and South American nations, such as Brazil, Turkey, Iran and Syria, with Iraq eventually attached - or rather swallowed up.
Nuclear proliferation, terror sponsorship are no object
In contrast to the non-aligned bloc of the old Cold War days, this one has rich economic potential, gathering in two of the world's biggest oil exporters, Iran and Iraq, and cultivating their dependence on Russia's technological, nuclear and military capabilities.
This new alignment of world nations would be pro-Russian and anti-American in character.
In pursuit of this goal, Russia is not only prepared to let Syria have sophisticated weapons. Medvedev also promised Assad a nuclear reactor, despite its record of non-cooperation with the nuclear watchdog, and signed deals for building $24 billion dollars-worth of nuclear plants in Turkey too.
Russia's partnership with America for containing nuclear proliferation is therefore one more show as Moscow lets Iran get away with triggering a Middle East nuclear arms race and helping it spread like fungus into southern Europe and Central Asia.
Sponsorship of jihadi terrorism is no bar to its plans, as the Russian president demonstrated by acceding to the Syrian president's request for a meeting with the Palestinian Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal in Damascus.
That marked the end of cooperation with America in combating global terror.
This week, administration leaders are quoted by our sources in Washington as commenting with glum resignation that they see no way at this juncture of averting the emergence of a new Cold War between the United States and Russia under the incumbent governments.
"The die is cast," said one very senior US official. "Although we can't say so in public, all our policies and efforts must now be ruled by the ongoing battle of interests between Washington and Moscow.
Now For a New Third World Nuclear Club
Monday, May 17: Debut of an Anti-US "Non-Aligned" Bloc
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Tayyip Erdogan
Three rulers were brought together in Tehran this week by their respective personal ambitions for leadership roles in their regions or even von a worldwide platform. But otherwise, and outside their joint mission to underwrite a deal for Iran to export uranium for further enrichment, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan have very little in common - even in their viewpoints on a nuclear-armed Iran.
Erdogan may pose as Tehran's dear friend but he is terrified of his big neighbor to the east becoming a Muslim superpower with a nuclear bomb. Ankara would then be obliged to acquire its own. Turkey is also leery of Tehran's long reach into the Muslim states of Central Asia, where Turkish and Iranian interests clash.
Lula da Silva is on the make in the global arena, convinced that the rise of a weak, inexperienced president in Washington has given him the opportunity to act as "Liberator" of the Third World - especially Latin America - to gain their freedom from US nuclear and economic hegemony.
He freely admits his aspirations in private conversations.
In view of North Korea's distance and its ties with Beijing, Lula missed the opportunity for playing Grand Mediator in the dispute over Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal, but Iran was tailor-made for the Brazilian's maiden appearance on the world stage.
Indeed, the Islamic Republic suited his agenda down to the ground: No client state, Iran is a Muslim superpower whose rulers are happy to challenge America's military and diplomatic authority any time. The nuclear swap deal was the top item of world news that week and the follow-up event was a fat bonus in terms of Lula's personal prestige.
Iran's nuclear deal kicks off "Non-Aligned" Bloc's founding
Monday, May 17, as Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu and Brazilian Foreign Minister Celso Amorim ceremonially signed their nuclear deal in Tehran - with Erdogan, Ahmedenijad and da Silva linking hands behind them in a show of victory - delegations of the G-15 nations took their seats around a conference table not far away in the Iranian capital.
The Group of 15 (G-15) developing nations was established at the Ninth Non-Aligned Movement Summit Meeting in Belgrade, Yugoslavia in September 1989 to foster cooperation and ties with the Group of Industrialized Nations. The G-15 now comprises 17 nations, Algeria, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya, Nigeria, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Senegal, Sri Lanka, Venezuela and Zimbabwe.
They enthusiastically acclaimed the just-signed nuclear deal, brokered by one of their members and unanimously endorsed it, placing the deal at the center of another pivotal event, the founding of the new anti-American Non-Alligned Bloc.
The conference was not a summit. Most of the group's national rulers did not attend in person - possibly because they did not attach the same historic dimension to the occasion as did its sponsors. Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez, a good friend of its host, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, wanted to attend but cancelled at the last minute when he realized his Brazilian colleague had stolen his thunder as leader of the South American group.
An emerging Third World bloc is an old Cold War symbol
This and other incidents did not detract from the G-15's new-found importance in the developing Cold War between the US and Russia as a Third World bloc filling the expanding space between the powers and leaning more heavily toward Moscow than Washington.
The last thing President Barack Obama sought was this sort of conflict with Russia, but whether or not he decides to participate in the contest, America has been inexorably drawn in. The existence of a third bloc means a second entity is challenging the US as a world power in support of Russia and whether he likes it or not, its presence will be felt strongly worldwide in every diplomatic and military issue of the day.
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton underestimated the momentum building up in Tehran.
Just before the Iranian nuclear deal was signed in Tehran, she called the Brazilian and Turkish foreign ministers separately and told them it had become superfluous. Iran, she said, had promised a response to IAEA queries within five or six days and there was no "particular timetable" for getting a UN sanctions resolution passed at the UN Security Council.
Twenty-four hours after the signing, Clinton realized her mistake and swung into action Tuesday, May 18, to assemble a united front for a sanctions motion. She was too late. Turkish and Brazilian leaders were no longer listening. Brazil boycotted the Security Council session, saying there was no longer any need for sanctions after the nuclear pact had been negotiated in Tehran.
Most Muslim nations courted by Obama join the new bloc
And Wednesday, May 19, Ahmadinejad's senior advisor Mojtaba Samareh-Hashemi said the sanctions motion was illegal. Iran's Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, confidently backed now by Turkey, Brazil and most G-15 member nations, stated: "There is no chance for a new resolution to be approved at the Security Council… Let's not take this seriously."
The new bloc could count on winning its first battle, fought with Moscow in the background. Its victory was apparent in the wording of the sanctions draft the United States submitted to the Security Council Tuesday. Its provisions are too mild to be worthy of the term sanctions. For instance, searches may be conducted on ships suspected of transporting nuclear materials or missiles to Iran only after the ship's flagged owner is asked for permission.
President Obama's commitment to diplomatic engagement and international cooperation above any other option inhibits his administration's ability to tackle world issues. His secretary of state's handling of the Moscow-backed Brazilian-Turkish coup in Tehran was the first casualty.
Since a cornerstone of his engagement policy is reconciliation between the United States and the Muslim world, contrary to President Bush's confrontational approach, how can Obama stick to this course when most Muslim states have joined the non-aligned grouping and accepted its anti-American orientation?
Handling Tehran's Brazil-Brokered Fait Accompli
It May Not Be All Bad, Say Obama's People
Susan Rice
The coup pulled off in Tehran by Brazil and Turkey with Russian backing was contrived too deftly for US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and US Ambassador to the UN Susan Rice to unravel - even by lightning diplomatic sleight of hand.
To rescue the administration's Iran policy from total collapse, the two worked at top speed to cobble together a sanctions motion feeble enough to command a broad front and have it tabled at the UN Security Council on Tuesday, May 18 - a bare 24 hours after Brazilian and Turkish leaders had Iran sign a 10-point commitment to deposit less than half of its low-grade enriched uranium in Turkey in exchange for fuel rods.
To gain Russian and Chinese endorsement, the draft's content was heavily watered down with hardly any new measures proposed. This process finally cut short Washington's serpentine efforts to get Moscow and Beijing to collaborate on tough sanctions for halting Iran's acquisition of a nuclear bomb. So, to keep the vestigial draft motion moving along the rutted path up to Security Council approval, there will have to be more chops and changes.
All the same, the week's debacles over Iran prompted a new, hopeful line of thinking in Washington. Administration officials told DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington sources the cloud may have a silver lining, after all. They argued that, in the end, Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva "Lula" and Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan undeniably managed to extract three concessions which Iran denied in former rounds of talks with the Six-Power bloc of the US, Russia, China, France, the UK and Germany.
Obama officials see a silver lining
1. After endless haggling, Iran has agreed to ship a total of 1,200 kilograms of its lightly enriched uranium overseas for further enrichment.
2. It has also consented to shipping the entire quantity all in one batch abroad, after long insisting on dribs and drabs. Washington's main consideration was and is that it is safe to leave Iran with enough enriched uranium for building one or two bombs because it was sure Tehran would not cross that threshold until it had enough weapons-grade uranium in hand for assembling an arsenal of 10 to 12 warheads.
3. Tehran had always objected to the enriched uranium swap taking place outside Iran. Now, Turkey was accepted as a clearing house for the exchange.
Those sources go on to argue that if Tehran could be prevailed upon to give way on those three points, why not go for more? More concessions might be going with the right kind of pressure - not necessarily from the United States. US officials accordingly drafted a set of demands which they believe are worth presenting to Tehran in the hope of a substantial reward. If they are met, then a US-Iranian nuclear showdown might be delayed by a year - or even two - and the risk averted of an Israeli military attack on Iranian nuclear facilities.
The three concessions as building blocks for more
These are the new demands:
A. Iran must abandon its announced intention of continuing to enrich uranium at home from a low 3.5 percent to 19.5 percent grade. Since the Iranian-Turkish-Brazilian agreement allows for overseas processing to 19.5 percent, Iran has nothing to lose by halting the centrifuges spinning at its plants since February. According to our Iranian sources, some 300 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20- percent are already in stock.
B. If Iran complies with A., Washington will guarantee a regular supply of fuel rods for the light water reactor at Bushehr which the Russians have promised to have up and running by late summer. This would entail the US withdrawing its strong objections to Russia finishing the reactor, while at the same time internationalizing the supply of fuel rods and taking it out of Moscow's hands.
C. Iran's consent to the reprocessing of low-grade enriched uranium outside its borders must be extended to further quantities. Since negotiations began last year, the 1,200 kilos of low-enriched uranium to be exported - then three-quarters of Iran's total stock - has almost doubled.
The Americans will ask Tehran to split future amounts into batches of predetermined size for overseas upgrading to 19.5 percent, and insist that the reprocessing take place in Russia, France or Holland, the only countries with the technology for making the product unusable for military purposes.
In this way, Iran would never accumulate enough of this product for further enrichment to weapons-grade.
D. Iran must fully comply with the Vienna-based International Atomic Energy Agency's demand to open up more nuclear facilities to monitors and admit more inspectors to its suspected military projects.
E. Iran must give part with answers to long years of IAEA queries about the military aspects of its nuclear industry.
Who will put these demands to Iran? Its Brazilian or Turkish chums? Or why not let the IAEA take this starring role in future nuclear diplomacy and recover some of its lost relevance? But first, the Obama administration needs to find out if there are any real grounds for its sudden upbeat mood after a lousy week - in other words, will Tehran play along and meet those five demands?
The answer is brutally clear: Not a chance, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Iranian sources. Tehran will never negotiate on - or lay to rest - any queries about the military nature of its nuclear program.
Transparency there is not an option.
White House Mends Fences with Israel
Midterm Elections and Cold War Reinstate Israel as Key Player
C-130 “Hercules”
US President Barack Obama plans to dramatize his new appreciation of Israel as America's long-trusted friend and strategic ally for the benefit of the American-Jewish and Israeli public.
One possible action, according to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in Washington, is a second visit to Jerusalem by Vice President Joe Biden as a gesture of goodwill toward Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, in sharp contrast to his disastrous visit in March, when Israel's announcement of a construction project in East Jerusalem was used to inflame a deep crisis in relations.
Biden will be taxed with explaining that such incidents as the insulting reception afforded the Israeli prime minister on his White House visit on April 23 were a thing of the past and the administration was intent on putting relations back on track, with emphasis on the president's unshakable commitment to Israel's security.
Certain important gestures have already been forthcoming from Washington, although they received far less media play than the crisis.
In the first week of April, Obama ordered the Pentagon to release C-130J air transports to Israel. He had previously embargoed these aircraft because they could be used to drop Israel commando forces inside Iran in case of a decision to attack its nuclear facilities. The President had $98.6 million transferred to Lockheed Martin to pay for the delivery of the first nine transports.
Smart bombs for Israel and pursuit of American-Jewish leaders
On May 9, the President released a shipment to the Israeli Air Force of various types of smart bombs - most of them effective against the fortified locations and the weapons systems used by the Lebanese Hizballah, the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza and the Syrian army. The consignment also included Laser-Guided Joint Direct Attack Munitions system, called LJDAM, which was developed jointly by the US Boeing company Israel's Elbit for improving the accuracy of bombs fired from a maximum distance of 28 kilometers in all weathers.
On May 20, US Congress overwhelming endorsed President Obama's request for $205 million to help Israel build the new rocket defense system "Iron Dome.
Thursday, May 13, top White House aides, led by the President's Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel, Senior Advisor to the President on Iranian Affairs Dennis Ross, and NSC Middle East desk chief Dan Shapiro (whose brief includes Israel), addressed a delegation of 15 leading American rabbis.
Rahm admitted the administration had "screwed up the messaging" to Israel and said "it will take more than one month to make up for 14 months."
The White House fielded its top officials to show American-Jewish community leaders that the president was wholehearted in revising his attitude toward Israel and this group had been entrusted with following through on his directives.
Tuesday, May 18, Jewish Democratic members of the House and Senate were invited to a private meeting with President Obama and heard him admit he got "some toes blown off" making missteps in sensitive US-Israel relations. The lawmakers praised the administration's effort to put forward tough sanctions against Iran and put to rest White House recriminations against Israel.
"It was a good meeting, but it was not a feel-good meeting – everyone spoke their minds and from the heart," said Eliot Engel (D-Bronx & Westchester). "The President wants to see peace. We all want to see peace as well."
The unprecedented 90-minute meeting took place in the Eisenhower Old Executive Office Building.
Stop badgering Israel, make Palestinians pull their weight
Between the two meetings with American Jewish leaders, senior administration emissaries were dispatched to Israel with orders to secretly meet Israel figures seen by Washington as influential and convey three messages:
1. President Obama was burying the hatchet with Israel - less to get out the Jewish vote and boost his Democrats' hopes for Nov. 2 midterm elections, and more out of new strategic needs arising from the outbreak of a virtual Cold War between Washington and Moscow.
Middle East envoy George Mitchell had been instructed by the president in person to refrain from pressuring Israel to be the only side constantly badgered for concessions in the proximity talks with the Palestinians. He was told to accept Israel's limits and starting leaning hard on the Palestinians to make them pull their weight too.
2. The President's messengers reported that he had come to understand that as long as there was no one he could count on in the Arab world, the US and Israel must work together on ways to counteract the Iranian-Turkish-Syrian bloc and its input from Moscow.
Egypt's president Hosni Mubarak is too busy transferring the reins of government to his son Gemal Mubarak to be called on, while Saudi Arabia's loss of Lebanon and Hamas to the Syrian-Iranian orbit has made its king indifferent to outside events.
Moscow was capitalizing on is reputation for cooperating with Washington, but the White House knew this was an act to cover up its return to Cold War tactics against the United States.
Without saying so explicitly, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources report that the American officials implied that the Obama administration would soon turn to Israel to talk about resuming the intelligence partnership which was so fruitful in the Cold War years of the 1960s and 1970s.
For the moment, Prime Minister Netanyahu is taking Obama's gestures of friendship with great caution and refraining from referring publicly to the new face the White House appears to be presenting to Jerusalem. He is waiting to see what steps come next and, above all, keeping an open mind until after the November 2 elections before deciding on his response.
Saudi King versus US President
Abdullah's Key Ally Assails American Role as Mid East Protector
Turki Al-Faisal
The close bonds of friendship between Saudi Arabia and the United States and America's role as protector of the throne have long been a central pillar of both their national policies, albeit with due attention to avoiding stubbing sensitive toes.
This delicate formula was shattered on Saturday, May 15 by Prince Turki Al-Faisal, who delivered the most scathing attack on America ever heard from a Saudi high-up.
Prince Turki and his brother, foreign minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal, belong to the powerful royal triangle headed by King Abdullah, which rules the kingdom, often counter-balanced by the fiercely pro-American rival Sudairi clan headed by the defense minister Crown Prince Sultan.
Turki is also the senior ideologue at the king's side.
A former ambassador to London and Washington, he came to diplomacy from his job as Saudi intelligence chief during the period of Osama bin Laden's rise and the al Qaeda 9/11 attack on the United States. While holding the formal title of Director of the King Faisal Center for Research and Islamic Studies, Turki is believed to have preserved the confidential contacts he built up on behalf of the Saudi throne with the al Qaeda leader and the Afghan Taliban chief Mullah Muhammad Omar in the past. He is therefore regarded as commanding a rare inside track on both movements and an ace specialist in the undercurrents at work in the Afghanistan and Pakistani conflicts.
Given his background, the ex-ambassador is also well aware of the weight words carry.
US is judged inept, ignorant and arrogant
His diatribe against the Obama administration was therefore taken seriously by experienced observers talking to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Gulf sources as most probably representing the views of the Saudi monarch. He may even have been repeating comments he heard from Abdullah in secret conclaves at the Royal Palace with regard to Obama administration policies and issues of the day concerning the Middle East, Afghanistan, Palestinian-Israel peacemaking, Iran, Iraq and Syria's domination of Lebanon.
According to one source, the octogenarian Abdullah views US President Barack Obama and Syria's Bashar Assad in a similar light as youthful, inexperienced heads of state, who keep on falling into serious strategic errors.
He sees no sign that Obama, after 14 months in the White House, is beginning to appreciate and correct his blunders and has voiced the fear that without a radical policy reassessments and revisions, his failures will multiply.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly takes the most salient of Prince Turki's comments point by point:
America's standing in the Middle East: The US has lost the "moral high ground" gained in the Middle East after 9/11 because of its "negligence, ignorance and arrogance."
Afghanistan: "The inept way in which the US has dealt with President Karzai beggars belief… The result is that both sides are resentful of each other with a sour taste in their mouths."
Turki disapproves of President Obama's strategy of foregoing victory and focusing on weakening the Taliban enough to bring them to the bargaining table on their knees. The Saudi prince urges a much tougher strategy. "The US should hunt down the terrorists on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border, arrest them or kill them and get out and let the Afghan people deal with their problems. A continuing US presence only fuels the conflict. As long as GI boots remain on Afghan soil, they remain targets of resistance for the Afghan people."
US needs a reset button for tactics against a nuclear Iran
The Saudi prince had nothing but contempt for the latest notion going around Washington whereby any reconciliation scenario must reflect Pashtun culture. American grasp of the Afghan psyche and US field intelligence is seriously wanting, he found - even after a close to a decade in the country.
As the prince put it, "The Taliban of today are not the same as a decade ago. They are no longer exclusively Pashtun warriors. They are any and every Afghan of whatever ilk who raises arms against the foreign invaders. By declaring them the enemy, America has declared the people of Afghanistan the enemy."
Iran: "The International community's stance (led by US) over its nuclear ambitions has been on the wrong footing since the start; the 'reset button' needs to be pushed. The stick and carrot approach will not work and there has to be a level playing field." The Saudi prince argued: "You cannot ask Iran to play on one level while you allow Israel, India, Pakistan and North Korea to play on other levels."
Turki was highly critical of US handling of the nuclear issue and its wider regional implications, singling out Hillary Clinton in particular. "She has damaged efforts to make the Middle East nuclear-weapon-free when I hope President Obama, who has made universal disarmament his goal… will find the way to correct his Secretary of State's nullification of making our area free of weapons of mass destruction," he said.
US should recognize Palestinian state, then pack up and leave
Iraq: Prince Turki was especially pessimistic about Iraq's prospects as American forces prepare to withdraw. "The consequences," he forecast, "would be more bloodshed and potential civil war."
International guarantees are vital to ensure Iraq remains a functioning sovereign state, he said. The alternative would be "regional conflict on a scale not seen since the Ottoman-Safavid wars of the 17th and 18th centuries." America's venture in Iraq was a failure, as far as he is concerned, because civil war has now become impossible to prevent.
Israel and the Palestinians: "President Obama had proved eloquent in his vision of a two-state solution for the Palestinian issue, but this is not enough. He has to be equally eloquent in implementing it."
Turki wants the US to be the "Big Bear pushing us all" – Israelis and Arabs alike – to make it happen. "It is not enough to talk the talk. He has to walk the walk. If there is no resolution by the September deadline set by the Arab League foreign ministers in Cairo earlier this month, the US should recognize the Palestinian state," says the Saudi prince, and then "pack up, leave us in peace and let the Palestinians, Syrians and Lebanese negotiate directly with the Israelis."
Does the Middle East need America?
In other words, in the view the Saudi royal faction led by King Abdullah, the United States has exhausted its usefulness in just about all the key regions of conflict. America should leave Afghanistan and let its inhabitants solve their conflicts, and quit its involvement in the Middle East - which is going nowhere - and leave solutions in the hands of the regional powers.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Gulf sources translate Prince Turki's comments as representing a radical departure from Riyadh's fundamental, historic acceptance of an American presence in the Middle East as the only true guarantee of Saudi territorial integrity and the key bulwark of the Saudi throne.
His words count in Washington because he would never have spoken so bluntly without the monarch's sanction. Do those words of criticism reflect rumbles in Riyadh questioning America's continuing ability to perform as the Saudi Royal Family's champion?
Not yet, perhaps, but the Obama administration is beginning to heed them as a warning signal that America's Middle East role as protector should not be taken for granted.
HOT POINTS
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in the Week Ending May 20, 2010
May 14, 2010 Briefs
• Russia to sell Syria MiG-29 fighters, Pantsir short-range anti-air missiles and artillery systems in a deal agreed during Russian president's Damascus visit. debkafile: The Pantsir was unable to foil the 2007 air strike against Syria's North Korean reactor.
• Israeli New York Consulate building evacuated Friday night when envelope containing white powder delivered for Consul-General Assi Shariv. Police cordoned Second Avenue building off to pedestrians for investigation.
• Two Israelis slightly hurt when Palestinians opened fire on their vehicle near a roadblock north Ramallah, West Bank.
• Joint Israeli-Palestinian probe into shooting death of Palestinian boy near West Bank area where Israel vehicles stoned Thursday night.
• Explosive device activated Friday against Israeli military patrol passing Gaza border's Sufa crossing.
Syria, Hizballah build a fortified wall in E. Lebanon
15 May: This massive fortification will run from Rashaya Al Wadi on the western slopes of Mt. Hermon in the south to the Lebanese Beqaa Valley town of Aita el-Foukhar, in the north, debkafile's military sources reveal. When finished, the 22-km long structure running parallel to the Lebanese-Syrian border will be one of the biggest fortified structures in the Middle East, designed to block off any Israeli tank thrust through Lebanon to Damascus, and strengthen Syria's grip on the country. It will alsol isolate a key Lebanese border region - 14 kilometers wide and 22 kilometers long - from the rest of the country and place it under Hizballah-Syrian military control. This region is inhabited most by Druzes and Christians. .
Behind the rising wall, Hizballah and Syria can freely smuggle weapons across concealed from outside surveillance. It will be off-limits to Lebanese military access -except for Hizballah. Syrian troops, officers and arms stores are to be based there and maintained in a state of war readiness.
May 16, 2010 Briefs
• Israel economy reaches annual growth rate of 3.3 percent in first quarter of 2010.
• Israel starts Exercise Turning-Point 4 next Sunday to prepare home front for coordinated massive missile attacks from Iran, Syria, Hizballah and Hamas. The five-day exercise will be countrywide.
• Iranian Hizballah leader Ayatollah Kharrazi advocates Greater Iran spreading across Mid East and Central Asia.
• Syrian PM Naji Al-Otari cautions Israel not to go attack his country because "we are well capable of retaliating".
• Essex home raided of ex-manager of UK firm suspected of exporting to Iran chemical material usable in dirty bombs.
• Al Qaeda-Iraq names two leaders to replace the two killed by a US-Iraqi assault team April 18. They are Abu-Bakr al-Baghdadi al- Husseini al-Quraish is "emir" and Abu Abdullah al-Hassani al-Qurashi (no relation) as his deputy.
• Noam Chomsky and his daughter barred from crossing into Israel from Jordan through the Allenby Bridge Gate.
Obama tries turning a new leaf on Israel
16 May: After more than a year, US president Barack Obama has suddenly stepped back from his icy treatment of Israel and its prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu, debkafile's Washington sources report. In an effort to make amends, he sent his top advisers, including his chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, with a public apology (of a kind) to leading American rabbis.
This does not mean Obama has given up on his objective of a two-state solution of the conflict with the Palestinians, but arm-twisting tactics have been set aside for now.
Political and Jewish circles see the change as an attempt win back Jewish voter support for the Democrats, in time for midterm elections.
debkafile's Washington sources stress that the context is a lot wider. The US president is counting his assets in the face of the dramatic big power realignment in the Middle East and the diplomatic impasse over Iran's drive for a nuclear bomb.
Netanyahu may be justified in crowing over his success in standing up to the US president's cold shoulder, insults and pressure, whereas defense minister Ehud Barak and opposition leader Tzipi Liivni have been confounded in their dire warnings that refusal to surrender in a big way to the Palestinians would gravely jeopardize US-Israel relations.
Brazil, Turkey bolster Iran's nuclear drive, disarm US sanctions threat
17 May: Iran is rid of international harassment over its nuclear program thanks to the deal clinched in Tehran Monday, May 17 by Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva "Lula" and Turkish prime minister Recep Erdogan. Iran agreed to export some 1,200 kilograms of its lightly enriched uranium to Turkey for reprocessing to 19.5 percent grade.
The two leaders mounted their initiative on behalf of the nascent anti-American bloc also backed by Russia, as well as Iran's close allies Syria, Hizballah and Hamas.
From a wide range of data, debkafile's military sources confirm the deal is wholly fraudulent and no more than a piece of diplomatic trickery.
The deal legitimizes Iran's right to enrich uranium in violation of UN Security Council resolutions. Tehran has now gained an international seal for going up to weapons grade.
The Six-Power group's compromise proposition for the export of 1.200 kilograms of low-enriched Iranian uranium was put forward more than a year ago and left hanging. Since then, its stock has doubled.
In any case, the deal leaves Tehran with the necessary infrastructure for continuing to build up its stocks of enriched uranium - and at a higher grade.
May 19 2010 Briefs
• Mitchell talks to Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah Wednesday, meets Netanyahu Thursday.
• Obama sends NSA Jones and CIA chief Panetta to Islamabad.
• At least 18 killed including 5 American troops and a Canadian colonel when suicide driver rams explosives van into US convoy in Kabul Tuesday. Another 47 people wounded in attack near parliament building in central Kabul.
• Palestinians intensify boycott of Israeli settlement products as US Middle East envoy Mitchell launches peace talks with Israel.
• Israeli factory owners call on government to close ports to Palestinian goods.
Sanctions against Iran are a dead letter (Updated)
19 May: By fleet diplomatic footwork, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton submitted a sanctions package to the UN Security Council Tuesday, May 19, that Western diplomats admitted contained few new measures but gained the reluctant assent of Russia and China, as well as the UK, France and Germany. The draft was heavily diluted out of a necessity to submit it fast and so salvage the last vestige of the US administration's sanctions strategy from the assault mounted by a Brazilian-Iranian enriched uranium deal.
The measures fall short of a total arms embargo against Tehran, although some additional arms are banned or blacklisting Iran's central bank. States are asked to take appropriate, though not mandatory, measures, exercise vigilance against Iranian bank transactions and "be wary" of dealing with the Revolutionary Guards Corps and the companies it controls.
The Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu convened his inner cabinet in Jerusalem Tuesday, May 18, to decide how to handle the crisis created by the Brazilian-Turkish-Iranian accord.
But the fact is that sanctions with real bite had never been more than a will-o'-the wisp in the first place.
In Jerusalem, Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak came in for extreme criticism for allowing Israel's hand to be held by the false prospect of painful sanctions stopping Iran's development of a nuclear bomb in its tracks. Barak in particular was accused of misleading the public by his constant assurances that it was up to the United States to deal with a nuclear-armed Iran. Both knew the truth, namely that the Obama administration's efforts to gather a coalition of world powers for the imposition of effective sanctions had never realistically got off the ground.
Iranian teams secretly train on S-300 interceptors in Russia
19 May: While Russia joins the US in backing softened UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, debkafile's military sources report Iranian Revolutionary Guards crews are surreptitiously training at Russian bases in the operation of the advanced Russian S-300 interceptor-missile systems, which are capable of fending off a potential attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
UN sources disclose that, after being softened by Russia and China, the new sanctions motion does not ban the consignment of this weapon to Iran. It is being withheld form Tehran for now, keeping the promise prime minister Vladimir Putin gave President Barack Obama. But if and when the weapons are delivered, Iran will have trained crews ready to operate them.
In their push to develop military ties with Iran and its allies, the Russians earlier this month also agreed to sell Syria MiG-29 fighter jets, Pantsyr short-range air defense systems and armored vehicles in a major arms transaction.
Obama starts massive US Air-Sea-Marine build-up opposite Iran
20 May: A US Carrier Strike Group headed by the Harry S. Truman sails out Norfolk, Virginia Friday, May 21, with a Strike Group of seven squadrons and 6,000 marines and sailors, as the first element of a new American military buildup in the Middle East, determined by President Barack Obama. It will reach peak level of four-to-five aircraft carriers, most opposite Iranian shores, in late July.
For the first time, the US force opposite Iran will be joined by a German warship, the frigate FGS Hessen, operating under American command. It is also the first time that Obama, since taking office 14 months ago, is sending military reinforcements to the Persian Gulf and Middle East.
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