http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/06/03/AR2010060304859.html
Report says Burma is taking steps toward nuclear weapons program
Saturday, 5 June 2010
By Joby Warrick
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 4, 2010; A08
Burma has begun secretly acquiring key components for a nuclear weapons program, including specialized equipment used to make uranium metal for nuclear bombs, according to a report that cites documents and photos from a Burmese army officer who recently fled the country.
The smuggled evidence shows Burma's military rulers taking concrete steps toward obtaining atomic weapons, according to an analysis co-written by an independent nuclear expert. But it also points to enormous gaps in Burmese technical know-how and suggests that the country is many years from developing an actual bomb.
The analysis, commissioned by the dissident group Democratic Voice of Burma, concludes with "high confidence" that Burma is seeking nuclear technology, and adds: "This technology is only for nuclear weapons and not for civilian use or nuclear power."
"The intent is clear, and that is a very disturbing matter for international agreements," said the report, co-authored by Robert E. Kelley, a retired senior U.N. nuclear inspector. Officials for the dissident group provided copies of the analysis to the broadcaster al-Jazeera, The Washington Post and a few other news outlets.
Hours before the report's release, Sen. James Webb (D-Va.) announced that he was canceling a trip to Burma, also known as Myanmar, to await the details. "It is unclear whether these allegations have substantive merit," Webb, who chairs a Senate Foreign Relations panel on East Asia, said in a statement released by his office. "[But] until there is further clarification on these matters, I believe it would be unwise and potentially counterproductive for me to visit Burma."
There have been numerous allegations in the past about secret nuclear activity by Burma's military rulers, accounts based largely on ambiguous satellite images and uncorroborated stories by defectors. But the new analysis is based on documents and hundreds of photos smuggled out of the country by Sai Thein Win, a Burmese major who says he visited key installations and attended meetings at which the new technology was demonstrated.
The trove of insider material was reviewed by Kelley, a U.S. citizen who served at two of the Energy Department's nuclear laboratories before becoming a senior inspector for the International Atomic Energy Agency. Kelley co-wrote the opposition group's report with Democratic Voice of Burma researcher Ali Fowle.
Among the images provided by the major are technical drawings of a device known as a bomb-reduction vessel, which is chiefly used in the making of uranium metal for fuel rods and nuclear-weapons components. The defector also released a document purporting to show a Burmese government official ordering production of the device, as well as photos of the finished vessel.
Other photographs show Burmese military officials and civilians posing beside a device known as a vacuum glove box, which also is used in the production of uranium metal. The defector describes ongoing efforts on various phases of a nuclear-weapons program, from uranium mining to work on advanced lasers used in uranium enrichment. Some of the machinery used in the Burmese program appears to have been of Western origin.
The report notes that the Burmese scientists appear to be struggling to master the technology and that some processes, such as laser enrichment, likely far exceed the capabilities of the impoverished, isolated country.
"Photographs could be faked," it says, "but there are so many and they are so consistent with other information and within themselves that they lead to a high degree of confidence that Burma is pursuing nuclear technology."
A Washington-based nuclear weapons analyst who reviewed the report said the conclusions about Burma's nuclear intentions appeared credible. "It's just too easy to hide a program like this," said Joshua H. Pollack, a consultant to the U.S. government.
Documentary reveals Burma's Nuclear intent
Trailer for Film
Burma's Nuclear Ambitions - 43min Documentary
journeymanpictures — June 03, 2010 — See Full Film Here:http://www.tuppashare.com/store?p=4070
Top-secret material gathered over a period of five years seems to provide undeniable evidence of Burma's plans to develop nuclear capability on a par to that of North Korea. A jaw-dropping glimpse into the beginnings of a new nuclear threat.
Expert says Burma "Planning Nuclear Bomb"
By ROBERT KELLEY
Published: 3 June 2010
A five-year investigation by DVB has uncovered evidence that Burma is embarking on a programme to develop nuclear weaponry. At the centre of the investigation is Sai Thein Win, a former defense engineer and missile expert who worked in factories in Burma where he was tasked to make prototype components for missile and nuclear programs.
Sai contacted DVB after learning of its investigation into Burma’s military programmes, and supplied various documents and colour photographs of the equipment built inside the factories. The investigation has also uncovered evidence of North Korean involvement in the development of Burmese missiles, as well as Russia’s training of Burmese nuclear technicians.
In collaboration with DVB, American nuclear scientist and a former director in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Robert Kelley, has spent months examining this material. Here he writes in an exclusive report for DVB that Burma is probably mining uranium and exploring nuclear technology that is only “useful only for weapons”. For the full 30-page report, click here.
A remarkable individual has come out of Burma to describe nuclear-related activities in that secretive country. DVB has interviewed this man at length and is presenting his evidence here for all to see. His name is Sai Thein Win, and until recently he was a major in the Burmese army. He was trained in Burma as a defense engineer, and later in Russia as a missile expert. He returned to Burma to work in special factories, built to house modern European machining tools, to build prototypes for missile and nuclear activities.
Sai brought with him some documents and colour photographs of equipment built in these factories. DVB is publishing these photos and has arranged with experts to analyze what they have discovered. Some will no doubt want to weigh in and add their conclusions – no doubt there will be detractors who do not agree with the analysis and our conclusion that these objects are designed for use in a nuclear weapons development program. We invite their criticism and hope that any additional analysis will eventually reinforce our view that Burma is engaged in activities that are prohibited under international agreements.
DVB has hundreds of other photos taken in Burma inside closed facilities, as well as countless other information sources and documents. Background information is given for the very specific information Sai is providing.
In the last two years certain “laptop documents” have surfaced that purport to show that Iran is engaged in a clandestine nuclear program. The origin of these documents is not clear but they have generated a huge international debate over Iran’s intentions. The Burmese documents and photographs brought by Sai are much closer to the original source materials and the route of their disclosure is perfectly clear. The debate over these documents should be interesting in the non-proliferation community.
Who is Sai Thein Win?
Sai was a major in the Burmese army. He saw a DVB documentary about special factories in Burma that had been built by the regime to make components for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD). He worked in two of these factories and felt there was more that needed to be conveyed outside Burma. Sai came out to Thailand to tell the world what he has seen and what he was asked to do. What he has to say adds to the testimony of many other Burmese defectors, but he supplements it with many colour photographs of the buildings and what they are building inside them. In addition he can describe the special demonstrations he attended and can name the people and places associated with the Burmese nuclear program that he visited.
Sai Thein Win reminds us of Mordecai Vanunu, an Israeli technician at the Dimona nuclear site in the Negev desert. Vanunu took many photographs of activities in Israel that were allegedly related to nuclear fuel cycle and weapons development. These photos were published in the Sunday Times in London in 1986. They purportedly showed nuclear weapons activities in Israel at the time. Israel has never confirmed that the images were taken in their facilities; much less that Israel even has a nuclear weapons program. But Vanunu was abducted, tried in an Israeli court and sentenced to many years in prison for divulging state secrets. Sai is providing similar information.
Sai Thein Win holding an impeller for a ballistic missile engine. He designed
the program to manufacture it on CNC machines from Europe (DVB)
What is the Program that Sai Describes?
Sai tells us that he was tasked to make prototype components for missile and nuclear programs. He is an experienced mechanical engineer and he is capable of describing machining operations very accurately.
Sai has very accurately described a missile fuel pump impeller he made because he is trained as a missile engineer. His information on nuclear programs is based upon many colour photographs and two visits to the nuclear battalion at Thabeikkyin, north of Mandalay. The Nuclear Battalion is the organization charged with building up a nuclear weapons capability in Burma. The Nuclear Battalion will try to do this by building a nuclear reactor and nuclear enrichment capabilities.
Buildings under construction at the Thabeikkyin Nuclear Battalion (DVB)
It is DVB consultants’ firm belief that Burma is probably not capable of building the equipment they have been charged to build: to manufacture a nuclear weapon, to build a weapons material supply, and to do it in a professional way. But the information provided by Sai and other reporters from Burma clearly indicates that the regime has the intent to go nuclear and it is trying and expending huge resources along the way.
Factories filled with European equipment
Two companies in Singapore with German connections sold many machine tools to the Burmese government, notably the Department of Technical and Vocational Education (DTVE). DTVE is closely associated with the Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) which is subordinate to the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST). A great deal of information is known about people and organizations in this chain. DTVE is probably a front for military purchasing for weapons of mass destruction; that is to say nuclear, chemical and biological weapons and the means to deliver them, largely missiles.
The German government did not have derogatory information about DTVE when the tools were sold and allowed the sale. Fortunately, although the machine tools were very expensive and capable, they were sold without all of the accessories to make the very precision parts required for many missile and nuclear applications. These factories are only making prototypes and first models of equipment for other research organizations. They are not making serial copies for a production program and they do not do research themselves
The companies believed the machines were to be used for educational and vocational training, but the German government, suspicious about the end use, sent a diplomat and an expert to examine the machines that were installed in two special factories in Burma. The expert was suspicious that the machines would be used for uses other than training; there were no students and no universities nearby, and there were no women students. The expert noted that none of the male students wore military uniforms. DVB has examined the photos and some of the “students” who wore civilian clothes during the expert visit wear military uniforms when the Europeans are not there.
Sai provided recognizable photos of the equipment installers and the Germans during their site visit. This is one of many indications that he was at the factories and that his story is very credible. It is also fortunate that the German government was diligent and visited these factories to verify the end use. The Burmese were probably not telling the whole truth, but the visits allow serious verification of the facts.
A floor plan of the many machinery tools at Factory 2 near Myaing (DVB)
Sai describes equipment the Nuclear Battalion is building
Sai has provided DVB with many photos of material that the Nuclear Battalion at Thabeikkyin is requesting. One of the most obvious ones is requested in an accompanying secret memo from the No (1) Science and Technology Regiment at Thabeikkyin to the Special Factory Number One near Pyin Oo Lwin. It is for a “bomb reactor” for the “special substance production research department” and there are some sketches of what is wanted as well as pictures. A bomb reactor in a nuclear program is a special device for turning uranium compounds into uranium metal for use in nuclear fuel or a nuclear bomb. The pictures and sketches are of such a bomb reactor and one of the pictures has been subjected to high temperature. The paint is burned off and it has been used. It may be a design from a foreign country or a Burmese design. But the need for a bomb reactor in a Burmese Nuclear Battalion is a strong signal that the project is trying to make uranium metal. Whether the uranium metal is used in a plutonium production reactor or a nuclear device, Burma is exploring nuclear technology that is useful only for weapons.
These are ‘bomb reactors’ likely used to convert uranium compounds
into uranium metal for bomb or reactor fuel (DVB)
Sai also provided photos of chemical engineering machinery that can be used for making uranium compounds such as uranium hexafluoride gas, used in uranium enrichment. He describes nozzles used in advanced lasers that separate uranium isotopes into materials used for bombs. He provides pictures of a glove box for mixing reactive materials and furnaces for making uranium compounds. All of these things could have other uses, but taken together, in the context of the Nuclear Battalion, they are for a nuclear weapons program.
A group of Burmese military and civilian workers pose with a
glove box they built at Factory 1 near Pyin Oo Lwin (DVB)
Sai has been told that the regime is planning to build a nuclear reactor to make plutonium for a nuclear bomb. He has seen a demonstration of a reactor component called a “control rod” that fits this story. He has been told that the regime plans to enrich uranium for a bomb and he has seen a demonstration of a carbon monoxide laser that will be part of this enrichment process. He has named the individuals he met and heard from at Thabeikkyin and they can be correlated through open source information with their jobs for the Burmese Department of Atomic Energy. Many are frequent visitors to IAEA grant training projects. He himself was tasked to make nozzles for the carbon monoxide laser. He actually knows less about the chemical industrial equipment seen in his photos than we can judge, but his overall story is quite interesting. It is also clear that the demonstrations and explanations that he has seen are quite crude. If they are the best Burma can do they have a long way to go.
How does Sai fit into the overall Burma story?
Sai is a mechanical engineer with experience in machining parts on highly specialized and modern machine tools. These machine tools make items that are very precise and can be used in nuclear energy programs or to make missiles. Sai is not a nuclear expert and he has little to say about the things he made, or that his factory made other than what he was told about their uses. He does provide photos of items that would be used in the nuclear industry to process uranium compounds into forms used in the nuclear weapons development process. These photos or his descriptions could be faked, but they are highly consistent with the uses he suggests.
Sai received a degree as a defense engineer in Burma. He then went to Russia to train in missile technology at the prestigious Bauman Institute in Moscow. He can document all of this. His friends went to Russia as well and studied nuclear and chemical technology at the Moscow Institute of Engineering Physics (MIFI) and the Mendeleev Institute of Chemical Technology. MIFI was the main training institute for Soviet nuclear weapons designers for many years. The ones who studied chemistry at Mendeleev are probably the ones who are most important in building the special equipment that Sai knew about.
Stories about a nuclear reactor in Burma
There have many wild stories about a nuclear reactor in Burma. It is clear that Burma and Russia considered building a 10 Megawatt (10 MW) research reactor in Burma in 2000. It is also clear that this deal was not closed and that Russia announced only intent to build a 10 MW reactor around 2008. This reactor has not been built and Russia is highly unlikely to approve such a deal unless Burma signs a new special agreement with the IAEA. This agreement is called an Additional Protocol and Burma is very unlikely to sign it because it would give the IAEA the access it needs to discover a clandestine nuclear program in Burma.
Furthermore, a 10 MW nuclear reactor is a very small concern for proliferation. Such reactors are common in the world and they are simply too small to be of serious proliferation concern. They can be used to teach students how to work in the nuclear area, but they are not appropriate to rapidly make any serious quantities of plutonium for bombs. IAEA has standards for which reactors are especially suitable for plutonium production and this proposed reactor is below that limit. It is appropriate only for nuclear technology training and the production of medical radioisotopes. Local production of medical isotopes is one of the main reasons for reactors in the 10 MW class around the world. Burma could use this reactor for training, but reports that it bought a 10 MW reactor from Russia are clearly untrue, and stories that they want to build one of their own for a bomb program are nonsense.
The idea that Burma is building a larger reactor, like the alleged one Israel destroyed in Syria, is more interesting. This could be a plutonium production reactor, like the 25 MW (thermal) one that North Korea operated in Yongbyon. The fact that North Korea would consider supporting nuclear programs outside its own borders, in client states like Syria, is of serious concern when evaluating Burma. North Korea does have a memorandum of understanding to help Burma build intermediate range ballistic missiles but their role in the nuclear program is only anecdotal.
Is Burma violating its international agreements?
The most important agreement that Burma must satisfy is its agreement with the IAEA. It signed an agreement with the IAEA in 1995 that it would not pursue nuclear weapons under a carefully defined standard international legal agreement. A supplement to this agreement, a so-called Small Quantities Protocol, said that Burma had no nuclear facilities and very small amounts of nuclear materials, which it did not even have to itemise. As a result of this declaration, which was accepted by the IAEA, there are no nuclear safeguards inspections in Burma. There are some IAEA visits to Burma, because Burma is a recipient of IAEA scientific grant money for humanitarian purposes. Some of these grants train Burmese scientists for nuclear activities that could enable them to produce nuclear materials, but these are not the majority of the grants.
Burma has certified that it has no nuclear facilities, has minimal nuclear materials, and has no plans to change this situation. The information brought by Sai suggests that Burma is mining uranium, converting it to uranium compounds for reactors and bombs, and is trying to build a reactor and or an enrichment plant that could only be useful for a bomb. There is no chance that these activities are directed at a reactor to produce electricity in Burma. This is beyond Burma’s engineering capabilities. It is up to Burma to notify the IAEA if these conditions have changed. Clearly, if it is trying to secretly build a bomb and is breaking these rules it will not be voluntarily notifying the IAEA.
Burma has also purchased high quality machine tools from a German machine tool broker in Singapore that can be used for weapons of mass destruction manufacture. These tools could be used to make many things but they are of a size and quality that are not consistent with student training, the declared end use.
The Department of Technical and Vocational training is a front for weapons procurement and is associated with the DAE and MOST. All of these departments, programs, and people associated with them, should be sanctioned and prohibited from buying anything that could contribute to weapons programs.
What is the state of Burma’s nuclear program?
We have examined the photos of the Burmese nuclear program very carefully and looked at Sai’s evidence. The quality of the parts they are machining is poor. The mechanical drawings to produce these parts in a machine shop are unacceptably poor. If someone really plans to build a nuclear weapon, a very complex device made up of precision components, then Burma is not ready. This could be because the information brought by Sai is not complete or because Burma is playing in the field but is not ready to be serious. In any case, nothing we have seen suggests Burma will be successful with the materials and component we have seen.
What is significant is intent. Burma is trying to mine uranium and upgrade uranium compounds through chemical processing. The photos show several steps in this intent. Burma is reported to be planning and building a nuclear reactor to make plutonium and is trying to enrich uranium to make a bomb. These activities are inconsistent with their signed obligations with the IAEA.
Even if Burma is not able to succeed with their illegal program, they have set off alarm bells in the international community devoted to preventing weapons of mass destruction proliferation. The IAEA should ask Burma if its stated declarations are true. If these allegations appear real there should be follow-up questions and inspections of alleged activities. This effort will be hampered by Burma’s failure to sign the Additional Protocol. Under the current Small Quantities Protocol Agreement, IAEA has no power to inspect in Burma.
Burma is also trying to build medium-range missiles such as SCUDs under a memorandum of understanding with North Korea. SCUDS are not likely to carry a Burmese nuclear warhead because first generation nuclear warheads are usually too heavy and large for the SCUD missile. But there is little reason to embark on SCUD missiles and nuclear weapons other than to threaten ones near-neighbours. Burma is ruled by a junta that has no real political philosophy other than greed. The junta rules for the purpose of enriching a small cadre with the rich resources of the country: teak, gold, jade, other minerals and the labour of the people. Like their model, North Korea, the junta hopes to remain safe from foreign interference by being too dangerous to invade. Nuclear weapons contribute to that immunity.
Conclusions
DVB has interviewed many sources from inside Burma’s military programs. Many other researchers are interviewing former Burmese military people, for example Dictator Watch and Desmond Ball with Phil Thornton. They have provided anecdotal evidence pointing to a Burmese nuclear weapons program. Sai has clarified these reports and added to them with colour photos and personal descriptions of his visits to the Nuclear Battalion. He trained in Moscow in missile technology along with friends who trained in nuclear technology who later vanished into the Nuclear Battalion of Thabeikkyin. All were trained in some of Russia’s first quality institutes.
The total picture is very compelling. Burma is trying to build pieces of a nuclear program, specifically a nuclear reactor to make plutonium and a uranium enrichment program. Burma has a close partnership with North Korea. North Korea has recently been accused of trying to build a nuclear reactor inside Syria to make plutonium for a nuclear program in Syria or North Korea. The timeframe of North Korean assistance to Syria is roughly the same as Burma so the connection may not be coincidental.
If Burma is trying to develop nuclear weapons the international community needs to react. There needs to be a thorough investigation of well-founded reporting. If these reports prove compelling, then there need to be sanctions of known organizations in Burma and for equipment for any weapons of mass destruction.
Kelley, 63, a former Los Alamos weapons scientist, was an IAEA director from 1992 to 1993, and again from 2001 to 2005. Based in Vienna, Austria, he conducted weapons inspections in Libya, Iraq, and South Africa, and compliance inspections in Egypt, Turkey, South Korea, Taiwan, Syria, Tanzania, Pakistan, India, and Congo, among others.
Myanmar 'nuclear plans' exposed
Defectors say Myanmar's military is pushing ahead with efforts to aquire nuclear weapons [EPA]
An investigation by an anti-government Myanmar broadcaster has found evidence that it says shows the country's military regime has begun a programme to develop nuclear weapons.
Journalists from the Norway-based Democratic Voice of Burma (DVB) have been gathering information about secret military projects in Myanmar for years.
But they say recent revelations from a former army officer show that the military government is pushing ahead with ambitions to become a nuclear power.
The allegations are contained in a special documentary produced by the DVB being aired by Al Jazeera.
On Thursday evening, shortly before the film was due to be broadcast, US Senator Jim Webb announced he was postponing his scheduled trip to Myanmar in response to allegations in the documentary.
"They really want a bomb, that is their main objective"
Sai Thein Win,
former Myanmar army major
"Until there is further clarification on these matters, I believe it would be unwise and potentially counterproductive for me to visit Burma," Webb, who is the Democratic chairman of the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, told reporters in Bangkok.
Burma is the former name of Myanmar.
Webb had been due to fly to Myanmar late on Thursday for talks with detained pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi and senior officials in the country's reclusive military junta.
Defector speaks out
The producers of the DVB documentary say evidence of Myanmar's nuclear programme has come from top-secret material smuggled out of the country over several years, including hundreds of files and other evidence provided by Sai Thein Win, a former major in Myanmar's army.
On Al Jazeera
The film Myanmar's military ambitions can be seen on Al Jazeera from Friday, June 4, at the following times (GMT):
Friday: 0600; Saturday: 1900; Sunday: 0300; Monday: 1400; Tuesday: 0530; Wednesday: 1900; Thursday: 0300.
Sai Thein Win says he was deputy commander of a highly classified military factory that was the headquarters of the army's nuclear battalion.
But he says he decided to defect and bring top-secret evidence of the project with him.
"They really want a bomb, that is their main objective," he says in the film.
"They want to have the rockets and nuclear warheads."
His smuggled files were shown to Robert Kelley, the former director of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), who told the producers they showed clear indications of a programme to build atomic weapons.
"It appears it is a nuclear weapons program because there is no conceivable use for this for nuclear power or anything like that," he says.
Suspicions
However other experts like John Isaacs, executive director of the Washington-based Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, are not ready to make a definitive conclusion yet.
Photos and other documents show equipment used in the alleged nuclear programme [DVB]
"I would say there are a lot of suspicions," Adams told the DVB. "But it's hard to say there's actual proof of what Myanmar's trying to do."
Sai Thein Win says he decided to defect after seeing a previous report by the DVB about the Myanmar regime's extensive network of secret underground bunkers and tunnels.
The broadcaster gathered thousands of photos and more defector testimony, claiming some of the tunnels are used as command posts, while others – some are large as two football fields – are used for storing secret weapons and equipment to protect them from aerial bombardment.
The tunnels have allegedly been built with the help of expertise from North Korea – a link that has drawn growing international attention.
'Bunker mentality'
Aung Zaw, an exiled Myanmar journalist and editor of the Thailand-based magazine Irrawaddy, told Al Jazeera there was substantial evidence Myanmar had been buying conventional weapons and missiles from North Korea, but the secret nature of the ruling regime makes it very difficult to get at the truth.
A network of tunnels and bunkers is allegedly being built with North Korean help [DVB]
"They live in a bunker mentality," he said of the ruling generals.
"They live in fear of an invasion by the West - that's why they relocated the capital to central Burma."
A recent UN report on the sanctions against North Korea banning nuclear and ballistic missile activities, found what it called "suspicious activity in Myanmar" and experts say that might build up the case for an IAEA inspection.
"In many ways North Korea is a parallel to Burma," the Centre for Arms Control's John Isaacs says in the DVB film.
"It's a poor country with a weak economy and starvation at home, and yet they manage to gather resources to build a nuclear weapon."
The DVB investigation agrees, but also points out it was not that long ago when few people imagined that countries like North Korea, Iran and Pakistan would also become nuclear powers.
Evidence Points to Burma's Nuclear Weapons 'Intent'
By SIMON ROUGHNEEN Friday, June 4, 2010
BANGKOK—There are regional and international security implications arising out of fresh evidence that Burma is seeking nuclear weapons and is in breach of a UN arms embargo on North Korea.
Referencing the nuclear issue, US Sen. Jim Webb on Thursday canceled his scheduled trip to Burma.
Burmese soldiers carry flags as they march during the Armed Forces Day parade in Naypyidaw in March. (Photo: Reuters)
“It would be inappropriate and counter-productive for me to go at this time,” Webb told journalists at a Thursday press conference in Bangkok. While the substance of the nuclear issue and the potential breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1874 remain to be clarified, Webb said, “There is enough for now in these two allegations, which need to be resolved,” before he could reconsider going to Burma.
While allegations about a junta nuclear weapons program have emerged in the past, the latest reports are backed by documentation and photographs supplied by Burmese army defector Maj Sai Thein Win. A news documentary about the issue ran on Al-Jazeera today and is based on work carried out by the Democratic Voice of Burma news agency. Sai Thein Win had to flee Burma after superiors suspected that information about missile-building and uranium enrichment programs were being leaked. He says “that they really want to build a bomb, they want rockets and nuclear warheads.”
American nuclear scientist Robert Kelley, a former director in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the international nuclear watchdog, said he spent months examining the material supplied by Sai Thein Win and concluded that the projects outlined in the material are “useful only for weapons.”
In an overview published on the DVB website, Kelley said: “The total picture is very compelling. Burma is trying to build pieces of a nuclear program, specifically a nuclear reactor to make plutonium and a uranium enrichment program. Burma has a close partnership with North Korea.”
The seven-member UN panel monitoring the implementation of sanctions against North Korea said in a report last week that Pyongyang is involved in banned nuclear and ballistic activities in Iran, Syria and Burma.
After an early May visit to Burma, US assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs Kurt Campbell, said that the junta leadership had agree to abide by UN Security Council Resolution 1874, but that "recent developments" called into question its commitment. He said he sought the junta's agreement to "a transparent process to assure the international community that Burma is abiding by its international commitments."
"Without such a process, the United States maintains the right to take independent action within the relevant frameworks established by the international community," he said.
Whether or not the Burmese regime has the know-how to actually realize its apparent nuclear ambitions is another issue. According to Kelley, “Nothing we have seen suggests Burma will be successful with the materials and component we have seen.”
Speaking to Al-Jazeera, other nuclear experts such as John Isaacs, who is executive director of the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, said that there is not yet “actual proof” of what the regime is trying to do.
However, the documentation assessed by Kelley suggest intent on the part of the junta. The regime has not signed the IAEA's Additional Protocol, meaning that the agency has not power to set up an inspection of Burma's nuclear facilities under the existing mechanism known as the Small Quantities Protocol.
The hour-long Al-Jazeera/DVB report gave details of a nationwide labyrinth of underground tunnels, believed to be shelters for the military in the event of an attack from outside or demonstrations at home. The total cost of the tunnels, built in collaboration with North Korean military advisers, is estimated in the range of US $3 billion.
Reflecting on the documentation and photographs illustrating the extent of the tunneling, long-time Burma watcher and author Bertil Linter said, “I have never seen anything like this come out of Burma before.”
Photo released by the Democratic Voice of Burma, defector Sai Thein Win, second from left in front row, is photographed with others in an undisclosed location in Burma. (Photo: AP/DVB)
Webb believes that the US should maintain its policy of engagement with the junta, even as the new allegations come across as a slap in the face for the Obama administration, which has also sought to promote global nuclear non-proliferation The UN recently wrapped-up a four-week Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference, a process largely driven and led by the US. It was attended by 189 countries including representatives from the junta's UN embassy in New York.
Webb's stillborn proposed visit to Burma comes as the junta gets ready for elections scheduled some time this year, which Webb believes will help Burma make a transition toward being “ a more open society.”
However, after his recent visit to Burma, during which he met with Suu Kyi, Campbell said, "What we have seen to date leads us to believe that [upcoming] elections will lack international legitimacy." Asked on Thursday whether or not he would have met with Suu Kyi or the National League for Democracy, if he had gone ahead with the visit, Webb said that there are other opposition parties that he could talk to, adding that “the NLD has ceased to exist.”
Webb arrived in Thailand after visiting South Korea, where tensions are high after the sinking of a South Korean naval ship in March by a North Korean torpedo. Forty-six South Korean sailors were killed in the attack.
Speaking on Friday at the Shangri-La dialogue, a gathering of defense and security officials and experts in Singapore, South Korean President Lee Myung Bak said that because of “the graveness of the North Korean nuclear issue and the Cheonan incident,” the international community needs “to respond firmly to the North's threats to peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia." A North Korean envoy said in Geneva on Thursday that war could erupt at any time on the Korean peninsula, blaming what Pyongyang believes to be belligerence on the part of South Korea.
In Bangkok, Webb urged China to press North Korea to “come clean” about its role in the sinking of the Cheonan. Lee said, "The Cheonan incident in particular requires the North to admit to its wrongdoing and promise that similar incidents will not be repeated."
However China has remained non-committal despite South Korean and US pressure for it to respond by condemning Pyongyang. "We need to dispel the impact of the Cheonan incident, gradually ease tension and especially avoid a clash," Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said last week.
Webb said China should do more to persuade countries such as North Korea and Burma to reform, adding that “it is to China's advantage that these countries remain closed off.” Webb added that China's growing economic clout means that it needs to take on a more responsible role in international affairs. Webb denied that he was advocating a US confrontation with China, whose premier has just concluded a two-day visit to Burma where he discussed trade and investment issues, as well as Burma's forthcoming elections and internal ethnic politics.
Photo released by the Democratic Voice of Burma, shows Sai Thein Win at the control panel of an industrial machine at an undisclosed location in Burma. (Photo: AP/DVB)
During the Al-Jazeera report, defectors from the junta said that gas and oil revenue from the Yadana field has given the junta the financial resources necessary to increase military spending. The income available to the ruling generals is set to increase dramatically in the coming years, as the much larger Shwe Gas field comes on stream.
According the Shwe Gas Movement website, “Burma’s military regime would stand to gain $24 billion over the 20-year contract, or $1.2 billion per year,” from the Shwe field, from which gas will be piped to China. A joint Indian-South Korean consortium is involved in the Shwe project.
The Yadana field has generated an estimated $7.5 billion in sales to Thailand, but if the junta is using this money to develop missiles and enrich uranium, it could mark the beginning of a regional arms race, according to author Linter.
Other defectors interviewed for the report said that the junta wants to develop missiles with a 3,000 to 4,000 kilometer range, possibly even able to reach the US military base on Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean.
Countries closer to Burma might have more reason to be worried however. “Thailand and India will have to counter this,” he said, adding that “this will definitely be seen as a threat in Thailand.”
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