Vol. 10, Issue 449, June 18, 2010
Demise of the Turkey-Israel Alliance
The Shock-Waves May Roll over US-NATO Mediterranean, Black Sea Holdings
RecepTayep Erdogan
The ripples thrown up by the breakdown of the Turkey-Israeli military and intelligence alliance, long a Western security fixture in key regions of the world, are blowing up into a storm that could swamp American, European and NATO interests in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea and beyond.
Not only is Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayep Erdogan proving unstoppable in his abrupt turn from West to East, but he has invited the leader of the Lebanese Hizballah, Iran's fiery proxy Hassan Nasrallah, for a red carpet welcome in Ankara.
This visit - reported Thursday, June 17, to be imminent - would make Turkey the first NATO member to open its arms to - and establish direct relations with - an entity classified by the United Nations as a terrorist organization with umpteen violations of UN resolutions to its name.
Under the direct command and protection of the dread al Qods Brigades of Iran's Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), Hizballah has grown into the most powerful militia in the Middle East with clandestine branches and active hit teams in many parts of the world.
Nasrallah's invitation to Ankara was not only a slap in the face for Israel, whose leaders up to three weeks ago still believed they could preserve their military and intelligence ties with Erdogan's Turkey, but one in the eye for the Obama administration too and its chosen policies for Iran and Syria.
Will Ankara pay for Russian hardware with Caucasian, Black Sea strategic assets?
Just a few hours after Washington extended its sanctions to additional Iranian banks and IRGC-associated companies, the Turkish prime minister stood ready to shake the hand of the Guards' live-wire Lebanese operative. So what are those sanctions worth?
It would be the second time this month that Erdogan had sabotaged a Washington move against Tehran. The first time he partnered Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in an enriched uranium deal with Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad for pre-empting UN Security Council sanctions.
On Wednesday, June 16, Erdogan called the Turkish Defense Industry Implementation Committee – SSIK for a meeting in Ankara to shelve 16 bilateral military and intelligence agreements with Israel.
All of these contracts were designed to upgrade and modernize the Turkish armed forces in many areas, including sales of advanced interceptor missiles, battle tanks, missile ships, electronic warfare and surveillance equipment, unmanned aircraft, upgrades of fighter jets and air-to-air missiles - services and items worth a total of $5-7 billion.
Still in need of these systems and services, Ankara will now turn to Moscow, which is eager to step into Israel's shoes - for a price. Wednesday, June 15 Rosoboronexport, Russia's arms exporters, announced their bid in a Turkish tender for air defense missile systems with an offer of long-range S-300 and S-400 systems, the equivalent of American Patriot missile interceptors.
Moscow's price tag will undoubtedly include strategic assets in the Caucasus and Black Sea regions, as well as well as profitable deals in petroleum and gas, in return for selling Ankara top-of-the-line hardware of which its armed forces stand in immediate need.
Stopping NATO secrets from leaking to Ankara - and beyond
Erdogan knows that to sustain his alliance with Iran and its Middle East allies, he must promise them his army, air force and navy can protect them against an Israeli attack coming from the direction of Turkey.
Wednesday, June 16, Ankara revoked a row of contracts with Israel including one allowing the Israeli Air Force to access Turkish air space. With Russian S-300 and S-400 interceptor missiles, Turkey will be able to intercept any Israeli spy planes and bombers flying overhead on their way to attack its new allies in Tehran, Damascus and Beirut.
Israel's senior military and intelligence planners arrived in Washington this week, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military, intelligence and Washington sources report. They are urgently discussing with their American opposite numbers ways to stop NATO's intelligence secrets reaching Ankara, especially confidential data relating to terrorism, Iran, Syria, Hizballah, and security updates on the countries in the Mediterranean basin, including southern Europe and North Africa.
The Israelis warned US officials that their military and intelligence exchanges with Turkey, reduced now to low level, will soon be cut off altogether and they have begun gearing up to reclassify Turkey from Israel's sole Middle East ally to an intelligence target.
Knowing exactly where he stands in this respect, Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah has armored himself with a unique three-tiered protective system which is manned by hand-picked guards and Iranian agents deployed in Beirut for that purpose.
Nasrallah's bunker-to-bunker safety net
To escape the fate of Hizballah's special security commander, Imad Mughniyeh, who was assassinated in an upscale neighborhood of Damascus on Feb. 15, 2008, Nasrallah lives in a bunker under the Shiite suburb of Beirut. For four years, since his last war against Israel, he has addressed his Shiite followers from a large video screen and never traveled outside the city or been seen in public - except for one time.
On February 25, he was summoned to Damascus to share an epic occasion with his two sponsors, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Syrian president Bashar Assad, at which all three ceremonially signed a military pact.
The three big security services of Iran, Syria and Hizballah stood on high alert to guarantee Nasrallah's safety until he returned to his Beirut hideout.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's counter-terror sources disclose that on Thursday, June 17, when this issue went to press, the same three Middle East agencies - plus the Turkish MIT - were alerted to secure the Hizballah leader's second foreign trip in four years and make sure he reaches his date with the Turkish prime minister and returns safely to his Beirut bunker.
The arrangements were made by the Turkish MIT spy agency's director, Hakan Fidan, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources reveal. He arrived in Beirut earlier this week with personal guarantees for Nasrallah's safety from the Turkish prime minister.
An Erdogan loyalist, Hakan Fidan was appointed to his post as recently as the end of May.
In Beirut, he turned over various means of travel to Ankara with the Hizballah leader. One suggestion was for Nasrallah to be travel in one of three Turkish military jets flying to Beirut to pick him up - too many for the Israeli Air Force to risk challenging without provoking a full-blown war.
Another proposal was for him to drive overland from Lebanon to Syria and on to Turkey, with Prime Minister Erdogan greeting him at the Turkish-Syrian border.
According to some intelligence sources in Beirut and Damascus, the Hizballah chief secretly left Beirut some days ago and could turn up in Ankara at any moment.
Turkey Aims to Displace US in Middle East
Works on New Bloc Segregated from America's Influence
Abdullah Gul
Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Recep Erdogan's relentless drive to lead Turkey to superpower status in the Middle East for the second time in two centuries has brought him to the threshold of a threefold historic dilemma, DEBKA-Net-Weekly reports.
1. To achieve this status, he must lead a group of nations which defer to Ankara. So where to start? Should he try and whip the Arab nations of Egypt, Syria and the Palestinians into line behind Turkey, or go for the extremist Iran, Syria, the Lebanese Hizballah and the Palestinian Hamas in Gaza?
Both would be ranged against the United States and intrinsically anti-Israel. In either case, they would be introduced to the world at first as economic associations.
2. Erdogan has set his face finally to jettisoning Turkey's diplomatic ties with Israel, but has still to fix a date. The cutoff of bilateral ties has begun and promises to be comprehensive, casting aside economic, shipping, economic, tourist relations and ditching the last remnants of the military cooperation built up in decades of friendship. Wednesday, Ankara announced 16 bilateral agreements had been shelved. Turkish President Abdullah Gul disclosed that a plan for further sanctions was in the works and would be implemented in stages.
(More about this in HOT POINTS of June 17 below)
Diplomatic severance appears to have been left to the last stage, depending on which Muslim bloc Ankara decides to promote.
Campaign against Israel as key to sway over Muslim world
Many circles in Ankara, including military leaders, are strongly opposed to the rupture of ties with Israel which have brought benefits to Turkey in many fields, but DEBKA-Net-Weekly’s sources in Ankara confirm that Erdogan’s mind is made up. Judging from his past behavior, opposition does not put him off and he will make good on his decisions even if he has to go it alone – especially with regard to Israel. He sees his antagonism towards the Jewish state as the key to sway over the Muslim community of nations.
3. Theoretically, there is, of course, a third way. For years, the Turkish prime minister has coveted the role of bridge between the various Middle Eastern peoples, such as Arab and Iranian, as well as East and West, Europe and the United States, Christendom and Islam. This task he sees as conferring great influence and high prestige.
Our Mideast sources call option No.3 “theoretical” for, despite Erdogan’s efforts, the role of mediator and bridge builder has mostly eluded him and, according to their information, he is impatient to move on from talk to decisions.
Ankara discounts Turkey’s membership of NATO as a factor in judging the first two options. For the third, it might be marginally beneficial.
Wheeling and dealing for Cairo's auspices
Erdogan's secret envoys have spent the past week in Egypt trying to talk its leaders round into convening an early Turkish-Arab summit with the promise of a broad and glittering attendance that would include Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah, Syrian President Bashar Assad, Jordan's King Abdullah, and all the Palestinian leaders – Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas, his bitter rival Hamas political secretary Khaled Meshal and Islamic Jihad leader Ramadan Abdullah Salah.
The minor Arab rulers would be swept up in their train.
Erdogan's messengers offer Cairo three arguments:
A. In the current international climate of condemnation for Israel, the pro-Turkish, pro-Arab elements in the Obama administration and Europe will prevail over the pro-Israeli lobbies and persuade Washington and Brussels to welcome a vibrant new Middle East entity dedicated to opposing Israel.
B. "We and the Arabs are a hundred times more important than Israel," the Turks explain "and the US and Europe will be forced to deal with us on our terms."
C. Assad's participation in this summit, to which Iran will not be invited, will mark the first crack in the Damascus-Tehran alliance, thus restoring Egypt to its proper position in the region and at the head of diplomacy for resolving the Palestinian question.
The fourth argument was unspoken but well understood, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Middle East sources. Turkey does not want to see Iran attain a nuclear bomb any more than Egypt and the rest of the Arab world. But since nothing is happening to stop the Islamic Republic's inexorable drive toward this objective, Erdogan maintains that the Arab-Sunni Muslim world's best defense against a nuclear-armed Iran would be a strong Arab alliance led by Turkey and Egypt.
Checking the options in Damascus
While one group of Erdogan's envoys lobbies Egyptian leaders, a second is busy in Damascus.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's intelligence sources, this second group is charged with exploring with Assad and the Lebanese Hizballah secretary general Hassan Nasrallah - and through them with Tehran - the chances of establishing a Turkish-Arab-Iranian lineup as an alternative to the Turkish-Egyptian-led formation.
There, too, a theatrical summit is under discussion. It would bring Turkish, Arab, Iranian and Palestinian leaders together in the Syrian capital.
Should the Damascus track beat out the Cairo option, our Middle East analysts conclude, it would bring Erdogan back to the Iranian-Syrian fold. Since the flotilla incident of May 31, the Turkish prime minister and his spokesman have made great play of Iran's ineffectiveness on the Palestinian front compared with Ankara's activism. There was a suggestion that relations of rivalry were developing between Ankara and Tehran.
Before then, the Syrian ruler gained prominence by leading a Third World front against the American initiative for tough UN sanctions against Iran.
The two alternative postures indicate that the Turkish prime minister is at a critical crossroads. Whichever course he chooses, their most striking common factor is the zero value he attaches to the United States, Saudi Arabia and Israel as players in his schemes. Ankara, Cairo, Damascus and Tehran are putting their heads together as though the United States counts for very little in the region and Israel for even less.
(Separate articles in this issue discuss the impact of Obama's muscle-flexing moves in the region and Israeli leaders' heedlessness of happenings in its neighborhood).
Middle East Rulers Are Unimpressed by America's Show of Muscle
Political Paralysis Shackles US Military Might
USS Harry S Truman
For five days, from Sunday June 6 through Thursday June 10, the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group carried out naval and aerial war exercises with live ammunition from a spot 50 miles off Israel's southwestern coast - not far from where Israeli naval commandos raided the Turkish MV Mavi Marmara on May 31 precipitating a clash which dropped the Middle East into a new crisis.
The Truman's sixty F/A-18E/F Super Hornet fighter bombers took off day and night to bomb targets set up by the Israeli Air Force at its firing range on the Nevatim Base-28, one of Israel's three principal air force bases, which is located in the Negev desert southeast of Be'er Sheva.
The exercise had 16 American F-16 fighter jets taking off from bases in Germany and Romania, landing at Israeli Air Force facilities, refueling and taking off against with Israeli Air Force combat squadrons. Together, they practiced long-range bombing missions over the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, drilling air-to-air combat along the way.
Both Washington and Jerusalem withheld public exposure of this US-Israeli aerial exercise, which was dubbed Juniper Stallion 2010, because it was a lot closer to the real thing than previous joint war games in the Juniper series. In fact, on instructions from President Barack Obama, all US missile interceptors in the Middle East were on full war alert, including the batteries on US Sixth Fleet vessels on the Mediterranean and the US Fifth Fleet in the Persian Gulf.
The Truman stands by for rising naval-military crisis curve
Israel's missile shield was also on war alert.
The two anti-missile missile systems jointly drilled their ability to repel Iranian, Syrian, and Hizballah missile attacks on US Middle East targets and on Israel.
On Wednesday, June 16, debkafile's military and Washington sources reported exclusively that the USS Harry S. Truman Carrier Strike Group, which was supposed to depart the Mediterranean after the exercise and head out to the Persian Gulf, was ordered to remain in the Mediterranean for now. Intelligence had reached Washington of an expected high curve in naval and military tensions involving Turkey, Iran and possibly Hizballah, against Israel over the Gaza blockade.
Fueling the tensions are Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's preparations to launch a fresh wave of flotillas for Gaza with Iranian participation and subject Israel to broad sanctions and a worldwide boycott campaign. Ankara is suspending bilateral cooperation with Israel in all fields.
On Wednesday, June 16, Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman issued a grim warning. He said Israel could no longer treat the next convoys for Gaza as humanitarian aid operations because they were sent with hostile intent by Israel's enemies.
A few hours after Lieberman's comment, Tehran issued a blanket threat against Israel - and implicitly the United States: Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani said that if Israel or any other party interfered with the Iranian ships destined for Gaza, Tehran would retaliate militarily against unspecified shipping in the Mediterranean and in the Persian Gulf.
Gulf rulers omit US from their defenses against a nuclear-armed Iran
Most strikingly, DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Middle East analysts note, the joint US-Israel show of military might produced none of its desired effects: It failed to stem the rocketing military tensions besetting the region since the Israel-Turkish clash on May 31 over Ankara's Gaza-bound flotilla; nor did it restrain Turkey's headlong drive for domination or ease the political volatility set up by this drive (as outlined in the second article in this issue: Turkey Aims to Displace US in Middle East: Works on New Bloc Segregated from America's Influence).
America's waning military fortunes in Afghanistan and powerlessness to halt Iran's nuclear program are taking a heavy toll on its influence in the Middle East and Persian Gulf.
This was evident from a new working paper presented to five oil emirates (excepting only Oman) by former Kuwaiti National Security Adviser and ex-lawmaker Abdullah Ali Nafisi.
The Persian Gulf states will not be able to withstand the Iranian nuclear threat and Iranian political pressure, he writes, if they continue to operate as six separate states, each with its own small army.
The GCC (Gulf Cooperation Council) has lost its effectiveness and is not capable of dealing with the Iranian threat, says Al Nafisi. Therefore, the very survival of the GCC states can only be assured if the six independent countries integrate into a single political entity, making the Saudi city of Medina its capital.
The Gulf States would have to merge their armies, says the Kuwait strategist. Only a single large army that controls everything that goes on in the Arabian Peninsula and the Persian Gulf would be able to deter Iran.
The most prominent feature of this working paper is its omission of the United States, as though its traditional role of protector of the emirates in times of danger is forgotten, its military might ignored as a non-factor.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's sources in the Persian Gulf stress the Kuwaiti writer would not have released his paper without the nod of royal circles close to King Abdullah.
It was therefore not surprising to hear approving echoes in Riyadh this week, a cautious yet clear Saudi response to the latest Turkish and Iranian Middle East initiatives. As we went to press, our sources report that President Obama has urgently invited the Saudi king for talks. His visit to Washington has been scheduled for June 28.
Netanyahu's Peace Moves Have Nowhere to Go
He Operates in Limbo as Israel Hemorrhages Internationally
Binyamin Netanyahu
Seemingly unaware of the rapidly shifting Middle East sands around them and the changes in the world arena, the heads of Israel's governments are clinging to business as usual on the same old track to nowhere.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu and his National Adviser Uzi Arad are deep in preparations for what they call an "urgent and vital" encounter at the White House with President Barack Obama.
No date has been finalized but it has been tentatively fixed for late June (before or after the Saudi King visits Washington), to replace the June 1 appointment the prime minister missed in order to hurry home from Canada and deal with the flotilla incident of May 31.
Since that incident, in which eight Turks died in a clash between Israeli commandos and IHH activists aboard the Turkish Marvi Marmara, Israel has been plagued by an unbridled worldwide chorus of censure for raiding the ship and condemnation for its siege of the Gaza Strip.
Netanyahu might have been expected to focus his meeting with the US President on ways to stem the river of hate loosed by Israel's enemies and some erstwhile friends; the Jewish state is under a siege as extreme as that enclosing Gaza. But instead, according to the prime minister's aides, he is planning to present the White House yet another stale "peace initiative" geared to an Israeli offer to restore to Damascus parts of the Golan, the small enclave which Syria lost in the 1967 war after attacking Israel.
No sure Obama welcome for Netanyahu's latest peace plan
Netanyahu's aides have convinced themselves that the need for a partial peace accord between Israel and Syria is the most pressing issue on Obama's mind. They are sure the US president wants nothing more than a new magnet for diverting the spotlight from the row over the joint Israel-Egyptian siege of the Gaza Strip in the form of a tool for loosening Syria's links with Tehran and Hizballah.
President Obama is still avid to cultivate President Bashar Assad, say those Israeli officials, even after Syria grabbed the headlines for several crisis-laden weeks by parking 800 Scud D missiles destined for Hizballah on the Syrian-Lebanese border (See DEBKA-Net-Weekly 447 of May 28.).
And indeed, this week, the US president sent a bevy of American telecommunications executives to Damascus, including senior executives from such top firms as Microsoft, Dell and Cisco Systems, shepherded by Alec Ross, a senior adviser of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
This was proof for Netanyahu's advisers that the Syrian question is more important to Obama than the Gaza blockade and Turkish convoys.
Netanyahu's office is placing its trust in Internet diplomacy to open Washington doors. His advisers report that Israel's proposed peace initiative with Syria was not dismissed outright when first broached in Internet communications with Washington and even drew some interest.
Assad is definitely not interested
Asked about the response from Damascus, the Israeli officials admitted there was no sign Assad was willing to consider Israel's plan and embark on direct or indirect peace talks. Neither did he show signs of budging from his close military and other bonds with Tehran and Hizballah - regardless of Washington's technological blandishments. Thursday, June 17, he rejected any peace feelers out of hand and called Israel a pyromaniac, his latest pejorative epithet for Jerusalem.
In an all-out effort to cool international condemnation, the Israeli prime minister turned to the Middle East Quartet's (US, Russia, UN and EU) special envoy, former British Prime Minister Tony Blair. Some say he spent more hours this week closeted with the British diplomat than with his own ministers. Together, they cooked up a "White List, Black List" formula for expanding the lists of goods which Gaza may import for its 1.2 million inhabitants, while banning weapons and items including cement and iron usable for building fortifications and military facilities.
Blair insisted that all the items on the White List be permitted to enter Gaza by sea or land and later, when the Gaza Strip's only airport at Dahaniyeh near Rafah is repaired, by air as well.
European Union and Palestinian Authority monitors would be stationed at all these entry points to Gaza.
This plan, if adopted, would amount to the staged abolition of the Israeli and Egyptian blockades of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip.
However, in one session after another, the plan put forward by Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak failed to win a majority of political-security cabinet ministers when they met on June 16 and 17. The ministers approved the new list of goods for Gaza, but balked at endorsing the proposal for the selective entry of ships to Gaza port even after inspection.
Anti-peace players outplay, outmaneuver Jerusalem
The sea blockade therefore remains in place. Thursday, June 17, Barak relayed a stiff warning to Beirut via US Middle East envoy George Mitchell that there would be consequences if any ships bound for Gaza were allowed to leave Lebanese ports.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's analysts note that the Netanyahu government keeps on dropping well-meaning proposals based on major concessions and territorial withdrawals into a void. None has any hope of a constructive response from the hostile entities they address, such as Syria and Hamas; nor do they offer a cure for Israel's international predicament.
On the contrary, because they see Netanyahu operating from a position of weakness rather than strength, Turkey and Iran ignore his peace overtures, knowing that any time they push hard, Israel can be made to improve its offer and part with more of its remaining strategic assets.
In the same way, Ankara and Tehran are shunting America aside as a Middle East player, ignoring the show of US naval and military muscle in the Mediterranean this month.
So Israel's decision-makers, political and military, find themselves arguing among themselves about how to handle the current crisis and keep relations with the Obama administration on an even keel - on one plane, as real and seminal events rush forward in the Middle East ,on another.
The two planes never seem to converge, because Israel's leaders are not addressing the Middle East realistically as proactive players - any more than they heeded the writing on the wall of Erdogan's Ankara year after year.
The government in Jerusalem appears to think that its untimely and unwanted diplomatic initiatives will be picked up in Washington and manage to overshadow the untoward events going forward in the region. However, given Israel's low international rating and the Obama administrations' waning regional influence, this is a vain hope. Without picking up on the strategic momentum in the region and addressing the new challenges, the Netanyahu government will end up outmaneuvered and outplayed by its most extreme, anti-peace foes.
US-led NATO near Collapse in Afghanistan
Fences Fall on the Road to Taliban's Return to Power
Lt.-Gen. Marc Lessard
"Our legacy is we held the ground here. There is no way, no way the Afghan security forces could've held Kandahar City and its immediate surroundings had we not been here," said Lt.-Gen. Marc Lessard, commander of Canadian Forces overseas, in Kandahar on Tuesday, June 15, while supervising the preparations of 2,800 Canadian Forces personnel for departure from Afghanistan.
Bravely spoken, but what his words mean, say DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources, is that after the Canadian combat troops' exit, there will be nothing to stop the Taliban from strolling back into Kandahar. Preparations for the Canadian unit's departure are already in progress, effectively pulling them out of combat duties. It is a fairly complicated logistical operation that will spread over several months, because it involves moving hundreds of military vehicles and thousands of sea containers.
North of Kandahar, in the Oruzgan province, another NATO force is getting ready to pull out of Afghanistan. This is the Dutch Task Group, which has set a date in August for its exit.
In London, the newly-elected British Prime Minister David Cameron is clearly thinking of a departure date and breaking away from the unwanted war involvement he inherited from Tony Blair and Gordon Brown.
On June 15, he assured the British Parliament, "Our forces would not remain there a minute longer than necessary." Warning there would be more British deaths in Afghanistan this summer (the number rose to 300 on June 15), he also pointed out that the threat to Britain of an Al Qaeda attack from the region had receded.
During his first visit to Afghanistan last week, Cameron was quoted as debunking the argument that British military participation in the war is vital because it prevents Al Qaeda from attacking Britain.
There is no connection between the war in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda's ability to strike at targets in the West, he stressed.
The Kandahar operation is off
This was the first time a British statesman had challenged the premise underlying America's October 2001 invasion of Afghanistan in response to Al Qaeda's 9/11 attacks in America, a premise which brought NATO nations into the "war on global terror" and kept it fighting there for close to nine years.
Only two days earlier, President Obama's close personal aide David Axelrod said: "This mission is about Al Qaeda, about putting pressure on Al Qaeda on both sides of the border, about not letting Afghanistan become a safe harbor, a safe haven, for Al Qaeda again."
But he was unheeded in London, where the new British Defense Secretary Liam Fox told MPs: "British troops will start leaving Afghanistan by early next year."
This means that by the time the American withdrawal draws near in the summer of 2011, most of the 10,000 British troops will be gone from Afghanistan.
The Americans too are having second thoughts about their Afghanistan mission:
Monday, June 14, Jackson Diehl wrote in the Washington Post, "In Kandahar, the US command may be suffering from a failure of nerve," the first time the courage of US troops has been questioned in the course of a war outside America. He was challenging a comment by the US commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, who explained the postponement of the offensive on Kandahar City until September at the earliest by its lack of support from the Kandahar population and local leaders.
Karzai sacks pro-US ministers
DEBKA-Net-Weekly's military sources have not found a single American or allied officer in southern Afghanistan who believes an operation in September or any time later is realistic. Taliban has therefore won the day in Kandahar without a bullet fired.
For the first time since its overthrow in 2001, the Taliban sees a strategic structure taking shape for its return to power in Kabul. The inability of the US-led coalition fighting in Afghanistan and President Hamid Karzai's loyal troops to purge southern Afghanistan of Taliban control or even weaken it has sealed the fate of the war and predetermined the shape of government in post-war Kabul.
It accounts for Washington's non-response to Afghan President Karzai's first move after his White House talks with President Barack Obama, which was to sack the two most pro-American members in his cabinet: Interior Minister Hanif Atmar and intelligence director Amrullah Saleh.
There has been no comment from Washington either to the flood of reports in Washington, New York, London, Kabul and Islamabad that Karzai is striking out for his own deal with the Taliban and Pakistan. The sacked intelligence director is quoted as disclosing that Karzai is talking secretly with the Taliban outside US and NATO purview after losing faith in their ability to prevail in the Afghanistan conflict.
On June 13, London's Sunday Times published a study conducted by the London School of Economics whose lethal findings are encapsulated in the title: Obama and his war policy in Afghanistan: Pakistani puppet masters guide the Taliban killers.
Islamabad's deadly deceits
It is a devastating catalogue of deceptions practiced by the Pakistani military intelligence (Inter-Services Intelligence) agency on the United States, its intelligence service and its generals in Afghanistan. While promising them to help fight the Taliban, the ISI is aiding the insurgents in planning their operations, selecting targets, furnishing their arms and explosives and providing the families of suicide bombers with payouts.
At least half of the 15 members of the Taliban's ruling council, the Quetta Shura (based in Pakistan's Baluchi capital) are senior serving ISI officers, says the LSE report.
According to DEBKA-Net-Weekly's Washington sources, President Obama's administration is short of a figure capable of arresting the American military slide in Afghanistan of the caliber of General David Petraeus, who came up with the "surge" strategy in Iraq in early 2007 to save America from almost certain defeat.
It will be recalled that even there, it was touch-and-go. Only at the last moment did the general manage to persuade President George W. Bush that the Iraqi Sunni tribes fighting al Qaeda were worth backing to the hilt.
In Afghanistan and Pakistan, there are no such tribes to turn to, because they have all been subverted by Pakistani intelligence and are now solidly behind Taliban.
Tuesday, June 15, President Obama was cheered at the Naval Air Station in Pensacola, Florida, when he said in ringing tones, "We will ultimately defeat Al Qaeda and its terrorist affiliates in Afghanistan."
His speech was good for morale, but no one in Washington knew how this objective was to be achieved.
HOT POINTS
A Digest of DEBKAfile Round-the-Clock Exclusives in the Week Ending June 17, 2010
June 11, 2010 Briefs
• Palestinian motorist shot dead after running his Toyota van over two Israeli border policemen in East Jerusalem Saturday. The two officers were injured.
• Bomb attacks kill at least 18 people, including two US soldiers, in Iraq in last 48 hours.
• Afghanistan commander Gen. McChrystal says June Kandahar offensive postponed indefinitely. Operation was keystone of Obama war strategy and 40,000-troop surge.
• Lavrov: Moscow in talks with Iran for new atomic reactors. He confirmed UN sanctions no bar to Russia sending Iran S-300 anti-missiles.
June 12, 2010 Briefs
• Germany asks Poland to extradite suspected Mossad agent in connection with slaying of Hamas agent Mabhouh in Dubai last January. Man called Uri Brodsky arrested in Warsaw at Berlin's request. He is suspected of helping alleged hit squad member obtain fake German passport. Israel: He is receiving the usual consular attention.
• Al Qaeda-associated tribesmen blow up oil pipeline linking Maarib fields to Red Sea Terminal Saturday. Pumping stopped. Yemeni forces bomb tribesmen hiding al Qaeda operatives in same area.
• Al Jazeera accuses Egyptian satellite of jamming its World Cup opening broadcast.
Saudis' open air corridor finds US, Israel immobile on Iran
12 June: Riyadh re-ran its offer of an air corridor for an Israel strike on Iran's nuclear facilities (London Times), to egg the US and Israel on to using it. Arab capitals are badly rattled by the thrusting partnership of the non-Arab Iran and Turkey and want to shock Washington and Jerusalem into action and out of their preoccupation with probing the flotilla incident.
Sources in Saudi Arabia say, "It is common knowledge within defense circles in the kingdom that an arrangement is in place if Israel decides to launch the raid. Despite the tension between the two governments, they share a mutual loathing of the regime in Tehran and a common fear of Iran’s nuclear ambitions."
In the Middle East, the rise of the Turkish-Iranian alliance has not only thrust America and Israel out to the wings of the Middle East stage, but is deeply alarming Cairo, Riyadh, the Gulf emirates and even Syria.
The Saudi air corridor is open but still unused. No one in Washington or Jerusalem is willing or able to order the bombers to take off.
June 13, 2010 Briefs
• A Palestinian Authority TV quiz show defines Haifa as "a Palestinian coastal city". The program's start-up was sponsored by the European Union.
• Al Qaeda suicide bombers and gunmen in military uniforms kill 15 people, take hostages in raid and siege of Iraq Central Bank in Baghdad.
• Moscow sends paras to Kyrgyzstan to defend Russian bases amid mounting ethnic violence in the south. Hundreds killed in clashes between Kyrgyzs and Uzbeks.
Pakistan SIS helps Taliban beat US and NATO in Afghanistan
13 June: US-led NATO forces may soon find their campaign in Afghanistan no longer winnable - with a draw at best, or a Taliban-al Qaeda victory, at worst, terminating the conflict. debkafile outlines four factors which have brought this situation to pass: the Kandahar offensive's postponement, Taliban's acquisition of anti-air missiles and ability to strike anywhere in Kabul, and the Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence Agency's extensive support for the Taliban.
The longer the Obama administration clings to the assumption that cooperation with Pakistan and its intelligence agency is the only course for beating the Taliban and al Qaeda, the more elusive an Afghanistan triumph will be for the US and its allies.
June 14, 2010 Briefs
• US State Dept spokesman endorses Israel's capability to conduct a credible, impartial, transparent investigation. Turkey too has this right, says spokesman "but I'm not aware Turkey has reached this judgment.
• Israeli police Master Sgt. Yehoshuah Sofer, 39, from Beersheba, dies of the wounds sustained when he and his two partners were ambushed by Palestinian gunmen early Monday on Bet Haggai-Hebron road. The other two members of the vehicular patrol were badly hurt in the shooting.
• Erdogan invites Hizballah leader Nasrallah to visit Turkey on Hamas recommendation. He will travel under Iranian Guards protection.
• Israeli fire on Palestinians creeping up to Gaza-Israel border. There was a loud explosion - apparently from device they carried.
• Iran is not worried by new sanctions and will not stop its nuclear program, said Guards chief, Gen. Hossein Salami. EU foreign policy chief Ashton invites Iran's Saeed Jalili for talks on its nuclear program.
• Vast mineral wealth discovered in Afghanistan by US geologists.
• The family of Hamas' captive Israeli soldier Gilead Shalit plans to march on Jerusalem and squat outside the prime minister's office until he is freed after four years without any contact with the outside world.
Iranian Speaker Larijani plans to reach Gaza-Israel border Saturday
June 14: Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani and foreign affairs and security committee chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi are preparing an epic descent on the Gaza Strip next Saturday, June 19 and a tour of the Israeli border debkafile's Iranian sources reveal. Tehran has applied to Cairo for visas for 200 Iranian lawmakers, leaning hard on Cairo for its assent. Larijani is planning to stand up at some point on the Gaza-Israel border fence, flanked by the enclave's Hamas rulers, and deliver a message of hate for Israel and support for the Palestinian Hamas extremists in a provocative challenge to Israeli military patrols on the other side.
http://www.debka.com/article/8848/
Iran's Larijani plans to reach Gaza-Israel border Saturday
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 14, 2010, 11:12 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Egypt 
Gaza Iranian Speaker Larijani
Aims to challenge Israel from Gaza border
Majlis Speaker Ali Larijani and foreign affairs and security committee chairman Alaeddin Boroujerdi are preparing an epic descent on the Gaza Strip next Saturday, June 19 and a tour of the Israeli border debkafile's Iranian sources reveal. Tehran has applied to Cairo for visas for 200 Iranian lawmakers, leaning hard on Cairo
Monday, June 14, Iran submitted a formal request for Egypt's permission to land an Iranian passenger plane at Cairo International Airport or at El Arish in northern Sinai, carrying this large parliamentary delegation and a consignment of food and medicines for Gaza
debkafile's intelligence sources note that if Cairo allows the delegation to enter Gaza, it would be the first time a high-ranking Revolutionary Iranian delegation was ever permitted to tour the Gazan-Israeli border under the eyes of IDF border positions. Larijani is planning to stand up at some point on the border fence, flanked by the enclave's Hamas rulers, and deliver a message of hate for Israel
Meanwhile, the first Iranian aid ship for Gaza
To build up the pressure on Cairo to allow his visit, Larijani Monday instructed four Majlis members to set out for Egypt without delay to try and reach the Gaza Strip and prepare the delegation's grand tour - that is if they receive visas and permission from Cairo
Netanyahu yields on Gaza blockade as well as flotilla probe
June 14: Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, after responding to US pressure for establishing an independent public probe of the May 31 flotilla incident, is also quietly falling back under the international clamor to ease the sea and land siege of the Hamas-ruled Gaza Strip by installing international supervisory mechanisms in place of the Israeli military and navy.
debkafile's political sources note for the first time, Israel has exposed its military activities to a public probe in which international figures take part.
The public commission is headed by former Israeli Supreme Court Justice Jacob Turkel, International Law Prof. Shabtay Rosen and ex-Technion President Ret. Maj. Gen. Amos Horev. The two foreign observers are former First Minister of Northern Ireland David Trimble, currently a UK Conservative Party life peer, and former Judge Advocate General of the Canadian Armed Forces Ken Watkin.
Ret. Gen. Giora Eiland leads a separate probe ordered by the chief of staff.
debkafile's Washington sources report that the Obama administration is weighing various alternatives to Israel's military blockade such as using NATO's Operation Active Endeavour counter-terror forces, composed of US, Canadian and European vessels to which Turkish and Israeli warships would be co-opted. In Luxemburg, European Union foreign ministers declared Israel's siege of Gaza is unacceptable.
June 15, 2010 Briefs
• Obama: We will ultimately defeat al Qaeda and its terrorist affiliates in Afghanistan. He was cheered at Naval Air Station Pensacola, Florida, when he said "We end our Iraqi combat mission this summer".
• Petraeus briefly passed out during Senate Armed Forces committee hearing.
• Ireland expels Israel embassy security officer over forged passport in connection with Dubai killing of Hamas leader.
• UN Secy Ban notes Israel's public flotilla inquiry commission but stands by demand for an international panel.
• Qasam rocket fired from from Gaza Monday night explodes on open ground in Eshkol farm district.
• Two British soldiers killed in separate shooting attacks in Afghanistan.
Shin Bet chief warns against lifting Gaza siege. Hamas has 5,000 missiles
15 June: Shin Beit (Israel's internal security service) director Yuval Diskin sternly warned Tuesday, June 15, that the steps embarked on by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak to ease the Gaza siege gravely imperiled Israel's security.
Transferring inspections of Gaza-bound vessels from the Israeli Navy to international monitors or foreign ports would leave Israel wide open to a "gigantic security breach." On land, he said, Hamas had piled up 5,000 missiles, a few of which could reach Tel Aviv. Most are homemade from raw materials smuggled through the tunnels. Hamas continues to promote suicide killings for war on Israel, although it relegates some attacks to smaller allies.
http://www.debka.com/article/8850/
Shin Bet chief warns against lifting Gaza siege. Hamas has 5,000 missiles
DEBKAfile Special Report June 15, 2010, 5:33 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Gaza blockade Hamas missiles Yuval Diskin
Shin Beit Director Yuval Diskin
debkafile's military sources report: The Shin Beit (internal security) director Yuval Diskin sternly warned Tuesday, June 15, that the steps embarked on by prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu and defense minister Ehud Barak to ease the blockade on Gaza gravely imperiled Israel
He raised the alarm at the Knesset foreign affairs and security committee after not a single security cabinet minister, including retired generals, had raised a hand to halt those steps.
Diskin said a "gigantic security breach" would open up for Israel
He delivered his briefing the day after the prime minister and defense minister decided to allow international teams to inspect cargoes bound for Gaza on the high seas or in Greek or Cypriot ports (as debkafile disclosed Monday, June 14) . It was clear from Diskin's words, that foreign inspections could not be relied upon to detect weapons or strategic materials in the ships' holds - as abundantly proven in
Now the Israeli government was letting itself be squeezed into letting world powers, spearheaded by the European Union and Turkey and cheered on from Washington
The Palestinian terrorist organization Hamas ruling the Gaza makes no bones about continuing its implacable war against Israel Israel
debkafile's military sources identify the long-range missiles as Iranian Fajr-5.
Their strategists still promote suicide killings as a method of war against Israel
The alarm raised by the Shin Bet chief reflects the extreme disquiet spreading through Israeli military and strategic circles over what they see as a prime minister and defense minister letting themselves be pushed around and guided in their decisions by an overwhelming urge to please the Americans and Europeans at the expense of concern for the fundamentals of Israel's security and its defense forces' capabilities.
debkafile quotes members of these circles as warning that Israel is falling back on its national goals - even those promoted public by Netanyahu himself - with no sign of the enemy in Gaza
1. The prime minister insists he is safeguarding the IDF's freedom of action, whereas he is doing the very opposite: By giving up the siege of Gaza , he is depriving the Navy of its operational leeway and curtailing the IDF's freedom to defend the South against attacks mounted from Gaza Israel
2. Netanyahu has vowed an Iranian port must never be established in Gaza , whereas what he is doing is relinquishing Israel
Heavily-armed couple stopped at gate of CENTCOM HQ in Florida
15 June: Two heavily-armed individuals, a man and a woman, stopped at the Bayshore Gate of MacDill Air Force Base outside Tampa, Florida early Tuesday, June 15, with fake IDs, were described later as Caucasians in their mid-20s. The man is an active duty military serviceman on AWOL; the woman has no military connection.
When searched by a robot, their sports utility vehicle was faund to contain three handguns, three "rifle-style" weapons, ammo and military-style uniforms - but no explosives. The incident was official described as not terror-related but no light was shed on the couple's motives for entering this important base heavily armed with fake IDs.
June 16, 2010 Briefs
• State inquiry panel gives government up to end of 2011 to resettle, rehabilitate 9,000 Israeli evacuees from Gaza. Five years after eviction, most still in temporary housing, jobless. One panelist called them victims of appalling human rights abuse.
• Ultra-religious community stage massive protests over Supreme Court ruling sending dozens of parents of Immanuel schoolchildren to jail for flouting its ruling. Court ordered desegregation of schools discriminatory on ethnic grounds, did not accept parents' claim they were ethnically mixed and separated only by diverse Hassidic ideologies.
Iranian threats keep USS Truman in Mediterranean
16 June: The USS Harry S. Truman carrier Strike Group of 60 warplanes and 6,000 seamen has turned course from the Persian Gulf and deployed in the Mediterranean within easy reach of potential flare-ups, after incoming intelligence attested to the Turkish premier Recep Erdogan's determination to give his screws on Israel another turn - or two.
Ankara's determination to break the Gaza siege by force was backed up Wednesday, June 16, by Iran's parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani, who threatened to retaliate against Persian Gulf and Mediterranean shipping for any interference with Iranian Gaza-bound vessels.
In Jerusalem, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman asserted that Israel would no longer respect these vessels as humanitarian projects because their hostile intent is openly avowed by outright enemies.
Washington is concerned about the high risk of a clash with Israel - especially if the Lebanese Hizballah terrorists decide to join the Iranian-Turkish convoy for Gaza.
Such a clash would involve a NATO member-state for the first time.
http://www.debka.com/article/8852/
Iranian threats over Gaza keep USS Truman carrier in Mediterranean
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 16, 2010, 12:50 PM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Iranian Speaker Larijani Israel-Turkey Turkish PM
USS Truman on hand for trouble
The USS Harry S. Truman carrier, complete with its strike group of 60 warplanes and 6,000 seamen, has been ordered to turn course from the Persian Gulf and deploy with the US Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean for the time being, debkafile's military and Washington sources report. The administration's decision was prompted by incoming intelligence attesting to heightened marine and military tensions between
He was solidly backed up from
In
Erdogan is planning more provocative sea convoys for Gaza
Israeli ministers met Wednesday, June 16, to approve these relaxations. The broke for lunch without a decision. Some ministers maintained Israel 's ambassador from Ankara
Early Wednesday,
Terrorist attack from Sinai on S. Israel thwarted
16 June: An Israeli border patrol intercepted and fought off a band of armed terrorists carrying explosives as they crossed into southern Israel through the Egyptian border of Sinai opposite the Israeli desert town of Mitzpe Ramon and Israeli military facilities early Wednesday, June 16. One terrorist was killed in the ensuing firefight - the rest, at least seven, fled back across the border. Investigation will try and determine if they came from Gaza or the al Qaeda cells in Sinai.
http://www.debka.com/article/8851/
Terrorist attack from Sinai against S. Israel thwarted
DEBKAfile Special Report June 16, 2010, 9:27 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: IDF Sinai Terrorists
Mt. Harif, a desolate MidEast flashpoint
A band of armed terrorists carrying explosive devices was intercepted by an Israeli border patrol as it crossed the Egyptian border of Sinai opposite the Israeli Negev desert town of Mitzpe Ramon early Wednesday, June 16, debkafile's military sources report. One of the intruders was killed in the firefight, the rest fled back to the Egyptian side of the border, some of them apparently wounded.
The assailants were challenged and put to flight at their crossing point near Mt. Harif Israel
debkafile's military sources add that the investigation will try and determine whether the terrorists were Palestinians from Hamas-ruled Gaza Egypt and Israel
June 17, 2010 Briefs
• Barak warns Beirut of consequences if Lebanese vessels are allowed to set out from port to defy Israel's blockade on Gaza.
• A majority of security cabinet members rejected Netanyahu-Barak plan to ease the Gaza blockade.
• Hizballah announces Nasrallah's departure for Ankara imminent after security measures in place.
• Egyptian sources: Cairo is coordinating with Tehran the arrival of Iranian ships to Gaza to avert Iranian-Israel naval clash.
Turkey closes airspace to Israeli Air Force. Israel puts IHH on terror watch list
17 June: Turkey will lead a campaign for a worldwide boycott of Israel, introducing sanctions leading to the severance of bilateral relations. Wednesday, Ankara cancelled 16 contracts covering military and intelligence cooperation, including permission for the Israeli Air Force to use Turkish air space.
Israel countered by declaring the IHH, a terrorist entity, exposing this bulwark of the Ankara government to covert Israeli operations. In Washington, Democratic and Republican members of Congress announced there would be price to pay if Ankara continued its hate campaign against Israel and tight ties with Tehran.
Democratic Rep Eliot Engel called Turkey's actions "disgraceful."
debkafile's sources in Washington note that the president's personal adviser on Muslim affairs, Dalia Mogahed, does not share the conviction that the Turkish aid society, the IHH, is in fact a terrorist organization.
Wednesday, its Istanbul HQ scheduled the launch of a big flotilla for Gaza in July. Its new listing empowers Israel's covert agencies and navy to go for its members and ships - at sea and in Turkish ports.
http://www.debka.com/article/8854/
Turkey closes airspace to Israel Air Force, Jerusalem declares IHH terrorists
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report June 17, 2010, 11:32 AM (GMT+02:00)
Tags: Israel-Turkey Turkish boycott campaign US
Turkish airspace closed to Israeli Air Force
In Washington , early Thursday morning (June 17), Democratic and Republican members of Congress announced at a press conference that there would be price to pay if Ankara continued its hate campaign against Israel and tight ties with Tehran
Rep. Mike Pence, the third-highest ranking Republican, said: "There will be a cost if
debkafile's sources in Washington note that while the House and the Senate are getting ready for an active response against Turkey for its deteriorating relations with Israel, the Obama administration is standing still, possibly tied down by friendship with the two contestants in Jerusalem and Ankara. The president may also be influenced by some of his closest aides, who are sympathetic to the policies pursued by Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and support his aspirations in the Middle East and in the Muslim world.
The most prominent member of the pro-Erdogan faction ion the White House is the president's personal adviser on Muslim affairs, Dalia Mogahed, who does not share the conviction that the Turkish aid society, the IHH, is in fact a terrorist organization, as Israel
The way this declaration was aired by the Netanyahu government was harshly criticized by Israel 's security and intelligence sources as too hesitant and uncertain to attract notice, debkafile's sources in Jerusalem
"If Israel
In fact, debkafile's intelligence and counter-terror sources stress the inconspicuous news item was pretty sensational. By listing as terrorists the IHH (Insani Yardim Vakfi), a key component of Erdogan's pro-Islamic AKK government's support system, Israel henceforth defines the group as a target for Israel 's covert and military operations and exposes its leaders to retaliation for continuing violence against Israel
IHH activists were responsible for the violence aboard the Turkish ship leading the blockade-busting flotilla on May 31. Wednesday, IHH headquarters in Istanbul scheduled the launch of an even bigger flotilla for Gaza Israel
Still hesitant,
The day before, the level of confrontation was ramped up by several notches in
They include permission for Israel warplanes to use Turkish airspace and apply to intelligence-sharing arrangements and cooperation in combating terrorism and suspend the longstanding, close military and intelligence cooperation between Turkey and Israel
The two erstwhile allies are left glaring at each other as antagonists, just one step short of declared enemies.
Thursday morning, in a briefing to Turkish journalists, sources close to the Turkish prime minister and the SSK exhibited a very long list of the Israeli and Turkish military projects they had cancelled, including the purchase of advanced Israeli Arrow anti-missile missiles. However, Turkish Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul commented: "Despite the fact that the decision on the shelving of military agreements had been left to the command of the Foreign Ministry, it would not be proper for the ruling administration to decide on the actions of military companies in both countries."
By this remark, the Turkish defense minister left a small gap for the Turkish government to review each contract separately and to decide whether to implement or revoke it depending on the needs of the Turkish army.
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