Tuesday, 1 June 2010
newnations.com
Monthly reports on finance, business, trade,
economics, & political analysis
NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 2ND JUNE 2010
Saddam: Full Circle
We publish our 86th monthly report on IRAQ and our 100th on AFGHANISTAN. We despair that IRAQ is in a dreadful state and subject to naked political power grabs, with the situation doomed to deteriorate, once US forces are finally withdrawn. We forecast that after that, unless the situation improves, an Iraqi general will eventually assume power over the religious Shia and Sunni blocs and the stability that would offer would probably be welcomed!
In AFGHANISTAN the post-9/11 intervention was to achieve three tasks: to stop al Qaeda and arrest or wipe out their top leadership; to prevent this nation being the largest narco-economy in the world; and to introduce and facilitate democracy - that’s human rights, political rights, freedom of speech and the absence of public corruption in the courts, and in government.
After eight years, not one of these objectives has been achieved. Al Qaeda isn’t even in the country any more. Newnations previously supported the war because of the international terrorists achieving sanctuary here. It was in the interests of all nations to close down international terrorist operations, but the truth is as we have seen with al Qaeda, that the intellectual planning can happen anywhere and doesn’t need a remote backward country to survive. The way forward with al Qaeda is good intelligence, good police work and special forces, not conventional ground troops fighting against a guerrilla enemy who are NOT al Qaeda.
If the NATO war aims in Afghanistan are unachievable, then surely it’s time to be shutting down. That means leaving a well equipped and trained AFGHAN army and police and negotiating the best settlement possible with the tribal chiefs.
Hiding Behind France’s Skirts
We point out that MINURSO is the UN’s least effective agency . Set up to organise a referendum of the Western Sahara, nineteen years later it still hasn’t happened, with 100,000 Sahawari refugees living all that time in desert camps in Algeria. Of course the Kingdom of Morocco has opposed the referendum happening , but who would have thought it- has been supported in the Security Council by their patron, democratic France!
Kazakhbashi: Last of the Khans
Central Asia watchers will note the latest news of Nursultan Nazarbayev, unquestioned leader of Kazakhstan, and this years leader of OSCE, is that his considerable powers have been even further extended as we describe.
UK election surprise
A completely new British government is a coalition, which might even become the way of the future, since the vote is divided between three blocs, none of which could achieve an overall majority. But coalitions are the way of many, perhaps most democratic states.
The Unrivalled influence of the Israel lobby
We look at how the lobby have effectively demonised SYRIA again and how polished their operations are. The Saudi Prince who enquired which was the Super-power, Israel or the USA, (when Israel refused to stop illegally building settlements), asked a fair question. We try to answer that.
President Obama’s National Security Strategy
Just published, we review this in terms of the world’s conflicts. The key sentiment for us was the US cannot go it alone:” the burdens of a new century cannot fall on US shoulders alone”
Iran and Sanctions
The entry of Brazil and Turkey supported by South Africa, in brokering the withdrawal of nuclear materials from IRAN to TURKEY to be processed abroad, was held to be a brilliant idea last October when it was the US and friends proposing it. However it didn’t happen then for whatever reasons. But in the context of the National Security Strategy above, this does look rather like ‘sharing the burdens’.
South Africa’s World Cup fever
Understandably it being AFRICA’s first world cup there is much excitement at the forthcoming soccer fest. But some 250,000 foreign visitors are expected to descend on the country, many for the first time. Our report reviews the preparations and also looks as the economy, which appears to be improving and the politics, which may not be.
North Korea: When is a war not a war?
A North Korean torpedo sinks a South Korean naval vessel killing 46 naval personnel. It’s clearly an act of war - the problem is that nobody really knows how to respond. We give a full summary of how we got to where we, indeed the world, currently are on this, in our report on NORTH KOREA.
One for the distaff side in Saudi Arabia
The elderly king of Saudi and the well mature Crown Prince, have seemingly opened a new chapter in the strict Wahhabi religious regime that co-exists with their secular rule in Saudi Arabia. Our report explains how there seems to be change favouring women in that country.
Election Results from the Philippines
Good news for democracy when the Filipinos voted overwhelmingly for reform and clean government, with the election of NoyNoy, the scion of the house of Aquino. However our report explains the hurdles he has to surmount in getting the establishment to change their corrupt ways and how they can impeach him, if he goes too far for their liking.
India groans at the Pakistan Court: ineffective – again!
We report in INDIA the decision of the Pakistan High Court, in releasing the presumed mastermind of the massacre in Mumbai, from which only one attacker survived. This is by no means the first time that INDIA perceives justice to be flagrantly denied to them when a Pakistani court is deciding a terrorist case, where the terror action took place in INDIA.
India,Turkmenistan and a gas pipeline
Negotiations are ongoing about TAPI – a pipeline to pass through the territory of AFGHANISTAN and PAKISTAN en route for India, but another possibility is a sub-sea pipeline bypassing both of those intermediate countries, in our TURKMENISTAN report.
Libya and the return of Pragmatism?
Coinciding with the return of Said Ul Islam al Qadafi, to the public stage in Libya. He has been out of the public eye for a while, but since he is credited with being the voice of reason in that country, his presence and recent statements have been welcome.
Russia beyond Question an International player
We look at the evidence of the above heading and its importance on the world stage.
Turkey’s pivotal role in the Middle East
Even before their intervention in the matter of Iranian uranium stocks, this former colonial power over many of the region’s present trouble-spots, qualifies them to play a role, normally we observe, a useful and constructive one. Currently - and no surprise, they are livid with Israel whose commandos exerted disproportionate force on 31st May, in carrying out a night attack on a flotilla of Turkish small ships, with ‘protestors’ and supplies (not arms), en route to the city of Gaza. A number of Turkish men on board were killed, so international repercussions are likely to follow.
Given President Obama’s comments in his National Security Strategy about not ‘shouldering the burdens of a young century alone’, we would think that TURKEY would make a very good and knowledgeable partner, if not a docile one, in the middle- east and Western Asia.
GO TO
All Country Updated reports
at
Also published on our blog page
Posts
