Letter
Immigration Curbs Are Vital For Britain's Future
By Sir Andrew Green Chairman, Migration Watch UK The Sunday Times, London, 5 September, 2010
Dominic Lawson ("How Tories regret the immigration promise", Comment, last week) was right about the need for welfare reform but he seems to have entirely failed to grasp the significance of the present mass immigration for our society as a whole.
The reality is that we either integrate or we disintegrate, and integration is quite simply impossible with a migrant arriving every minute. The latest figures for net immigration confirm that the UK population is on course for 70 million in 20 years and 80 million in mid century. We must get immigration under control and economic migration must play its part. Not all current economic migrants are essential. Why, for example, are we allowing every year about 25,000 foreign graduates of British universities so stay on for two years competing for jobs against British graduates who face an unemployment rate of nearly 10%? Nor is immigration the long-term answer to skills shortages, as employers recognise.
Net immigration from the European Union has averaged only about 27,000 a year over the past five years while flows to and from the new east European members are coming into balance. This means that EU migration is only about 15% of net foreign migration. The long-term pressures will come from the Third World; tough action is needed on bogus studentsand marriages designed to circumvent immigration controls.
The public feels helpless. It wants action. For the first time we have a government committed to a clear objective to reduce net immigration. All strength to its arm.
Comment
Migrationwatch Response to the IPPR on Immigration and Unemployment
Our briefing papers 3.10 on immigration and unemployment, and 3.11 on immigration and youth unemployment attracted criticism from the IPPR.
In suggesting that we were claiming that correlation between unemployment and immigration also proved causation, the IPPR were attacking a straw man. We made no such claim.
Briefing paper 3.10 reported "A distinct linkage" (paragraph 7). This is clearly true, especially for London where over 30% of the variation of employment is associated with net international migration (paragraph 8). Furthermore, the press release made it clear (final paragraph) that "This is a complex area and other factors such as skills levels and the operation of the Benefit System are important".
Curiously, the IPPR seemed to agree with our main point. On page 7 of their "Anatomy of a Media Story" they say "The fact that employment rates for UK Nationals seem to be falling, or at least not rising, is a concern. The fact that employment rates for non UK Nationals are rising at the same time tells us something about incentives and barriers to work that it is worth taking seriously…" They continue… "Just because there isn't any evidence that immigration is harming employment in the UK doesn't mean that more immigration would be a good thing".
We recognise, and said explicitly in our press release on youth unemployment, that correlation is not proof of causation. However, we would argue that the absence of statistical "proof" does not mean the absence of any causation.
This point was best made in evidence to the House of Lords Select Committee on Economic Affairs by Professor Rowthorn, Emeritus Professor of Economics at Cambridge (paragraph 83):
He disagreed with the clear conclusion that the government had drawn from the DWP study and the previous study by Professor Dustmann. He pointed out that both studies did find relatively large but statistically insignificant effects of immigration on unemployment. He argued that finding effects that are statistically insignificant "does not mean that they are small. It simply means that there is too much noise in the system to estimate them accurately".
It remains our view that it is right and necessary to bring these matters to public attention.
As for the more technical issues, the IPPR's specific criticisms of the approach taken by Migrationwatch in the research in these two papers do not stand up. The principal point the IPPR makes is that the findings only show "that local authority areas with higher populations have both more migrants and more young unemployed people" thus accounting for the strength of the relationship found. This is simply not true, as a cursory analysis of any data shows. For example, Eastleigh in Hampshire and Slough in Buckinghamshire have approximately similarly sized populations, but vastly dissimilar rates of net international migration (a fall of 100 for Eastleigh compared with an increase of 10,200 for Slough, over the period 2003-2009) and very different rates of unemployment.
Because Migrationwatch wished to analyse differences in youth unemployment and net migration at local authority level, it was necessary to measure youth unemployment by the claimant count method (data on a youth unemployment 'rate' at local authority level is generally not available), but in the London Boroughs the relationship between the overall unemployment rate and the rate of immigration from abroad is strikingly similar to the relationship found by Migrationwatch for young unemployed numbers and numbers of immigrants. The consistency of the relationship found is clearly significant.
Press Release
Quarterly Immigration Statistics - Migrationwatch comment
The latest quarterly immigration statistics underline the urgent need for measures to bring immigration under control. The Labour government claimed to have done this; it did nothing of the sort, as today's figures show with:
- net migration rising to 196, 000, an increase of 20%
- and the number granted settlement going up by a huge 37%
- 1000 visas a day being issued to those coming for work and study with a further 500 visas for their dependants
Far from limiting numbers the Points Based System has actually contributed to their increase.
Migrationwatch chairman, Sir Andrew Green said:
'The government is to be commended for their commitment to cap non-EU economic immigration but that can only be part of the effort. If we are to stem the inexorable rise of our population to 70 million within 20 years, of which 68% will be the result of immigration, economic migrants should be expected to leave after four years and their departure recorded. Those who want to stay should qualify through a further points based system.'
A selection of recent media reports
Immigration rules will help stop extremist exploitation, says Damian Green
Tougher immigration rules will make it harder for extremist parties to exploit the issue, Damian...
Telegraph.co.uk (07-Sep-2010)
Quentin Letts - Yesterday In Parliament: Would John Prescott make sense to any snooper?
Our beloved MPs returned for the tiresome two-week September sitting and promptly spent the day talking.
Mail Online (07-Sep-2010)
The crimewave that shames the world
It's one of the last great taboos: the murder of at least 20,000 women a year in the name of 'honour'.
The Independent (07-Sep-2010)
Immigration lessons
Telegraph View: The points-based system introduced by the last government has failed to put the brakes on.
Telegraph.co.uk (06-Sep-2010)
Tony Blair didn't save the Labour Party: he crucified it, and this country
I thought that the most rational reaction to Tony Blairs memoirs was that of the pranksters who have been moving copies in the bookshops to more appropriate shelves such as fiction, crime, fantasy and the like.
Daily Telegraph (06-Sep-2010)
France to strip nationality for killing police: Sarkozy
President Nicolas Sarkozy said Monday he wants to strip French nationality from immigrants if they kill...
Yahoo! News UK & Ireland (06-Sep-2010)
EU ministers vow migration cooperation
Description -- (PARIS) - Six EU governments and Canada vowed Monday to boost cooperation in cracking...
EUbusiness.com (06-Sep-2010)
Immigration minister calls for tougher look at visa qualifications
The UK needs to look harder at who is qualifying for visas after research showed more than a fifth of...
Telegraph.co.uk (06-Sep-2010)
Govt to announce student visas crackdown
The government is to outline a crackdown on people arriving on student visas Monday as it bids to tighten.
Yahoo! News UK & Ireland (06-Sep-2010)
Vicar jailed over sham marriages
A Church of England vicar was jailed for four years today for his part in Britain's biggest sham marriage.
The Independent (06-Sep-2010)
Are foreign students good or bad for Britain?
Immigration Minister Damian Green, faced with the tricky challenge of halving the level of UK net..
BBC Blogs (06-Sep-2010)
Three jailed over sham marriages
... Monday, 06 Sep 2010 A Church of England vicar was today among three men jailed for staging hundreds...
Sourcews UK (06-Sep-2010)
Non-EU student visa system faces crackdown
Immigration minister Damian Green is set to promise "smarter" border controls as he releases...
Yahoo! News UK & Ireland (06-Sep-2010)
Green: Shut down 'bogus colleges'
Green: Shut down 'bogus...
Politics.co.uk (06-Sep-2010)
Non-EU student visa system faces shake-up
Immigration Minister Damian Green is calling for tougher rules for non-EU students seeking to...
Yahoo! News UK & Ireland (06-Sep-2010)
Plight of homeless asylum seekers
Thousands of failed asylum seekers are living in poverty in Greater Manchester, a charity boss has.
Manchester Evening News (06-Sep-2010)
Building work stops a thousand children going back to school
More than 1,000 London children cannot start school today because classrooms are still being...
London Evening Standard (06-Sep-2010)
Sussex vicar Alex Brown jailed for sham marriages
A vicar has been jailed for four years for carrying out hundreds of fake marriages to bypass...
BBC News England (06-Sep-2010)
Bailed violent immigrant on the run
A violent criminal whom British authorities tried to deport to Iraq has gone on the run after being...
Mirror.co.uk (06-Sep-2010)
Student immigration levels unsustainable, says minister
The number of foreign students let into the UK is "unsustainable", Immigration Minister Damian Green will say.
BBC News (06-Sep-2010)
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