The rise of the Tea Party is undoubtedly the most interesting development in American politics since the election of Barack Obama in 2008. The pent-up frustrations of conservative America have burst out onto the political battlefield: we will only have to wait just over a week to see whether it can smash the Democrat majority. There has been a lackluster effort in the UK to emulate this conservative mass movement. Tory MEP Dan Hannan and The Freedom Association have held a few Tea Parties over here, but they are nothing compared to the scale of the phenomenon in the US. It isn’t surprising that the Tea Party concept hasn’t had the same traction on this side of the pond. There are a variety of reasons, ranging from the British public’s relatively positive attitude towards the state to the historic reticence of the British about radical ideology. Perhaps the most significant reason, though, is that Britain already has a Tea Party. It’s called UKIP. The Tea Party is fiercely patriotic, a believer is a small state and lower taxes, tough on immigration and crime, and has a distinctly anti-establishment flavour. Sound familiar? UKIP is a Tea Party in all but name. It is built upon the same conservative frustrations, and exhibits the same hostility towards “the political elite”. The US protesters argue that they are being ignored, that their concerns about public spending and immigration aren’t represented in Washington. UKIP argues along the same lines: politicians in Westminster are out of step with public opinion on issues like the EU and immigration. There are differences, of course. First among them is the fact that the Tea Party is – by and large – a faction of the Republican Party. Some Republican Tea Party candidates are likely to be elected to Congress in the next ten days. UKIP is definitely not part of the Conservative Party, and is very unlikely to win a Commons seat. However, in the coming years UKIP could – in theory – make an impact on British politics in broadly the same way the American Tea Partiers have. Over the course of this parliament Britain faces taxes rises, spending cuts and, let’s be honest, a clear danger of rising crime. Add to that the coalition’s pragmatism towards the EU and the current ambiguity over the level of the permanent immigration cap, and UKIP has a clear opportunity. It isn’t a chance to storm into Westminster, winning multiple seats and becoming a political force in the Commons. Even the most zealous UKIP supporter must know that is extremely unlikely. What the party could do, if its new leader is so inclined, is to act like an engine – to drive the Conservative Party to the Right. At the moment, a lot of Tory Right-wingers are hesitant about the coalition. Prisons policy and defence are the two big sources of discontent, with the EU and electoral reform in the mix too. The MPs are extremely unlikely to defect (although in politics nothing is impossible), but the same cannot be said for some grassroots Conservatives. At the last election neatly one million people voted for UKIP. Those one million were clearly willing to make an electoral protest, whether about the EU, Tory modernisation, tax, immigration, the expenses scandal or anything else they were angry and frustrated about. It is easy to see that number increasing in the next few years, swelled by disaffected Tory voters and members of the squeezed middle classes – the Telegraph’s “coping classes” – angry at rising taxes, loss of benefits and fearful of Ken Clarke’s prisons policy. Even if the number of UKIP voters doubles, our electoral system – whether FPTP or AV – probably won’t translate that into seats. What it would do is to give UKIP a much bigger stick to beat the Tories with. When political parties get hurt, they retreat to their comfort zone. It happened to the Conservatives in 1997, and it is happening to Labour now. If UKIP manages to effectively tap into public discontent, it could turn itself into a populist engine, working to push the Tories Right. A more popular UKIP would threaten the Conservatives in key seats, putting any Tory election strategy in serious danger. UKIP definitely cost the Conservatives some seats at the last election – some estimates put the number at above twenty. Imagine if that was thirty, or forty, or even fifty. It would make a Tory majority very difficult to accomplish. How would Conservative candidates react to this threat? Some would run further to the centre, hoping to compensate for lost voters on the Right. But others would run in UKIP’s direction. That could be even more true if open primaries become more widespread: the American experience shows us how disproportionate an influence a small group of energised, dedicated Right-wingers can wield (especially if less engaged moderates don’t vote in primaries). That is, in all likelihood, UKIP’s best route to finding a purpose. By hurting the Tories enough, and by attempting to hijack the open primaries, UKIP could potentially shift the balance of opinion within the Conservative Party. While it might not lead to the hard-Right conservatism many UKIP voters crave, it would have more chance of success than UKIP trying to break through into Westminster. Of course, it may not happen. UKIP’s new leader – probably Nigel Farage – may take the party in a different direction. But the potential is certainly there. As the coalition ploughs on – and the number of concessions to the Lib Dems increases – it is something that people in CCHQ should spend some time thinking about. A dedicated anti-Tory party of the Right could hurt the Conservatives. Many Tories will be hoping that, whoever wins the UKIP leadership election, the party will stick to its futile quest to become a significant force in the House of Commons.
Britain already has a Tea Party
Monday, 25 October 2010
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Great post.
Good piece, Thomas. UKIP have an opportunity as ‘the resting home for the Tory dispossessed’, one which I think will take them to bigger things. The trouble is that they’re just a bit too ‘bonkers’ for mass appeal at the moment. Farage is an interesting guy but he needs a more moderate, down-to-earth deputy to talk to middle England.