For the avoidance of doubt - by Richard... Thursday, October 21, 2010

For the avoidance of doubt - by Richard... Thursday, October 21, 2010

There are no cuts. I say again, there are no cuts. What the Cleggerons are talking about is a reduction in the rate of increase in public expenditure as compared with the June budget. This is helpfully summarised here (see left) and the source is here.

You will see that the current financial year expenditure is £696.8 billion. By 2014-15, the projected expenditure was to rise to £757.5 billion. Little George is now proposing that this increase is limited £739.8 billion. This now becomes a 17.7 percent "cut", albeit that expenditure is still increasing.

Thus, the language of public expenditure has been redefined. A reduction in the rate of increase is deemed to be a "cut". In fact, by 2014-15, annual expenditure will have increased by £43 billion, up 6.2 percent (not nine, as originally stated). By such sophistry, "cuts" are not actual reductions. They are lower than projected rates of increase.

To prove this, straight from the horse's mouth, page 17 of the full Treasury report (para 1.15) states:

Even after these spending cuts, total public spending (Total Managed Expenditure) in 2014-15 will be higher in real terms than in 2008-09. At 41 per cent of GDP, this will be around the same level of public spending as in 2006-07. Spending on public services in 2014-15 will be higher than 2006-07 levels in real terms.

Repeat after me: "total public spending (Total Managed Expenditure) in 2014-15 will be higher in real terms than in 2008-09". How do they get away with this? "Even after these spending cuts, total public spending ... will be higher ". By any real world definition, these cannot be cuts.

But now the spin machine goes into action. To disguise the fact that, in most of the public sector (such as defence) spending is to increase (mainly to service debt and unfunded pensions), officials – elected and appointed – are now going through the elaborate charade of cutting back highly visible public services, including schools, libraries and police patrols.

With the connivance of the media and the unions, the public is thus gulled into believing that expenditure is being cut. By this means, they hope to divert complaints about the progressive deterioration in public services, as the unproductive "tail" gradually eats up a greater and greater share of the funds.

Nevertheless, as we are overwhelmed by the media gush of ill-informed laments about "cuts", we need to hold onto reality and keep stating: "total public spending (Total Managed Expenditure) in 2014-15 will be higher in real terms than in 2008-09". There are no "cuts". They are an illusion.

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Slime warning - by Richard...

It's always the next day that gets you, although sometimes the day after as well – and that's the downside of going up to the "smoke". With the "cuts" dominating the news, though, this day can't come to an end quick enough, as we tire of reminding ourselves that there are no cuts. Public expenditure is set to rise by nine percent over the next five years.

This, though, is the new language of public expenditure. Year-on-year, it rises and, when the administration trims back the expected rise to a figure less than initially demanded, this is defined as a "cut". And, of course, our gifted officials make sure that this is accompanied by highly visible deterioration in public services, while salaries for the privileged classes continue onwards and upwards.

But then, so do our EU contributions and foreign aid. The grotesquely wasteful Olympics emergevirtually unscathed, while the "colleagues" do their best to undermine our productive base and cripple our economy.

I've asked it before, but it loses none of its force with repetition – and the reason we should not rise up and slaughter them is? The day comes closer to when it ceases to be a question and becomes an instruction.

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Not long in coming - by Richard... Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Britain was hit by freezing temperatures today as the first blizzards of the season hit the north. Overnight and during rush hour this morning much of the north of Scotland and parts of Yorkshire were hit by wintry conditions forcing drivers to slow to a crawl.

But, says the The Daily Mail, forecasters are not predicting a prolonged early cold snap with temperatures set to climb back to the seasonal average by the weekend.

That is as maybe. It is only October and we have a long winter ahead. Even ooop North, in the frozen wastelands of Yorkshire where the sun never shines and they all have funny accents, to get snow at this time of year is not that common.

Already, though, we can say with confidence, "global warming" is on probations. A heavy drop of the white stuff will confine it to the dustbin.

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Well, what a surprise - by Richard...

The Daily Telegraph print edition runs a front-page story headed, "Armed Forces will have to seek French help to fight a war". The on-line version does not share the headline, but the key part of the content remains the same.

"At an Anglo-French summit next month," we are told, "Mr Cameron will discuss with President Nicolas Sarkozy a range of options for greater partnership, including the creation of 'high readiness joint formations' composed of British and French personnel." Mr Cameron, we further learn, "told MPs the summit would produce 'some very exciting steps forward'".

There is the real agenda. This a direct continuation of the post-Maastricht defence policy espoused by Major, and supported by Portillo in 1996, and continued by Bair in St. Malo and beyond. The 1996 agreement was even reported by The Independent at the time.

"Anglo-French military co-operation is thriving in a number of areas, despite the anti-European rhetoric of the Secretary of State for Defence, Michael Portillo," the paper said. "An Anglo- French nuclear committee is said to meet regularly and to have made considerable progress since President Chirac came to power last May, although both sides are secretive about the committee's agenda."

You can bet both sides are "secretive", and they still are. But this is not helped by the current newspapers failing to make the links between then and now. Reporters have no memory of previous events and the media has no institutional memory. Every event is reported in isolation, without reference to the previous, linked developments.

Thus, Cameron is able to talk about "a range of options", as if he was in charge, and had thought about the possibilities himself, rather than having had the Foreign Officer deliver them to him as part of an ongoing plan that is decades old. And that is how we are being sold out – small step, by small step, so slowly that the media doesn't notice and can't join up the dots.

The name of the game is "interdependence". Each member state of the EU is being robbed of the capability for independent action, thus being forced to rely on other member states. Through such a mechanism is the process of political integration driven.

The real irony, though, is that if we were to dispense with the annual payments to the EU - £18 billion and rising, we would not have needed to curtail spending on the Navy in the first place. But, of course, these things must not be mentioned in polite company, where European integration is simply a figment of the imagination of those horrid, uncouth eurosceptics.

So, gradually, we move into the end game. The sell-out will soon be complete, happening under our very noses while the clever-dicks sleep on, leaving Mr Cameron and his euroweenies to succeed where Hitler and the Axis powers never could - the destruction of the Royal Navy as an independent force.

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An evening with defence - by Richard...

So it came to pass that the North went south to attend the great debate. There was a smaller than usual attendance for a Spectator debate, which is interesting in itself, given the high profile of the defence at the moment.

The motion, I think, was part of the problem ... that the armed forces should be scrapped and replaced with the Royal Marines. It was roundly defeated, and deservedly so, and I say that even though I was speaking for the motion.

I tried to turn the debate by arguing that the motion was a proxy for arguing for institutional change, and that the real need was to break away from thinking about our three services and introduce an Armed Forces ethos, task orientated rather that focused on what the services wanted.

The trouble is with these things though, is that the spectator does see more of the game. You sit there, blinded by the lights, in your little bubble of nerves, trying to marshal your thoughts and hoping you do not fluff your lines.

One point, I made was that the officer corps in the WWII Wehrmacht and Luftwaffe trained together and that the officers only specialised after being commissioned. But it was also the case that Albert Kesselring, in command of Luftflotte 2 during the Battle of Britain, then went on to command OB South and mastermind the fighting withdrawal of the German land forces in Italy.

I am not sure the idea went down all that well, but I also went on to point out that the strategic bombing campaign conducted by the allies during the war was fought by RAF bomber command on the one hand and the US Army Air Force on the other. And, of the two, arguably the US Army was more innovative and effective.

The point from all that, and some other more recent examples, is that performance does not depend on the nature of the institution. But another from the war made that point. In Germany, anti-aircraft defences were part of the Luftwaffe. In Britain, they were part of the Army, but under the overall control of Fighter Command. In Germany, paratroops were again part of the Luftwaffe. In Britain, they were part of the Army.

There are loads of other examples which, I think, demonstrate that it really does not matter which service you are in, as long as the function is well defined, and the people in it are properly trained and equipped. The job isn't done better because it is done by any specific service. In the Korean War, the British air component was provided exclusively by the Fleet Air Arm, and so on.

Anyhow, it was entertaining enough, and the dinner afterwards more so. But it was Chatham House rules, so I cannot repeat what any one person said. Nevertheless, the discussion confirms my many impressions of certain high personages. Surprising accord on Afghanistan. There has been something of a learning curve and the original paradigms have been thrown out of the window. We are simply looking for a credible – or any – exit plan.

One really interesting point though was that there was lots of bitching about the cost of the carriers and complaints about them being bought. I made my speech about the European Carrier Group, St Malo and the ERRF ... it was like I'd made a bad smell in the room. They couldn't change the subject fast enough.

I am never sure, therefore, whether these events are worth the time and nervous energy they take. As as an advert for the book and improving its profile, it certainly isn't that rewarding. The Amazon ranking is the lowest its been for some time. However, it does help to climb out of the ivory tower occasionally, and see how the other half live. It is not a pretty sight really, but the beef was actually rather good.

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On my way - by Richard... Tuesday, October 19, 2010

All systems go for the Speccy debate tonite.

Meanwhile, in an entertaining aside, a DECC spokesman was contacted today about the claim inThe Daily Telegraph that Huhne was seeking an extra 44,000 wind turbines. DECC denied any knowledge of the claim. "Looks to us as if it was idle speculation," she said.