Thursday, 11 November 2010

Currency Lessons from Argentina:

Every Man for Himself

By Jeff Clark

Thursday, November 11, 2010

"What do you think of my country so far?" Gabriela asked.

This is my first trip to Argentina. Our plane landed a couple hours earlier, and
 our driver took us to within a couple blocks of our rented apartment in the
 upper-end Recoleta district of Buenos Aires. So I had plenty of time to form
 a first impression.

She was asking my opinion, but she was looking for something else.
"Please tell me you don't see what I see," her eyes said. "Tell me you don't see
the litter in the streets, or the torn-up sidewalks. Tell me you don't see the unwashed
children tapping on the taxi windows, asking the passengers for spare change.
You don't see the graffiti-stained walls. Please tell me you see something good in
 this city."

"Sweetheart," I replied, as I leaned forward and kissed her on the forehead,
 "It reminds me a lot of San Francisco."

Gabriela smiled the way every woman smiles when she knows her man is dodging
the question, but she's still appreciative of the dodge.

Buenos Aires is not the city my wife remembers – the city she spoke so proudly of after
 returning from a visit 19 years ago. Today, the pace is busy, but not productive.
The streets are dirty. The gentlemen, whom she bragged would wear sport coats and ties
to go outside and grab the morning paper, are now wearing sneakers and jeans to the
restaurant on Sunday night.

It is less glamorous than my wife remembers. But it's not nearly as bad as it was six
 years ago.

"The first thing that happened," my wife's uncle Sergio told me about the crisis,
"is everyone lost compassion for each other." It was all about getting what they
wanted for themselves. Nobody else mattered. You couldn't get money out of the banks.
You couldn't buy groceries to feed your family. You couldn't buy gas to get to work.
You couldn't pay the utilities. You had to take what you could get, often at the expense
of other people.

The government said, "You can't have your money. We're taking it." So crimes increased –
especially burglary and kidnapping. After all, if the government doesn't respect the laws,
why should anyone else?

This mindset is still prevalent in the country today. Indeed, the biggest fear among the
businesspeople I have spoken to in Buenos Aires was the government would not honor
its contracts.

Crime is still a problem. Not so much in Buenos Aires, but certainly in the suburbs –
where burglary and kidnapping are as common as sunrises and sunsets.

Compassion for other people has made a comeback. Indeed, I doubt there is a more
affectionate place on the planet than Buenos Aires. "Be careful though," Uncle Sergio
warns, "they may hug you with one arm while picking your pocket with the other."

The important lesson to learn here is in a currency crisis, it's every man for himself.
You cannot count on the kindness of strangers. Prepare for it just as you would for any
 other emergency. Be sure you have plenty of food, water and cash to sustain your family
for at least a month – two months is even better. A good supply of alcohol and tobacco
is useful for bartering.

Don't count on the government to live up to its promises. Indeed a healthy suspicion of
the government is a good thing. And, don't expect law enforcement to come to your
 rescue if the need arises. They'll have their own problems.

The bottom line is, at the onset of a currency crisis you and your family are on your
own. Be ready for it.

To be continued…

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark
Further Reading:

Six years ago, Argentina faced a currency crisis Jeff called economic
 Armageddon.

"And as difficult as it is to accept," he wrote, "we may soon face the same
thing in the United States." Get a head-start on preparing yourself if the
dollar collapses, and read more about Jeff's trip to Argentina here:
A Blueprint for the U.S. Currency Crisis.
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