Sunday, 14 November 2010

Moneynews.com


Five Stock Market Changers
to Watch This Week

Featured Story: Trump: ‘I’d Love to Have a Trade War with China’


  • G20 falls flat: President Obama left Korea Friday with a trade deal in tatters, some angry words for China over the yuan, and backpedaling to defend the Federal Reserve from charges it is manipulating the dollar. Look for blowback from a major trading partner at any moment.
  • Retail sales: Crushingly bad earnings in the previous week have put stocks on a teeter-totter. As Thanksgiving approaches, and with it Black Friday, expect investors to be especially nervous about retail sales figures (Monday 8:30 a.m.).
  • Industrial output: Factories have been gearing down for the past few months as the burst of activity from inventory restocking slowed. Continuing weakness would hurt economic growth projections and revive fears of a double dip, hurting stocks (Tuesday 9:15 a.m.).
  • Leading indicators: All of the chatter about quantitative easing has meant “risk on” for traders so far. That commitment to a new bull run has been wavering, so any evidence of a real economic revival would be welcome. Leading indicators from the Conference Board might push sentiment already in play either way (Thursday 10 a.m.).
  • Inflation watch: Two indicators out this week, the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Price Index, potentially add fuel to fears of building inflation in the U.S. economy. The Fed insists deflation is the problem, but rising prices for commodities (in part fed by a weakening dollar) will surely come home to U.S. consumers (Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively, both at 8:30 a.m.)



Trump: ‘I’d Love to Have a
Trade War with China’

Real-estate mogul Donald Trump is fed up with China’s unfair trading practices, and he’d be happy to see the United States retaliate in kind.

“The Apprentice” show creator lambastes President Barack Obama for saying we want China to succeed. “That statement is absolutely terrible, unthinkable,” Trump tells Fox News.

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“Can you imagine Ronald Reagan making that statement? China is succeeding off our money. We’re making so many products in China and then paying China so much money to buy those products.”

As a result, China is building new cities bigger than our own, Trump says.

He notes that our huge trade deficit with China — $27.8 billion in September — stems largely from the artificially low level of the renminbi.

“We’ve fallen into the Chinese trap, and now we’re destroying the dollar to compete with them,” Trump says. “We should keep the dollar strong and should tax Chinese products.”

Trump counts himself a staunch supporter of free trade. “But we don’t have free trade with China. It will literally destroy this country if we don’t get smart quickly. They’ll do it with a smile, and our people will have no idea what’s happening.”

That’s why “I’d love to have a trade war with China,” Trump says. “If we do no business with China, we’ll save a lot of money. We’re losing a fortune to China.”

Of course, he fails to mention that with China standing as the largest foreign holders of Treasury securities and a huge source of cheap imports, we would likely suffer as much as the Chinese from a trade war.

Trump is concerned about the impact of a weaker dollar. The dollar’s weakness will create instability and inflation, he says.

“A loaf of bread is going to cost $20 soon. A candy bar is going to cost $10. Look what’s happening with oil – our lifeblood,” Trump says. “It’s going through the roof. That’s a combination of China and OPEC, which is laughing at us.”

Not everyone sees the dollar-yuan relationship as so dire. The yuan just climbed to its highest level against the dollar in 17 years amid speculation China’s central bank will allow its currency to rise faster.

“International pressure has had a big impact on recent faster gains in the yuan,” Liu Dongliang, a Shenzhen-based analyst at China Merchants Bank, tells Bloomberg.

“Regulators are tightening monitoring on hot-money inflow channels, which will pave the way for faster appreciation.”

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