Wednesday, 17 November 2010
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NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 17 NOVEMBER 2010
Sudan: A referendum with a threat of war
African wars had for many observers been relegated from Division One crises to something less: always terrible for civilians, certainly with implications for Africa generally, particularly for the western aid agencies, but not in the same geostrategic bracket as say the potential for conflict over Iran, or North Korea, Israel-Palestine, and the on-going mess in Iraq.
But here is something different where oil is a major item, involving China and the USA backing different sides (serious enough in itself), and with the politics of water involving a host of east African nations seemingly ranged around the African south, whilst Egypt is a major player and on this issue close to the Arabic north.
The as yet undefined borders between north and south approximate to being where the North African nations, Moslem and conscious of their history as nations, interact with many of the new, former colonial nations of black Africa.
Sudan is a quarter the size of the USA and since independence 54 years ago the North and South have fought two full-scale civil wars, with much other conflict in the region. We describe the issues. There are good reasons, which we review why war is not inevitable, but any follower of geopolitics will see how close to the line it may go.
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