Under-estimation - by Richard... Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Under-estimation - by Richard... Tuesday, December 07, 2010

To add to their woes, areas of North Yorkshire underwent prolonged electricity blackouts this evening, possibly reflecting a system under serious stress. Demand is considerably above expectations, reaching a peak of 60GW yesterday evening – with spot prices at £423 per MWh, compared with minimum cost level at less than £40.

What is also significant is the temperature graph (illustrated above), which shows estimates in three bands, with the actual out-turn also shown. And what is evident is that the current low temperatures are well below the lowest band predicted – still more evidence that this cold weather has caught the authorities out.

Meanwhile, Scotland is taking another hit. Contacts in Dunfermline gave us precise depth measurements – 33 inches of snow to date (cumulative). Drifts, of course, are very much deeper.

The only compensation is the Ecologist (prop. Zac Goldsmith) squawking about "Big Oil" paying for the climate change exhibition in the Science Museum – something you read on this blog - while The Independent is lamenting the more "neutral" tone.

But if the warmists are now in disarray, it is only because they – like the authorities – are still failing to spot the signs. Even last year we were noting that "global warming" was coloured white and measured in inches. By the end of this current spell, it is going to be measured in feet. We should enjoy their discomfort.

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Follow the money - by Richard... Monday, December 06, 2010

"The misuse of CERs is undermining EU's credibility in its fight against climate change ... " saysNew Europe. That, of course, makes several assumptions, the first being that the EU has any credibility. But the more immediate issue is that the misuse of CERs is having any significant effect. It should. After all, this is a major scandal.

But, apart from Booker, neither the media nor the sceptic blogs seem right interested. So another billion-dollar fraud – like REDD – goes unchecked, while the warmists gear up to line their pockets with another scare. As always, follow that money ... there doth the slime reside.

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A tidal wave of stupidity - by Richard...

The "hottest year" is a miasma. Yet the spending goes on, the regulation continues unchecked and the brown-soft-squidgy-stuff-for-brains MPs continue to sell us out from the luxury of their over-heated offices. And this happens as UK temperatures are set to plummet again. We are really starting to feel the cold, day-after-day, when even the central heating does not fully cope.

Completely oblivious to the piles of steaming ordure on his own doorstep, Gordon Brown is reinventing himself as the great statesman. The coming decade could witness ''the decline of the West'' if Britain and other Western powers fail to respond to the rise of Asian economies like China, he says. The thing about such pronouncements is – tested against similar profundities made throughout history – is that they are invariably wrong.

No end of brighter and far better informed people look at China and other Asian economies and see nothing but a highly unstable bubble. Yet, such is the power of the myth that the likes of Brown will continue with his own brand of warnings for as long as prattlers are prepared to listen.

The ultimate indictment, I suppose, is that under his very nose, the wealth of the working population declines, while the benefits-and-thieving classes prosper under the protection of the indolent and over-paid police. And, if the average guy in the street still can't see what is coming, the latest tax hike might help concentrate minds. Breath is not being held, however.

One small comfort is that the Met Office is admitting to being slightly wrong on some of its long-term climate projections – although it rushes to tell us that the rest of them, like their forecasts for this winter, are perfectly sound.

Interestingly enough they were concerned about "the shutdown of the Atlantic Ocean's conveyor belt". What they should have been concerned about is the shutdown of their own brains – and noted that the coming issue is the shutdown of society. Above-the-line projections are most often wrong, but you usually find in history voices from the "little people" that have it right.

And they, on this freezing Monday morning, would have it that the tidal wave is coming, but it ain't water. As we see with the foolish Hancock, the greater threat is the tidal wave of stupidity – of which there is an endless supply.