By Barry Rubin, GLORIA January 30, 2011 There is no good policy for the United States regarding the uprising in Egypt but the Obama Administration may be adopting something close to the worst option. This is its first real international crisis. And it seems to be adopting a policy that, while somewhat balanced, is pushing the Egyptian regime out of power. The situation could not be more dangerous and might be the biggest disaster for the region and Western interests since the Iranian revolution three decades ago. Experts and news media seem to be overwhelmingly optimistic, just as they generally were in Iran’s case. Wishful thinking is to some extent replacing serious analysis. Indeed, the alternative outcome is barely presented: This could lead to an Islamist Egypt, if not now in several years. Turkey needs to decide whether it is a civilized nation worthy of EU membership, or whether it is still the evil empire that had to be stopped at the gates of Vienna. It is well known that posting stories or fantasies on the Internet that involve shooting up a school or killing the President of the United States will draw rapid attention from law enforcement agencies. It is similarly not a good idea to make movies or write novels in which identifiable people are killed, with the exception of enemies of one’s country. As an example, it was acceptable to depict the killing of Saddam Hussein in Hot Shots Part Deux. It was also acceptable to depict the President of the United States (Jimmy Carter) as being endangered by terrorists in Black Sunday, with the clear understanding that those planned to kill him and everybody else in the stadium were evildoers who had to be stopped by the agent played by Robert Shaw. It is also acceptable to write a story such as Tom... An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I’m Worried That Others Aren’t Worried 1) How do you judge the Egyptian protests? The battle lines are being drawn in the US. WaPo and the NYT and the Obama administration is siding with the street. The GOP, at least this GOP leader, is siding with Mubarak. I am with this guy. Better to control the change through Mubarak than to support the revolution because there is no way of knowing who will take over. T Belman (CNN) – GOP Conference chairman Thaddeus McCotter voiced his support for Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak Friday in a statement released on his website. The Republican congressman from Michigan likened demonstrations in Egypt to “Iran’s 1979 radical revolution.” He cautions that those who “will be tempted to superficially interpret the Egyptian demonstrations as an uprising for populist democracy” should instead “recall how such similar initial views of the 1979 Iranian Revolution were belied by the mullahs’ radical jackbooted murderers.” McCotter, the chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee,... Events have moved fast in Lebanon. The country now faces the prospect of a government controlled by Hizbullah and consisting solely of the movement and its allies. Parts of Lebanon looked in danger of slipping into chaos on Tuesday, as angry Sunnis took to the streets for a “Day of Rage” in protest of what they called Hizbullah’s “coup.” They were responding to the securing of a parliamentary majority for Hizbullah’s preferred prime ministerial candidate, Najib Mikati. Mikati received the backing of 65 members of the 128-member parliament earlier this week, clearing the way for his appointment as prime minister. This is because the real, currently... The more the layers are peeled back, the more we see the hand of Iran behind what is unfolding in the Middle East. In stark, bitter contrast to Obama’s indifference to the popular Iranian uprising, Obama has almost immediately engaged in events on the ground in Egypt, and it’s not good. His silence about the brutal, murderous putdown of its people by the Iranian mullahcracy translated to his tacit support and spoke volumes. Obama became part of the problem, not part of the solution. He gave religious barbarism the free hand. Iranian protestors had a direct message for America’s president: “You’re Either With Us or With Them.” Obama’s most consistent response to Iran (and North Korea’s hostile moves) has been to ignore them and hope that proven evildoers will behave themselves. Wrong. The... The American government secretly backed leading figures behind the Egyptian uprising who have been planning “regime change” for the past three years, The Daily Telegraph has learned. By Tim Ross, Matthew Moore and Steven Swinford 9:23PM GMT 28 Jan 2011. The Daily Teleraph The American Embassy in Cairo helped a young dissident attend a US-sponsored summit for activists in New York, while working to keep his identity secret from Egyptian state police. On his return to Cairo in December 2008, the activist told US diplomats that an alliance of opposition groups had drawn up a plan to overthrow President Hosni Mubarak and install a democratic government in 2011. The secret document in full The crisis in Egypt follows the toppling of Tunisian president Zine al-Abedine Ben Ali, who fled the country after widespread protests forced him... Extremist takeover in Egypt would put Israel in ‘wholly different position,’ security official warns The security official made it clear that Israel’s peace treaty with Egypt constitutes an important strategic asset, “which enables the IDF to focus on other theaters.” The defense source said that the IDF would have to dedicate major resources in order to devote any attention to the Egyptian front as well. “It is no secret that the IDF focuses on certain theaters and earmarks most resources to them,” the official said. “The Egyptians are only addressed on the margins. We are holding discussions, including updates relevant to recent years, yet without a doubt Egypt is not considered a theater that requires attention.” ... Demonstrators Gather in Central Cairo – NYT Protesters fled a volley tear gas in Tahrir Square on Saturday. More Photos » CAIRO — Civil revolt continued for a fifth day in Egypt on Saturday following a night of violent clashes and a presidential vow of reform as several hundred antigovernment demonstrators gathered in central Cairo in the morning and police rifle shots could be heard ricocheting off the walls of nearby buildings. [What is the plan to prevent the Muslim Brotherhood from coming to power?] US president says US will “continue to stand up for the rights of Egyptian people”; Robert Gibbs says Egypt must address “legitimate grievances.” WASHINGTON — Stepping up pressure on a stalwart but flawed Middle Eastern ally, US President Barack Obama said Friday night he had personally told Egypt’s long-time leader to take “concrete steps” to expand rights inside the Arab nation and refrain from violence against protesters flooding through the streets of Cairo and elsewhere. The conversation followed closely on a televised speech in which Mubarak, in Cairo, announced he was sacking his government to form... 
Special Report: The Revolt in Egypt and U.S. Policy
What’s puzzling here is that a lot of the enthusiasm is based on points like saying that the demonstrators are leaderless and spontaneous. But that’s precisely the...Turkey’s “Valley of the Wolves: Palestine” Implied Terroristic Threat?
by Bill LevinsonThe Muslim Brotherhood is waiting in the wings
By Rarry Rubin, GLORIA
It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate it is not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing conclusions.
2) Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Ikhwan?
So far the uprising has not been led by the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the only large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the leading force after a while. The leadership would have to decide that it is facing a revolutionary situation and that this is the moment for an all-out effort. But if it does so and fails there will be a terrible repression and the group will...GOP Conference chairman: America must stand with Egypt
The birth of Hizballahstan
But the protesters’ rage was insufficient to prevent Mikati’s accession. He received the official presidential decree confirming his appointment on Tuesday, even as protesters blocked the Beirut-Saida road and shots were fired in the Sunni stronghold of Tripoli.Obama’s Dhimmi Carter Moment
America’s secret backing for rebel leaders behind uprising
He has already been arrested by Egyptian security in connection with the demonstrations and his identity is being protected by The Daily Telegraph.Israel fears radical takeover in Egypt
Hanan Greenberg,YNET
A fundamental change of government in Egypt may lead to a “revolution in Israel’s security doctrine,” a defense official told Ynet Friday night, as protests against President Hosni Mubarak’s rule continued to intensify.Demonstrations continue on Saturday
By KAREEM FAHIM and ETHAN BRONNER
Multimedia
David Kirkpatrick talks about the close call he had while with Nobel laureate, Mohamed ElBaradei, the kinds of police on the streets in Egypt and the possible prospects for the Mubarak government.Obama to Mubarak: Take “concrete steps” on rights
“Surely, there will be difficult days to come, but the United States will continue to stand up for the rights of the Egyptian people and work with their government in pursuit of a future that is more just, more free and more hopeful,” Obama said.
Ted Belman
Jerusalem, Israel
Sunday, 30 January 2011
ElBaradei, Iran’s bomb man
Peter Macdiarmid/Getty Images
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