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The following is research published today from MEMRI’s Special Dispatch Series and the MEMRI Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor.
Special Dispatch No. 3621—Egypt/Jihad & Terrorism Studies Project
Jihadists View Upheaval in Egypt as Opportunity, Call for Military Organization in Sinai
The upheaval in the Arab world, especially the events in Tunisia and Egypt, both of which resulted in the resignations of these countries' leaders, is being followed closely by jihadi operatives, ideologues, and online supporters. The jihadists welcomed the ouster of president Hosni Mubarak, whom they considered a tyrant and apostate, and responded by discussing the role they are to play in Egypt's future. Their responses can be divided into two main categories: political-ideological and operational. The following report will address the operational opportunities the jihadists see in the new situation in Egypt.
Some in the global jihad movement consider the upheaval in Egypt an opportunity to promote global jihad and to elevate the war against the Arab regimes to a new level. Specifically, they consider the anarchy in Egypt to be a chance for jihad groups to establish a presence there, after a long absence of such groups following an extensive crackdown by the regime. The numerous jihad operatives reported to have been released from prison in the wake of Mubarak's ouster, as well as those rumored to have escaped in the midst of the chaos, may well avail themselves of this opportunity.
More importantly, the global jihadists see the instability in Egypt as propitious to the establishment of operational jihad organizations, especially in rural areas, particularly the Sinai, in light of the security vacuum there resulting from the military's preoccupation with keeping general order.
The complimentary full text of this report is made available from the JTTM. To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5045.htm.
AQIM Announces Its Solidarity With Libyan Revolution, Calls On Libyans To Remain Steadfast And Escalate Their Jihad And Revolution To Oust Qadhafi
On February 24, 2011, Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) released a statement in support of Libya's revolution and expressing solidarity with the Libyan people's revolution against Libyan leader Mu'ammar Al-Qadhafi.
In the statement, AQIM said that they were following events in Libya, with mixed feelings of joy – at the Libyan people's rebellion and the imminent end of the Libyan tyrant (i.e. Qadhafi) – and sadness – at the cowardly massacres being perpetrated against innocent Libyans.
The statement said that these massacres of his own Muslim people, perpetrated by Qadhafi with the aid of African mercenaries, reveals the true face of such oppressive tyrants who have lied and accused the mujahideen of targeting and killing innocent people.
The complimentary full text of this report is made available from the JTTM. To read the full report, visit http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=4494¶m=GJN.
Fear of Renewed Muslim-Copt Tensions in Egypt over Murder of Coptic Priest
It is reported that hundreds of Copts demonstrated outside the church in the village of Shatab, in the Asyut Governorate, after Coptic priest Father Daoud Boutrus was found dead in his home there on February 22, 2011, and that security and military forces were sent to the scene to restore calm.
The Asyut branch of Al-Gama'a Al-Islamiyya issued a communiqué in which it condemned the murder, "regardless of who perpetrated it, and regardless of his motivations." The organization called on the Copts to demonstrate forbearance and not to accuse anyone of the crime until the results of its investigation were released, in order to avoid playing into the hands of any instigator wishing to incite clashes among the Egyptian people.
The complimentary full text of this report is made available from the JTTM. To read the full report, visit http://www.memrijttm.org/content/en/blog_personal.htm?id=4497¶m=GJN .
Special Dispatch No. 3620—Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor
In Second Installment of 'Message of Hope and Glad Tidings to Our People in Egypt,' Al-Qaeda Deputy Leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri Denies Al-Qaeda's Involvement in Alexandria Church Bombing, Calls Upon Muslims To Differentiate Between Christians
On February 24, 2011, Al-Qaeda's media wing Al-Sahab released the second installment of an audio recording from the organization's second-in-command, Ayman Al-Zawahiri, titled "Message of Hope and Glad Tidings to Our People in Egypt." In his message, which is 35 minutes and 48 seconds in duration, Al-Zawahiri reiterates some of the points he made in his first installment, but the majority of his message is focused on the Coptic-Muslim sectarian tension in Egypt.
Referring to the New Year's Day bombing of Saints Church in Alexandria, Al-Zawahiri denies any Al-Qaeda involvement in the attack, instead pointing an accusing finger at Coptic leaders in Egypt, as well as at the Egyptian regime and its security apparatuses. It is these, he said, with the U.S. behind them, that are behind the continuous provocation of Muslims in Egypt – which is, he said, is what led to the church bombing.
Aside from providing historical and political background on Egypt, similar to what he gave in the first part of his message, Al-Zawahiri makes several noteworthy points:
Al-Zawahiri began his message by re-emphasizing the legitimacy of targeting Muslims – or, more correctly, the restrictive circumstances under which Muslims may be targeted. He added that harming Muslims must be avoided during mujahideen operations unless the requirement of jihad makes it necessary for them to become targets, or to be collateral targets.
To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5044.htm.
Special Dispatch No. 3619—Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor
Al-Qaeda Leader 'Atiyyat Allah Al-Libi: Revolutions in the Arab Countries – A Historical Turning Point
On February 24, 2011, the jihadi forum Shumukh Al-Islam posted an article by Al-Qaeda ideologue and leader 'Atiyyat Allah Abu 'Abd Al-Rahman, also known as 'Atiyyat Allah Al-Libi, titled "The Revolution of the Peoples and the Collapse of the Corrupt Arab Order: Smashing the Idol of Stability, and the New Beginning." The article was published by the Al-Qaeda affiliated Al-Fajr media company. Its publication also serves to refute the reports of Al-Libi's death in an October 7, 2010 air strike in Pakistan.
The article, dated February 16, 2011, is the first comprehensive response from the Al-Qaeda leadership to the recent turmoil in the Middle East. In it, Al-Libi expresses satisfaction at the unrest which has swept the Arab countries, and joy over the toppling, thus far, of two leaders, anticipating and hoping that additional Arab and Muslim peoples will take advantage of the chance to topple their regimes. Furthermore, in his view, the current unrest is not merely a temporary crisis, but a watershed that signals the end of the Arab order as we know it and the collapse of the notion of stability in the Middle East.
On the operational side, Al-Libi encourages jihadists to focus on building up a military presence in the Sinai. This is the second time a senior jihadist leader has recommended this course of action there. Al-Libi also urges the mujahideen of Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) to seize the opportunity to topple the regime in Yemen and establish a stronghold in that country.
To a certain extent, the article is evidence that Al-Qaeda is currently in a difficult predicament, from an ideological and political viewpoint. According to Al-Qaeda's ideology, the Arab regimes are considered the arch-nemesis, and the primary justification for, and target of, violent jihad. It would seem that the popular uprisings usurped from Al-Qaeda the role of toppling these regimes, rendering them superfluous. In their defense, Al-Libi explains that Al-Qaeda cannot deploy large armies at the drop of a hat, in order to come to the aid of Muslims. Moreover, he presents a set of updated priorities according to which the West, Israel, and the remaining Arab regimes – the Saudi royal family foremost among them – are Al-Qaeda's raison d'etre, regardless of the fact that "apostate" and "tyrant" regimes were toppled by peaceful means and without the jihadists' help.
To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5043.htm.
Special Dispatch No. 3618—South Asia Studies Project/Taliban/Afghanistan
Taliban Spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid Comments on the Political and Military Situation in Afghanistan, Says: 'Day by Day There is [an] Increase in Our Jihadi Activities; Our Armed Forces are More Disciplined Than Ever Before; We are Countering the Enemy and are Opening New Jihadi Fronts'
The website of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (the Taliban's shadow government) has published an interview with its spokesman, in which he questions the Western claims of military "progress" in Afghanistan.
The spokesman, Zabihullah Mujahid, says in the interview that the Western countries ensured the victory of some Afghans in the September 2010 parliamentary elections so that they can raise demands for dividing Afghanistan.
He also says that U.S. General David Petraeus's claim of "progress" in Afghanistan was meant to give some points to President Barack Obama to claim progress in Afghanistan during his State of the Union speech.
Following are excerpts from the interview:
Question: "Mr. Mujahid, after months of disputes, Hamid Karzai finally announced the so-called 'peoples congregation' (Jirga). Could you please share with us your view regarding it?"
To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5042.htm.
To view these reports, you must be a paying member of the Jihad and Terrorism Threat Monitor Project (JTTM). For membership information, send an email tojttmsubs@memri.org with "Membership" in the subject line.
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