China Confidential
Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005
Thursday, March 17, 2011
Regarding Potassium Iodide Pills
Regarding potassium iodide pills to protect against the harmful effects of radiation exposure, America's NBC TV Nightly News program has made a point of conflating preparedness and prevention, purchasing pills prophylactically with taking them prophylactically, self-defense with self-medication. Taking a product into one's home or workplace does not necessarily mean one is going to take the product into one's body. That the network's chief medical editor, Dr. Nancy Snyderman, seems incapable of understanding and explaining the differences is surprising, leading this reporter to wonder how someone so illogical could have ever graduated college, let alone medical school. Clearly, she never studied journalism or worked on a good high school newspaper.
Tuesday, March 15, 2011
LIVE NEWS FEED FROM NHK-TV
BAHRAIN DECLARES STATE OF EMERGENCY
As VOA reports below, Bahrain's king has declared a three month state of emergency in response to weeks of anti-government protests by majority Shi'ites against the Gulf state's Sunni rulers. The move follows an armed intervention, at the monarch's request, by Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
State television said Tuesday the king has ordered the commander of Bahrain's armed forces to take all necessary measures to stabilize the security situation.
The streets of Manama's financial district were deserted as the announcement was made, with many stores closed and police deployed on major highways.
About 1,000 Saudi soldiers and 500 police from the United Arab Emirates crossed into Bahrain Monday via the causeway that connects it with mostly-Sunni Saudi Arabia. The two neighboring states say they were answering a call for help from Bahrain's monarchy to protect government buildings from opposition protesters.
Predominantly Shi'ite Iran said Tuesday the military intervention in Bahrain is "unacceptable." Bahrain's Shi'ite opposition also has denounced the deployment of Gulf troops as an "occupation."
Bahrain invoked the collective security agreement of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council. But it remains unclear whether other members of the bloc - Oman, Kuwait and Qatar - will also contribute forces.
The U.S. State Department Tuesday warned its citizens against travel to the Gulf country and advised Americans in Bahrain to consider leaving. It said U.S. citizens should avoid all demonstrations because they could escalate into violence.
In Washington, a White House spokesman called on countries of the Gulf region to show restraint but said the United States does not consider the arrival of foreign forces in Bahrain an invasion. He did not call for the withdrawal of the Saudi and UAE forces.
Oil-rich Bahrain is home to the U.S. Navy's Fifth Fleet, which provides support to U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates was in Bahrain on Saturday and urged the government to institute reforms. He also expressed concern that the on-going protests could provide an opening for Shi'ite Iran's government to escalate sectarian tensions in the region.
Bahrain's ruling al-Khalifa family has offered to hold a dialogue with opposition groups on democratic reforms, but protesters want the government to meet their demands first. Some opposition groups want the creation of a constitutional monarchy in which the parliament has more power, while others seek the ouster of the ruling family
Iran and the Saudi Countermove in Bahrain
By George Friedman
Saudi Arabia is leading a coalition force into Bahrain to help the government calm the unrest there. This move puts Iran in a difficult position, as Tehran had hoped to use the uprising in Bahrain to promote instability in the Persian Gulf region. Iran could refrain from acting and lose an opportunity to destabilize the region, or it could choose from several other options that do not seem particularly effective.
The Bahrain uprising consists of two parts, as all revolutions do. The first is genuine grievances by the majority Shiite population — the local issues and divisions. The second is the interests of foreign powers in Bahrain. It is not one or the other. It is both.
The Iranians clearly benefit from an uprising in Bahrain. It places the U.S. 5th Fleet’s basing in jeopardy, puts the United States in a difficult position and threatens the stability of other Persian Gulf Arab states. For the Iranians, the uprisings in North Africa and their spread to the Arabian Peninsula represent a golden opportunity for pursuing their long-standing interest (going back to the Shah and beyond) of dominating the Gulf.
The Iranians are accustomed to being able to use their covert capabilities to shape the political realities in countries. They did this effectively in Iraq and are doing it in Afghanistan. They regarded this as low risk and high reward. The Saudis, recognizing that this posed a fundamental risk to their regime and consulting with the Americans, have led a coalition force into Bahrain to halt the uprising and save the regime. Pressed by covert forces, they were forced into an overt action they were clearly reluctant to take.
We are now off the map, so to speak. The question is how the Iranians respond, and there is every reason to think that they do not know. They probably did not expect a direct military move by the Saudis, given that the Saudis prefer to act more quietly themselves. The Iranians wanted to destabilize without triggering a strong response, but they were sufficiently successful in using local issues that the Saudis felt they had no choice in the matter. It is Iran’s move.
If Iran simply does nothing, then the wave that has been moving in its favor might be stopped and reversed. They could lose a historic opportunity. At the same time, the door remains open in Iraq, and that is the main prize here. They might simply accept the reversal and pursue their main line. But even there things are murky. There are rumors in Washington that U.S. President Barack Obama has decided to slow down, halt or even reverse the withdrawal from Iraq. Rumors are merely rumors, but these make sense. Completing the withdrawal now would tilt the balance in Iraq to Iran, a strategic disaster.
Therefore, the Iranians are facing a counter-offensive that threatens the project they have been pursuing for years just when it appeared to be coming to fruition. Of course, it is just before a project succeeds that opposition mobilizes, so they should not be surprised that resistance has grown so strong. But surprised or not, they now have a strategic decision to make and not very long to make it.
They can up the ante by increasing resistance in Bahrain and forcing fighting on the ground. It is not clear that the Bahraini opposition is prepared to take that risk on behalf of Iran, but it is a potential option. They have the option of trying to increase unrest elsewhere in order to spread the Saudi and Gulf Cooperation Council forces, weakening their impact. It is not clear how much leverage the Iranians have in other countries. The Iranians could try to create problems in Saudi Arabia, but given the Saudis’ actions in Bahrain, this becomes more difficult.
Finally, they can attempt an overt intervention, either in Bahrain or elsewhere, such as Iraq or Afghanistan. A naval movement against Bahrain is not impossible, but if the U.S. Navy intervenes, which it likely would, it would be a disaster for the Iranians. Operations in Iraq or Afghanistan might be more fruitful. It is possible that Shiite insurgents will operate in Iraq, but that would guarantee a halt of the U.S. withdrawal without clearly increasing the Iranians’ advantage there. They want U.S. forces to leave, not give them a reason to stay.
There is then the indirect option, which is to trigger a war with Israel. The killings in the West Bank and Israeli concerns about Hezbollah might be some of Iran’s doing, with the emphasis on “might.” But it is not clear how a Hezbollah confrontation with Israel would help Iran’s position relative to Saudi Arabia in the Persian Gulf. It diverts attention, but the Saudis know the stakes and they will not be easily diverted.
The logic, therefore, is that Iran retreats and waits. But the Saudi move shifts the flow of events, and time is not on Iran’s side.
There is also the domestic Iranian political situation to consider. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has been strong in part because of his successful handling of foreign policy. The massive failure of a destabilization plan would give his political opponents the ammunition needed to weaken him domestically. We do not mean a democratic revolution in Iran, but his enemies among the clergy who see him as a threat to their position, and hard-liners in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps who want an even more aggressive stand.
Ahmadinejad finds himself in a difficult position. The Saudis have moved decisively. If he does nothing, his position can unravel and with it his domestic political strength. Yet none of the counters he might use seem effective or workable. In the end, his best option is to create a crisis in Iraq, forcing the United States to consider how deeply it wants to be drawn back into Iraq. He might find weakness there that he can translate into some sort of political deal.
At the moment we suspect the Iranians do not know how they will respond. The first issue will have to be determining whether they can create violent resistance to the Saudis in Bahrain, to both tie them down and increase the cost of occupation. It is simply unclear whether the Bahrainis are prepared to pay the price. The opposition does seem to want fundamental change in Bahrain, but it is not clear that they have reached the point where they are prepared to resist and die en masse.
That is undoubtedly what the Iranians are exploring now. If they find that this is not an option, then none of their other options are particularly good. All of them involve risk and difficulty. It also requires that Iran commit itself to confrontations that it has tried to avoid. It prefers covert action that is deniable to overt action that is not.
As we move into the evening, we expect the Iranians are in intense discussions of their next move. Domestic politics are affecting regional strategy, as would be the case in any country. But the clear roadmap the Iranians were working from has now collapsed. The Saudis have called their hand, and they are trying to find out if they have a real or a busted flush. They will have to act quickly before the Saudi action simply becomes a solid reality. But it is not clear what they can do quickly. For the moment, the Saudis have the upper hand. But the Iranians are clever and tenacious. There are no predictions possible. We doubt even the Iranians know what they will do.
SYRIA SUPPLYING KHADAFY WITH ARMS
Bangladesh Islamists Threaten Jihad
Saudi Troops in Bahrain; Martial Law Likely
Click here and here for the news reports.
STRATFOR reports:
Saudi military intervention in Bahrain is not unprecedented. Saudi Arabia sent troops to Bahrain in 1994 when Riyadh determined that Shiite unrest threatened the al-Khalifa regime.Regional implications of the unrest in Bahrain became more obvious when U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited Manama on March 12 and urged the Bahraini regime to implement bold reforms. Gates said Iranian interference would become a greater possibility if Bahrain fails to do so. While Bahrain and Saudi Arabia seem to be coordinating to avoid that possibility, it is not without risks. Leader of hardliner [Shiite] al-Haq movement, Hassan Mushaima, who is believed to be increasing the Shiite unrest in Bahrain by Iranian support, said on Feb. 28 that Saudi intervention in Bahrain would give Iran the same right to intervene as well. A scenario of regional Sunni Arab forces cracking down on Shia would apply pressure on Iran to respond more overtly, but its military ability is limited and it is a very risky option given the U.S. 5th fleet is stationed in Bahrain. As of this writing, there is no sign that Iranian military is taking steps toward that end, however, the situation on the ground could escalate if Shia in Bahrain ramp up demonstrations.
China to Help Iran Build World's Tallest Dam
DEADLY CLASHES IN YEMEN
Police in Yemen have fired bullets and tear gas against anti-government demonstrators near Sana'a University. Medical sources say dozens of people are wounded.
Witnesses say government supporters with knives and clubs also attacked the protesters on Sunday.
Demonstrators have been camped out near the university for days, pressing demands for the resignation of Yemen's President Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Anti-government protests were also reported Sunday in the southern provinces of Taiz and Aden, where a police station was set on fire.
Seven people were reported killed during Saturday's violence in Yemen as the government toughened a crackdown on protesters.
Posts
