Ed West
Ed West is a journalist and social commentator who specialises in politics, religion and low culture. He is @edwestonline on Twitter.
A great night for UKIP.
I reckon it will be the largest British party in Brussels come 2014
UKIP is doing well - but needs to scrap its colour scheme
Less than a week after the Observer revealed that 48 per cent of people might consider voting for a far-Right party as long as it wasn’t violent, racist, anti-democratic or in any sense whatsoever far-Right, UKIP has finished second in the Barnsley Central by-election with 12 per cent of the vote.
While the major focus this morning will be on the Liberal Democrats, who are surely doomed now and may as well just do a Masada-style mass suicide, what does this mean for Britain’s only economically literate anti-EU party?
Curiously enough, while UKIP traditionally wins most of its support from the Tories, one poll suggests that the Liberal Democrats had a higher proportion of defectors to UKIP than the Tories did. And in the 2009 election UKIP won more support from people in traditional Labour-voting families than from Tories.
UKIP’s potential popularity can be explained by the fact that on two of policies people care most about – immigration and crime – it easily has the most popular stance of any mainstream party.
Even among Liberal Democrat voters, more people agree than disagree that “all further immigration to the UK should be halted”, which puts them further to the Right than me (only Green Party supporters want more immigration – presumably as long as no one comes by plane). Whatever anyone claims, there is no “progressive majority” in Britain whatsoever.
UKIP could do more to win support – although hugely important, Europe comes way down the list of everyday concerns, and it must change its colour scheme. It would be interesting to see how it will do if AV goes through. But whatever the result of that referendum, I would put money on UKIP becoming the biggest British party in Brussels after the 2014 European Parliament elections.
'UKIP potential'
BBC political correspondent Ross Hawkins said the result would be a real concern for the Lib Dems ahead of May's English council elections although it remained to be seen whether the slump in their support was a one-off or a sign of a wider trend.
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Leader of the Labour Party, Ed Miliband: 'They have sent a very clear message to this government.'
UKIP leader Nigel Farage heralded the party's performance, saying they were the "real winners" in Barnsley Central.
"We've shown our potential in European elections by getting big scores in the past and now we're doing it in first past the post Westminster elections," he said. "We are delighted though I have to say but not completely surprised.
"Because just over the last month, whether it's votes for prisoners, car insurance for young women, annuities for old men, increasingly our Parliament is seen to be completely impotent. So the UKIP message that we should take back control of our own lives is very relevant to voters."
For the Conservatives, Chancellor George Osborne said Labour's victory was not a turn-up given their historic dominance of the area and the Barnsley seat was "never within our sights".
"The Conservatives started out in third place and ended up in third place," he said.
Former MP Eric Illsley held Barnsley Central with a majority of just over 11,000 in last year's general election but he resigned his seat after pleading guilty to falsely claiming £14,000 in parliamentary expenses. He was later jailed for a year.
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