Thursday, 14 April 2011
Sean Duffy, Allen West, and Jim Gerlach hold seats being targeted by Dems.
As part of the effort to win back the House majority, Democrats are eyeing dozens of districts that have tell-tale political signs of Republican incumbents who might be ripe for takedown.
While more than a few of them constitute an exercise in wishful thinking, among the targets is a special subset of seats that, at the moment at least, seems especially promising for 2012 - the so-called Kerry-Obama districts.
The Republican-controlled seats have the strongest Democratic lineage - districts with a proven track record of voting Democratic in presidential election years. Voters in those districts liked Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in a year when the rest of the nation reelected President George W. Bush and fell even harder for Barack Obama in 2008.
Without winning a good portion of those 14 seats - essentially the lowest-hanging fruit - there's little chance of a change in House control.
"The Kerry-Obama districts should be at the top of any Democratic target list because they are historically Democratic seats," said Mark Putnam, one of Obama's top media consultants during the 2008 campaign who has worked closely with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Those seats should turn Democratic."
One reason the Kerry-Obama seats are such attractive targets in 2012: Most of the occupants are freshmen, who are typically the most vulnerable members of Congress. Eleven of the 14 districts are represented by first-termers, including Reps. Allen West in south Florida and Sean Duffy in Wisconsin, two of the highest-profile members of the class of 2010.
The bulk of the Kerry-Obama seats are concentrated in the Northeast and Midwest. Pennsylvania is home to five - veteran Reps. Charlie Dent and Jim Gerlach and newly elected Reps. Mike Fitzpatrick, Patrick Meehan and Lou Barletta. Two are from Illinois - Reps. Bobby Schilling and Robert Dold. Minnesota (Rep. Chip Cravaack), New Hampshire (Rep. Charlie Bass), New York (Rep. Ann Marie Buerkle) and Ohio (Rep. Steve Stivers) are each home to one seat.
The only West Coast member of the club is veteran Rep. Dave Reichert, who represents a suburban Seattle district.
Democrats expect the higher turnout of a presidential election year and Obama's voter turnout machine will make their candidates exceptionally competitive in those seats next year.
"There are a bunch of Republicans in districts that are pretty reliably Democratic," said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster who is a veteran of House races. "Voters are creatures of habit. Voters in these districts habitually vote Democratic."
While Democratic officials concede that the yet-to-be completed redistricting process could hinder their efforts - Republican line-drawers will undoubtedly attempt to shore up their GOP colleagues in the Democratic-leaning seats - the 2012 campaign blueprint nevertheless focuses heavily on winning the contests. DCCC Chairman Steve Israel recently traveled to Florida to court potential West challengers and the committee has already unleashed ad, phone and email campaigns targeting some of the Kerry-Obama Republicans.
It's no coincidence that the 14 Republicans have been among the first to draw serious Democratic opponents at this early stage in the election cycle. West Palm Beach Mayor Lois Frankel announced last month that she would run against West, a national favorite among tea party activists. In New Hampshire, Democrat Ann McLane Kuster, a progressive attorney who lost to Bass by less than 4,000 votes in 2010, said this week that she will seek a rematch. In New York, former Rep. Dan Maffei recently emailed supporters declaring that he is "strongly considering" running against Buerkle, who knocked him off last year.
Obama's top-of-the-ticket presence is expected to be a boon to the Democrats.
"In a presidential year, you have greater turnout from traditional Democratic voters," said Jef Pollock, a New York-based pollster who advises Israel. "It's just a simple presidential year dynamic."
"For the guys in districts that Obama and Kerry won, they have to feel like they're in real trouble," he added.
Some of the targeted Republicans don't have much room for error. Buerkle defeated Maffei by less than 700 votes in an upstate New York race that was decided after a weeks-long recount of ballots. Cravaack defeated longtime Democratic incumbent Jim Oberstar in Minnesota's Iron Range-based 8th district by about 4,200 votes. Dold held off Democrat Dan Seals by a little more than 5,000 votes in his Chicago-area district.
Democratic pollster Keith Frederick likened their positions to that of former Democratic Reps. Tom Perriello and Glenn Nye, who narrowly won Republican-oriented Virginia districts with Obama's help in 2008 only to lose two years later when their seats fell back into habit.
"If you're a Democratic consultant, you're going to say, 'Those guys barely won, and now they will lose,'" said Frederick.
A handful of the rookie Republicans who were unexpectedly swept into Democratic seats in 2010 are of special concern to their GOP colleagues since they appear to be lagging behind in the assembly of well-funded, battle-ready political organizations.
While first quarter Federal Election Committee fundraising reports have not yet been released, House GOP officials said they are bracing for the trio of freshmen who have never before held elected office - Cravaack, Buerkle and Schilling - to report relatively weak cash-on-hand figures. All three had less than $100,000 remaining in their campaign accounts at the end of last year - sums that will make it easier for Democrats to recruit challengers against them.
Republicans acknowledge that the 14 Kerry-Obama seatholders are the party's most vulnerable. But party officials are quick to note that Democrats need to win a lot more than 14 seats to win back the House - they need a 25-seat gain. Ed Goeas, a veteran Republican pollster who works closely with the National Republican Congressional Committee, noted that the vast majority of the party's 87 freshmen occupy GOP-oriented districts - a sharp departure from the 1996 election, when Republicans were forced to defend a big class of rookies sitting in moderate-minded seats.
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"My sense is our vulnerable list is fairly shallow," said Goeas.
Republicans also insist the Obama coattail effect is a bit overblown, especially when it comes to the veterans on the list. Gerlach, Dent and Reichert have all weathered races in tough districts with Democratic presidential nominees winning at the top of the ticket. And in December, Republican pollster Glen Bolger released a memo pointing out that even in 1984 and 1996, incumbent presidents who won blowout reelection victories failed to produce sizeable congressional gains for their respective parties.
"Even if the president does get reelected, it's unlikely he will carry a lot of new Democratic House members with him," Bolger said in an interview. "Voters can say, 'We're going to give you four more years, but we're not going to let you drive alone. There's going to be a backseat driver."
Source: www.politico.com/news/stories/0411/52448.html By: Alex Isenstadt April 3, 2011 07:26 PM EDT
Why is that? Because...
By Dr. Michael Savage
Pages 18 through 24 and the rest of the book!
1. Illegal Aliens Are Here Illegally.
2. Pro-Domestic Employment Is Indispensable.
3. Stronger Military Is Essential.
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5. Gun Ownership Is Sacred.
6. Government Must Be Downsized.
7. National Budget Must Be Balanced.
8. Deficit Spending Will End.
9. Bail-Out And Stimulus Plans Are Illegal.
10. Reduce Personal Income Taxes A Must.
11. Reduce Business Income Taxes Is Mandatory.
12. Political Offices Available To Average Citizens.
13. Intrusive Government Stopped.
14. English As Core Language Is Required.
15. Traditional Family Values Are Encouraged.
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