A model of chaos - by Richard... Tuesday, May 24, 2011

A model of chaos - by Richard... Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Thousands of air passengers have been hit by flight disruptions today as it emerges that aviation authorities and governments are still relying on inadequate Met Office models rather than real data.

Airline managers are complaining that last year, officials did not do enough to check the actual conditions in the air, instead relying too heavily on computer models showing where the ash was supposed to be. Yet, despite the experience, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) is saying that it is "astonishing and unacceptable" that a British aircraft that is supposed to check actual conditions has been unable to fly.

The disruption arises in part from "volatile winds" which are said to be carrying clouds of volcanic ash down from Iceland over the northern British Isles. But those same winds which caused the rough weather yesterday must also have dispersed the ash.

Without real data, however, forecasters are unable to provide accurate information on ash density and particle size, relying instead on weather patterns and computer modelling to give a rough approximation of conditions. And, with no clear guidance as to closure rules, the only significant difference between this year and last is that the weather conditions are more changeable, allowing more favourable estimates of ash dispersion to be made.

Given that last year's chaos forced cancellation of 100,000 flights, stranded millions of passengers, cost the industry $1.8 billion, and the global economy $5 billion, it is utterly bizarre that the authorities and the industry are not better prepared this time round.

Had the weather patterns of last year been repeated, there would be little to choose between this year and last – other than this year, with the benefit of recent experience of dealing with volcanic ash clouds, the authorities have even less excuse for messing up than they did last time.

Even now, however, local media such as The Guardian and The Daily Mail seem unable to appreciate that the system has once again failed. They are even allowing transport secretary Philip Hammond to get away with his cop-out, claiming that the situation is better than last year because he will not be imposing a blanket ban "like the last government".

It is up to airlines to decide whether it is safe to fly in discussions with the CAA, he says, not then pointing out that, without real data for airborne sampling, the airlines have no option but to take their safety case from the uncorroborated Met Office models.

It should be no part of the media's task to give the government, or the aviation authorities, a free pass, but the eagerness with which journalists seem to buy into an inadequate control model makes you wonder why we need an independent media. We might just as well cut out the middle man and feed off government press releases.

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Infamy - by Richard...

They really have got it infamy ... for many good reasons – and some bad – I have not done much travelling over the last year. But with our daughter Emma graduating in Dundee in art, we could not miss her inaugural exhibition. So, with the promise of a heatwave, we go up there – and what do we get? Freezing cold and then monster gales all the way back, with rain like I've rarely seen.

At least 25,000 properties in Scotland were without power after "a vicious and unexpected battering from gales saw two people in the UK killed by falling trees amid widespread transport disruption", the Guardian tells us. Trees [of the fallen variety], they say, stopped train services on the West Coast main line between England and Scotland near Gretna Green ... which must have been the time we were passing through.

Note the bit about "unexpected". And they want to tell us what the climate is going to be like in 50 years?

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And the fallen - by Richard...

This is what claims to be a newspaper. This is seriously what the once mighty Telegraph believes is the fare of interest and importance to its readers.

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Decline and fall - by Richard...

The Guardian is exulting in the defection of UKIP MEP David Campbell-Bannerman to the Tories. A former UKIP deputy leader, he came third in the contest that returned Nigel Farage to the party leadership last year.

The Tory Boy Blog is naturally happy about this particular bit of treachery but, predictably,Witterings from Witney is not exactly over the moon. However, doubtless out of a sense of loyalty, he forebears to inform us that Bannerman is another of those seedy Farage protégés.

As an MEP, the man was the beneficiary of the rigged selection process in UKIP which the current leader manages so well. But at any distance, Bannerman comes over as a wrong-un, and the betrayal has long been expected.

He would not be the first Tory plant in the party, and despite standing against Farage, owes his position in the party to the current leader. The defection, therefore, speaks volumes for Farage's judgement, and is yet another example of why the party fails to prosper.

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Ian Tomlinson: final decision - by Richard...

The CPS has decided to prosecute PC Simon Harwood for the manslaughter of Ian Tomlinson. A summons charging PC Harwood has been obtained from the City of Westminster Magistrates' Court and he will appear before that court on 20 June.

This is the policeman defended by his own senior officers, who found nothing untoward in his conduct. A jury will now have the opportunity of making up its own mind.

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One rule for them? - by Richard...

So, when this happens, it is justice – despite the appalling consequences to the individual. But Martin Kettle thinks targeting his mate Chris Huhne is disproportionate? Would he rate the treatment of Marcus Einfeld as "disproportionate" as well?

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The story repeats - by Richard...

One of the many scoops broken by this blog was the story last year when we had the last Icelandic volcano eruption. Uniquely, we identified that the situation had been made inestimably worse by the lack of real time direct ash monitoring, owing to the shortage of aviation assets.

As we recorded last May, the one and only aircraft capable of carrying out the necessary monitoring, a BAE 146 operated by FAAM, was in the hanger with its instrumentation stripped out, about to undergo a paint job.

Now, a year later, the airlines are disputing the severity of the situation, and Ryanair is disagreeing with the CAA about the extent (or presence) of any ash in Scotland. Once again, there is an urgent need to carry out monitoring to find out exactly what is going on, and history is repeating itself. The FAAM aircraft is currently engaged on a full flying programme and is not available for volcanic ash sampling.

Of course, after the last episode, we saw the usual BS about "lessons learned", but since the lack of monitoring aircraft was never officially recognised, the most important lesson that needed to be learned was ignored.

One could get really savage about this, as the need was transparently obvious. To minimise disruption, we need an aircraft capable of being scrambled at a moment's notice, to bring back data on the precise situation in the affected areas.

But we even have Reuters telling us that EU officials say they have "learned the lessons from last year's volcanic ash crisis and have been discussing a UK-backed scheme that would place more control in the hands of airlines rather than forcing regulators to impose blanket bans".

The problem is, though, that this system depends first on assessing the amount and type of ash in the atmosphere - and only then allowing airlines to carry out their own assessments of the potential hazards. And, although there is other technology available, to make accurate assessments, a suitable and properly equipped aircraft is needed.

At least now the situation is not quite as bad as it was last year. By the end of the month, the FAAM BAE 146 has a fairly clear flight programme so that, if we have an extended eruption, the aircraft should be available for continuous monitoring.

Needless to say, though, this is not an issue entirely down to governments. It should be well within the capability of European airlines to get together and fund their own monitoring capability. As with governments, though, the industry appears stricken by short-termism and, after last year's crisis subsided, little has been done to address the shortfall in capability.

Nor is there any media adult enough to identify and write intelligently about the issues. As with last year, therefore, a lot of people are going to suffer unnecessary disruption, and they are not even going to know why.

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Out of order - by Richard...

How interesting it is that the Guardianemploys one of its associate editors,Martin Kettle, to act as an apologist forChris Huhne.

Even accepting, for the case of argument, that Huhne committed a speeding offence eight years ago and then persuaded his wife to take the points on his licence, writes the egregious Kettle, is it a serious enough matter to require Essex police to conduct an investigation now?

Then Kettle employs the cheap trick of framing the argument, asserting that, if you take an absolutely fundamentalist position that every infringement must be thoroughly investigated in every case, and every possible offence arising from it turned into a prosecution, then you will say yes.

This then allows him to appear eminently reasonable, contrasted with the "fundamentalist position?". In his "reasonable" view, Huhne should not be pursued. This isn't rape, or robbery or assault or serious fraud.

No, it isn't any of those things. It is perverting the course of justice – an offence deemed so serious that it attracts a first-time prison sentence. And the nature of the alleged perpetrator is also relevant. This was an MEP, then with ambitions to become an MP, and now a Cabinet Minister.

This is no ordinary Joe. He is a lawmaker, from whom a higher standard of behaviour is demanded. He is required to set an example. If our masters can freely flout the law, the theory goes, why should lesser mortals take them seriously?

So yes, this is a serious enough matter to require Essex police to conduct an investigation now. AndTim Worstall reminds us that both Jeffrey Archer and Jonathan Aitken served time for perverting the course of justice. Kettle is seriously out of order here.

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What are they for? - by Richard...

While Barack meets Dave today, the news for The Boy on the financial front could hardly be worse. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has recorded that last month's borrowing figures were the highest ever recorded for the month of April.

Even excluding financial interventions such as bank bail-outs, the figure hit £10 billion, compared with £7.3bn the previous year. "City expectations" were in the order of £6.5bn – which tells you something of the acumen of these clever and sophisticated people who are paid so much to look after our finances.

There is now significant doubt as to whether Dave and the baby Osborne can meet their modest target of increasing the national debt by only £122bn this financial year. And when they fail even in that venture, one really does have to ask what they are for.

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Forum - by Richard...

The forum is open for new applicants. As before, would new applicants please lodge with me an e-mail (using the "contact" link on the top menu line) immediately after registering, advising me the username chosen. I must have this so that I can pick you out from the hundreds of spam applications and activate your account.

Please do not register if you do not intend to take part in the forum discussion.

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A grown-up subject - by Richard...

If the media was at all a serious industry, the situation in Spain would be on the front pages. A "toxic brew" of credit rating downgrades, a heavy electoral defeat for Spain's governing party, and disagreements among European officials on how to deal with the crisis is causing mayhem in the markets.

What is really interesting - and worrying in equal measure - is the degree to which it is nowbecoming apparent that Spain is hiding debt. For some years now, it has been obvious that Spain's economy has been riding on sky hooks, despite all the clever and sophisticated people who have been telling us otherwise. But they rely on those two clever and sophisticated techniques: lying and self-delusion.

Thus, slowly, slowly, the train crash is gathering pace. Actually, it is more like one of those slow-motion landslides. You can see it coming, you know it's unstoppable. And you can also work out that the people below it do not stand a chance, no matter how fast they run. Yet, as each day passes and the day of reckoning comes closer, the babies prattle on.

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Forget the principles - by Richard...

Andreas Whittam Smith in The Independent tells us that this tussle has nothing to do with high principles. From the beginning it has been about power and money. In the early days of dealings between a celebrity and the media, he says, the two sides work together.

People who play to paying audiences will give almost anything for media attention because their stock-in-trade is fame. If they have to engage in stunts, then that is what they do. The relationship is often one of connivance.

In terms of selling newspapers, magazines, radio and television programmes, the media greatly benefit from their intrusion – sometimes more apparent than real – into the lives of famous people.

This is the period when nobody can believe that things could get nasty. Both sides are doing so well out of it. Whittam Smith thus goes on to demonstrate that this is a cat fight between two equally tawdry groups, each pursuing their own interests. Even the pretence that the media is a serious industry has been abandoned.

The only issue of real interest, therefore, is the interplay between the judges and parliament. The judges claim the impasse in the law has been created by the Human Rights Act, which is of course a law that The Boy pledged to repeal.

Since he has no intention of doing this, we see him spraying EVM about a "wider debate" - anything to obscure his own part in the debacle. MPs like John Hemming then operate in the cracks and become the darling of the media entertainment business, while serious business is suspended pro temp. Even the farce has become a farce.

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The cupboard is bare - by Richard...

You might have thought that the end of the very last British mission in Iraq might have triggered more discussion, especially with David Miliband complaining of the failure "to develop a proper strategy for peace".

However, no more can the media intelligently discuss Iraq than it can the current operations in Libya, where we now hear that British and French forces are planning to deploy attack helicoptersin an attempt to break the military stalemate.

Bizarrely, with the British offering three Apache helicopters operating from HMS Ocean (type pictured) – and a fourth to join shortly - The Guardian calls this a "significant escalation of the conflict". Thus, according to this newspaper, after 300 GR4 Tornado and 140 Eurofighter sorties flown against Gaddafi's forces, with the release of approximately 240 munitions, the use of the relatively lightly-armed and extremely vulnerable Apaches represents a "significant escalation".

Nevertheless, it is acknowledged that the operation of these aircraft will be "risky", but "reflect deepening frustration among British and French defence chiefs about their continuing inability to protect civilians". It is said that they can manoeuvre and attack small targets in relatively built-up areas. They can thus deal with Gaddafi forces who have shed their uniforms, and are using civilian vehicles and hiding armour near civilian buildings, including hospitals and schools.

The paper goes on to say that the decision to deploy the helicopters is a clear recognition that high-level bombing from 15,000 feet cannot protect civilians who continue to be attacked by rocket and mortar shells. It brings the NATO "offensive" much closer to the ground at a time when Britain and other coalition countries are insisting they have no intention of sending in troops.

The decision, however, is also a recognition that, when it comes to military assets available to the coalition partners, the cupboard is bare. While the US could deploy – if it so wished (and briefly did in March) – the highly accurate AC-130s and A-10s, there is nothing similar in the coalition armoury.

And, if the British are having problems, the French are in even bigger trouble, fielding untested Tigre attack helicopters and the antique Gazelle, so noisy, slow and fragile that it was withdrawn from British combat service in the Falklands after two were shot down by small arms fire (apart from HMS Cardiff shooting down XX377 in 1982 - which they tried to cover up).

Yet, even as the coalition struggles to maintain a credible force, Obama meets Cameron later today. Both, we are told, will vow to push for democracy throughout the Arab world, heedless of the irony that democracy has been all but abolished in the UK. But they will also pledge to threaten military action as a last resort against regimes that kill their people.

What no one seems to want to mention, though, is that current events illustrate that our armed forces are ill-equipped and structured for this intervention role. As time goes on, we will look more and more foolish, while the expenses mount, with very little achieved.

Despite this, neither the media nor the politicians seem able to pull the plug. Unable to understand the root causes of their own failures, they leave not only the physical but also the intellectual cupboard bare.

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Not their business - by Richard... Monday, May 23, 2011

It would be a change if we had politicians who could carry out the jobs they were paid to do with a modicum of competence. And it might help if they focused on those jobs, instead of straying into areas which are not their business.

It is Foxtrot Oscar time once again.