Tuesday, 3 May 2011
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NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 3RD MAY 2011
The Arab Spring leads again this month with updated reports on Iraq, Libya, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, withTurkey and Iran, the differently motivated regional bystanders.
Our reports find a single theme, despite the very different situations of these nations:
monarchy, republic, dictatorship
The leitmotif is ‘change’
Clearly the disturbed middle-east leads world concerns at this time and although without exception, the protests against established undemocratic governments have not been religiously motivated, nevertheless in Syria, the Moslem Brotherhood have ‘jumped on the bandwagon.’ In Egypt a more dangerous and vicious minority the Salafists, have taken advantage of the political interregnum with terrorist acts against non-extremist Moslems such as the Sufi, and against Egypt’s Coptic Christians, who have been there since long before the Prophet.
Are the US and Pakistan Drifting apart?
With the death of Osama bin Laden we look at the relations between the US and Pakistan – are they drifting apart? We also ask some of the questions arising from this dramatic event which apart from its historic significance – amongst other things it might well create an atmosphere enabling ISAF to go home earlier, rather than later.
But there remain so many unanswered questions arising from the statements of the raid, and bin Laden’s death, that we forecast an avalanche of conspiracy theories – indeed we start that ball rolling in our OVERVIEW.
An End in Sight?
With the death of Osama bin Laden, an end may be in sight for the international involvement in Afghanistan. The original object of the US and ISAF forces was to bring about the destruction of Osama bin Laden and Al Qaeda. There is now a plausible story to conclude the international military presence in Afghanistan - from here on, its up to the negotiators!
India: the emphasis is on fighting corruption
There is a national mood of disgust about corruption and a recognition that it has to be fought. Some of the politicians are amongst the worst offenders, so this largely a citizen’s movement – but with very distinguished citizens in the lead.
South Africa: Insults across a frontier
The famously corrupt Robert Mugabe of Zim is being very undiplomatic about his South African neighbour President Zuma, via his state controlled captive press, on which we report - so it’s barely deniable. The African Union sent some leaders to Libya to meet ‘the Colonel’ and the rebels, with a proposal to cease fire and talk about their differences. Zuma, although an architect of this amazing proposal, was unable to go to Tripoli, due to a clashing trip to China. We also tell the latest episode of the story of the President’s bagman, Schabir Shaik coming out of jail - and going back in again.
Russia and inwards investment
We comment on the fact that twenty years after the end of communism, Russia’s courts still cannot be trusted. All the big inwards investments deals have an arbitration clause where disputes are to be heard in Stockholm, or London, or Zurich –anywhere in fact where there is the rule of law - and that excludes the territory of the former Soviet Union.
Belarus: Europe’s Last (long) Dictatorship
By following the diktat of Lukashenka, its long-in-office tyrant, this former Soviet colony is now in deep financial trouble. The EU provisionally offered to help out on condition that the recent elections were run fairly, and that his political opponents did not become political prisoners. Belarus failed on both counts and now there is no one to turn to except Moscow. The problem here is that Moscow has always found it hard to take Belarus seriously as a nation state, as distinct from Lukashenka’s oversized farm.
Ukraine’s feminist movement knows how to get media attention!
Bulgaria & Romania : both in the EU ‘doghouse’
These two late entrants to the EU have both been refused visa-free travel in the EU’s Shengen zone. They have failed to convince other members that they are not allowing economic refugees and stateless people to cross into their nations (and therefore on into the wider EU). Until they can satisfy France and Germany in particular (UK is not a member of the Shengen treaty), that their own borders are under control and that their border police are not taking bribes, then that will remain the position. It seems that Romania is making efforts at least to shut down on illegal immigration, but Bulgaria has so far failed to impress, except at the depths of its criminality.
Taiwan: a time of troubles
Nature’s and man-made destruction in Japan have affected Taiwan’s economy as there is a degree of interdependence in certain of their industries. Even a small economic downturn will affect the KMT’s election prospects for the worse –so they are rightly worried. We note the creeping authoritarianism in government pronouncements – a little too much like those of ‘big brother,’ over on the mainland, for a new democracy.
North Korea: The Elders non-event
Former president Jimmy Carter, tireless traveller for peace and good causes, with a group of distinguished fellow members of ‘the Elders,’ a group set up by Nelson Mandela, went with colleagues on a mission to North Korea and found that no-one was at home. We tell the story in this issue’s NORTH KOREA.
The Philippines
The new government are making a brave effort to resolve Philippines many problems, much of which are due to over-population – and that is due to the power of the church over such (for the rest of us) minor matters as contraception.
Kazakhstan’s No-surprise election
Seventy plus year old President Nazarbayev held a surprise election, so surprising in fact that the opposition didn’t have the chance to put up a candidate. Nazarbayev got 95% of the vote. The first election he held many years ago, two of the other ‘enlisted’ candidates publicly voted for him, since they didn’t want to be considered as his enemies. Having displayed his sense of democracy so convincingly, he presumably feels proof against the kind of civil disturbance in other quasi-Moslem oil-rich countries. Bring on your fair votes. After all, 95% is going to be hard to beat.
Uzbekistan – a new distinction
This central Asian, best known for boiling prisoners alive, has been the subject of a new report which finds it to be the world’s most egregious violator of human rights.
Azerbaijan: Jailed protestors
The computerate young know full well what’s going on in North Africa, and so do the secret police in this Caspian Sea former soviet state. An opposition spokesman says several hundred people have been arrested in various parts of Baku. The profile of this originally Moslem oil state is quite comparable to Libya with one ruling family, now in its second generation, owning just about everything.
Georgia: Sick and Tired of their president
Yes, there are mass protests against President Saakashvili, but this is not because he is a tyrant or a cruel monster. However, many want him gone because he appears to be a fool, and that is no sort of distinction for the leader of a small nation state in the Caucasus.
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