Wednesday, 18 May 2011
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NEWNATIONS BULLETIN 18 MAY 2011
Al Qaida is finished: Lessons of the Arab Spring
This issue looks in some depth at the political failure of the Al Qaida Islamic terror movement, even as their founder/leader Osama bin Laden is eliminated by US troops.
It is a phenomenon that, as witnessed in Egypt and Tunisia in particular, but also in Yemen, Libya, Bahrain & Syria, the widespread uprisings have not been led or motivated by religious fundamentalists, although that had been widely expected by political observers. Alessandro Bruno, who is a MENA specialist, analyses this failure.
Above all, Al Qaida from the outset called for the overthrow of the decadent, tyrannical rulers of Arab states, and for unity under a restored Caliphate.
The caliphate isn’t going to happen and indeed political Islam has not figured prominently in the struggle, although they are already vying for influence in the new order in each nation, as it becomes established. But they will have to compete democratically with the secular groups who made the revolutions. The biggest problem shared by all of these nations is massive youth unemployment. Islam does not have the political currency to address such issues.
But even though al Qaida has been sidelined, it hasn’t gone away. We look particularly at its offshoots: AQIM and AQAP, respectively in the Islamic Maghreb and in the Arabian Peninsula.
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