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Breaking from Moneynews.com ECRI’s Achuthan: Prolonged US Slowdown Under Way The U.S. economy will avoid double-dipping into a recession for now but is entering a prolonged period of sluggish economic performance that will make jobs tough to find, says Lakshman Achuthan, co-founder of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which focuses on predicting recessions and recoveries. "We’re talking about a cyclical turn that’s pronounced pervasive and persistent, not a one- or two-month affair," says Achuthan, according to The Wall Street Journal. Downturns will last for several quarters, although they might not always be classified as official recessions since they may not come back to back. For many, it's going to feel like the country is stuck in the doldrums anyway. "The broad economy is going to slow alongside the industrial sector starting in the middle of this year, so in that sense it may feel like last year," Achuthan says. "You’re not going to see the quarter of a million jobs [created] on average anytime soon," he adds, referring to the employment growth number many analysts peg as the tipping point for sufficient growth in employment. A CNNMoney survey of 18 economic experts finds there is a 15 percent chance of a new recession, small but double the chance participants believed to be true at the start of the year. "The fragile U.S. recovery means the economy is much more vulnerable to geopolitical shocks and a rise in fuel prices," says Bernard Baumohl of the Economic Outlook Group, a Princeton, N.J., research firm. "Since the instability in Middle East is far from over, there are real risks for the U.S. and international economy." © Moneynews. All rights reserved.