Wednesday, 14 September 2011

The following is research published today from MEMRI’s Inquiry & Analysis series.

Inquiry & Analysis No. 737—Jordan

Jordan-Israel Relations Following the Takeover of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo

By: H. Varulkar*

The September 9, 2011 storming of the Israeli Embassy in Cairo inspired the Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan to demand the closure of the Israeli Embassy in the capital Amman. A senior Muslim Brotherhood official even warned the Arab rulers against countering the will of the Arab peoples, who oppose ties with Israel.

The Jordanian authorities, which have issued no official statement regarding the Cairo incident, fear the possible occurrence of a similar event in their country, and before the night of September 9 was out, they had already beefed up security measures around the Israeli Embassy in Amman. Indeed, in the past couple of days, Jordanian activists have increased tensions in Jordan by launching preparations for a million-person demonstration demanding the embassy's closure, set to take place in the capital on Thursday, September 15.

At the same time, the Cairo embassy takeover sparked many reactions in the Jordanian press, and the issue of the Arab countries' relations with Israel, especially following the Arab Spring, came up for discussion. The overwhelming majority of these reactions expressed support for the takeover, justified the actions of the Egyptian mob, and placed the responsibility for the incident squarely on Israel. Some even encouraged Egypt to continue ratcheting up the tension with Israel and to rescind the Camp David Accords. Many articles referred to the Arab Spring's impact on the relationship with Israel, stating that in this new reality, it is the Arab peoples, not the Arab rulers, who will set the tone of that relationship, and they will no longer accept peace agreements that are not based on equality and mutual respect.

The Jordanian independent daily Al-Arab Al-Yawm assessed that the events will also impact Jordan's relations with Israel, saying that the Jordan-Israel peace agreement was now at risk. However, it should be noted that, except for this article, the writers were clearly avoiding specifically referring to the Jordan-Israel peace agreement, and also avoided mentioning the Cairo incident's ramifications for relations between the two countries.

To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5643.htm.

Inquiry and Analysis No. 736—Iran

Lebanese Sources Close To Hizbullah: Washington Asks Tehran For Negotiations On Iraq, Afghanistan; Iran Demands Comprehensive Settlement Including Syria, Bahrain; Ahmadinejad To Qatari Emir: If Syria's Attacked, 'The First Missile Will Fall On You'

By: A. Savyon and Y. Mansharof*

Two Lebanese sources affiliated with Hizbullah – the website of Al-Manar TV and the Lebanese weekly Al-Intiqad – have reported on a September 3, 2011 meeting between Qatari Emir Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Citing French sources, they claimed that the Qatari emir had conveyed to the Iranian president a message from Washington, the main thrust of which was a request by the U.S. for Tehran's consent to the U.S.'s maintaining 15,000 troops in Iraq for another two years, and also a request to Tehran to stop the hostile operations against U.S. forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Al-Manar also reported that Ahmadinejad had explicitly threatened Qatar, and thus implicitly also the U.S., in a discussion of the crisis in Syria, telling him that if Syria was attacked, "the first missile [in retaliation] will fall on you."

To read the full report, visit http://www.memri.org/report/en/0/0/0/0/0/0/5642.htm.