Saturday 1 October 2011

Otmar Issing gave to the BBC on 15 April 2011.


It is best to watch the whole video here:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13099118

but if time is short, just skim over these excerpts:

Lesley Curwen (BBC): So you, as an ECB central banker had warned long ago, didn't you, the risks of allowing some countries like Greece into the eurozone and that there was too much optimism that those economic imbalances were there and that could be a huge risk in the future. So is it your belief that the politicians were too naive?

Otmar Issing: They were not naive. I think this is an excuse I would not accept. Naiveness sounds better, the behaviour was worse.

Lesley Curwen: So they understood the risks?

Otmar Issing: Yeah. These risks could not be denied. Divergence in unit labour cost, if from year to year continuing, I think nobody could ignore that; overheating in the housing sector. But it would have needed political courage to do something against. It was this lack of political courage, elections happening here and there are explanation but not an excuse.

. . .

Lesley Curwen: Opponents of the euro have always argued that you could have seen this kind of thing coming, that it is doomed to failure, because a one-size-fits-all policy simply won't work across all these countries. So how do you as the chief architect of the euro respond to that?

Otmar Issing: Oh, I myself was on the side of those who warned against the premature start of monetary union and so

Lesley Curwen: How many countries did you want to have for the start?

Otmar Issing: It's not the question of the numbers, it is a question of which countries were prepared enough to make this one-size-fits-all work. So when we started with the euro on January 1 1999 with 11 countries, before being appointed, I had to testify to the European Parliament. I said we have to do a lot to make it work.
So for me it was an experiment. It's still an experiment. I was aware of all the risks and so far it's a bit frustrating that all these warnings were not taken seriously enough.

Former European Central Bank chief economist Otmar Issing, one of the architects of the euro, said Greece’s exit from the 17-nation monetary union is inevitable.
“There is no other way,” Issing told Germany’s Stern in an interview, according to a transcript supplied by the magazine. With Greece’s debt forecast to reach 160 percent of gross domestic product next year, the country needs to renege on at least 50 percent of its obligations and “that can’t happen within the monetary union,” Issing is quoted as saying.