Tuesday, 1 November 2011

Financial News & EU

Why France — Not Greece or Italy — Will Decide the Fate of the Euro

France’s own economic problems will soon make it unable to help bail out weaker European countries. When that happens, the euro game will be up
http://moneyland.time.com/2011/10/31/why-france-is-the-weak-link-of-the-european-economic-union/
Solving Greece Didn't Solve Anything
As I pointed out at the time this was idiotic - resolving Greece was not sufficient as the underlying problem is not that Greece is in trouble, it is that there is too much leverage in both the European and American economies.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/303660-solving-greece-didn-t-solve-anything

Crunch time?

Possibly the most significant consequence of the EU bailouts last week will be that the “solutions” to the problems in Europe will result in a global credit crunch. To me this outcome is a foregone conclusion. It's already happening.
The agreements give the EU banks till June 2012 to recapitalize. There are only two possible outcomes. (A) Either the banks sell more common and preferred shares to the public, or (B) they improve their capital ratios by de-leveraging.
It’s simply not possible to sell more shares. The costs (in the form of dilution or 10+% Preferred dividends) make this option a dead end. So the banks will have to get smaller.
http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2011/10/crunch-time.html

ISDA Says 50% Greek Bond Haircut "Appears" Voluntary

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/isda-says-50-greek-bond-haircut-appears-voluntary


Three Out Of Four

Three Out Of Four: Spain Joins Ireland, Portugal With A Gun To Its Head, Demanding Concessions
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/three-out-four-spain-joins-ireland-portugal-gun-its-head-demanding-concessions

MF Global: Comments From A Bank Executive

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-mf-global-comments-bank-executive


Europe According To...

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/europe-according

CCredit-Default Swap Risk Bomb Is Wired to Explode: Mark Buchanan

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-30/credit-default-swap-risk-bomb-is-wired-to-explode-mark-buchanan.html

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Today's ConservativeHome newslinks

Clegg attacks 'unpatriotic' eurosceptic Tories as he says moves to repatriate powers will cost jobs - Daily Mail

  • Behind Clegg's "bluster" he is moving his position on the EU - Jason Groves in the Daily Mail
  • Voters just won't buy a federal Europe, Mr Clegg - Dominic Lawson in The Independent

Tories seen as divided after EU row and it's Cameron who is seen as out of touch with public

  • "A majority of voters regard the Conservatives as more divided than the last Labour Government amid the party’s public rows over Europe, according to a ComRes survey for The Independent. Some 56% of the public --including 38% of Tory supporters-- believe that the Tories are now more divided than the previous government, while 32% of people disagree."
  • "A majority (55 per cent) regard Mr Cameron as out of touch with public opinion on Europe, while 33 per cent of the public disagree. Only 27 per cent of people think the UK gets a good deal from being a member of the EU, while 60 per cent disagree." - Independent

If David Cameron does not toughen his EU policies he risks an exodus to UKIP - Express leader

HESELTINE MICHAELPanel chaired by Lord Heseltine picked winners of Coalition's £1bn Regional Growth Fund - Express

"The Government plans just £1 billion of these “public works”. In an economy of around £1.5 trillion, that is quite trivial – no Plan B; no resiling from the Coalition’s deficit-reduction programme. It will not drive us into debt. It cannot leave us with too many white elephants that no one uses." - Andrew Lilico for The Telegraph

"Increasingly, Mr Cameron’s advisers have started to argue that “small is beautiful” rather than talking about the Big Society." - Rachel Sylvester for The Times (£)

Influential left-wing Liberal Democrats propose economic Plan B - Letter to The Guardian

  • Public sector job losses may be closer to 600,000 than 400,000 - FT (£)
  • It could take Britain SIX YEARS to recover from recession, warns think tank as OECD slashes Eurozone growth forecast in half - Daily Mail |Metro

The Telegraph leader-writers call for more radical economic measures: "Exceptional times require radical measures, including some that the Lib Dems in the Coalition won’t like, such as the employment law reforms proposed in Adrian Beecroft’s report last week. The bureaucracy and costs associated with employment regulations, many of them imposed through EU directives, have crushed the life out of small businesses. Any government serious about growth would do something about them, and soon."

Dragons608

> On MajorityConservatism yesterday Tim Montgomerie set out a more radical economic growth agenda.

25,000 green jobs said to be at risk after Coalition plans halving of subsidies - Telegraph

"Solar company executives have condemned the “nightmare” announcement of government plans to halve subsidies for household solar panels, threatening legal action against a step they claim would destroy the industry." - FT (£)

Theresa May unveils £11 million plan to tackle gang violence

MAY Theresa (blk jacket)"Mrs May will today publish a joint report with Work and Pensions Secretary Iain Duncan Smith — ordered by PM David Cameron in the aftermath of four days of rioting that rocked Britain in August. As a key part of the strategy, the Cabinet duo will announce a 100-strong task force to enforce the Government's new blueprint. The unit, dubbed the Ending Gang Violence Team, will be dispatched across the UK to tailor individual plans for different areas to suit their specific problems." - Sun

Iain Duncan Smith: Society would “simply collapse” without the support of elderly people who care for their grandchildren and volunteer for charity -Telegraph

Local authorities will be able to decide whether to retain council tax discounts on second homes if communities department proposals take effect- FT (£)

  • "More than one million low-income workers are expected to lose up to £400 a year in council tax benefit as part of the Treasury’s plans to save £500 million" - Times (£)

The ten questions in the Government's Happiness survey - Daily Mail

Baroness Neville-Jones has accused China and Russia of carrying out cyber warfare attacks aimed at stealing national security secrets from other countries - Telegraph

Fox already eyeing return to front line - Independent

Fox Liam Apr11:2"“I would certainly like to get back to the front bench — how quickly, is another matter,” [he told BBC Bristol]. “For the moment I will enjoy having a little bit of extra time. There are one or two projects that I want to get involved in on the charitable side and to devote some time to that.” - Times (£)

  • "A millionaire venture capitalist has complained that he was 'mugged' when he donated money to help former defence secretary Liam Fox." -Daily Mail

Lord Forsyth says Alex Salmond has been threatening to sabotage plans for early Scottish referendum - Herald

Polly Toynbee is optimistic about Labour's electoral prospects

Toynbee Polly"In an election now, the leading psephologist Professor John Curtice reckons Labour could win outright. After the boundary changes, they would still be the biggest party in a hung parliament, gaining most from the Lib Dem collapse. It worries many in Labour ranks that as yet they have made no inroads into the Tory vote, but even so Curtice still gives Labour the winning edge. To be ahead at all is, he reckons, not bad only 18 months from a car-crash election, and he remarks on Labour's uncharacteristic freedom from serious internal discord." - Polly Toynbee in The Guardian

  • The latest YouGov/ Sun poll gives the Conservatives a 40% to 36% lead on this question: "If you had to choose, which would you prefer to see after the next election, a Conservative government led by David Cameron or a Labour government led by Ed Miliband?"

Minimum price of two litre bottle of cider would go from £1.20 to £3.75 under SNP plans - BBC

From Chelsea barracks to education, the Prince of Wales's abuse of position cries out for constitutional action - Peter Wilby in The Guardian

Don't worry about seven billion or even nine billion people because we have the technology to cope - Matt Ridley in The Times (£)

And finally... Oliver Letwin swaps park bin for 'mobile office' - 24dash.com

Posted by Britannia Radio at 08:54