A poll of leading economists yesterday found that the majority expected Europe to return to recession next year – which would severely undermine this country’s economic fortunes. The FTSE 100 index of Britain’s biggest firms yesterday closed down more than 5 per cent lower than it started 2011. In total, £90.5 billion has been wiped off the value of shares in the past year. British shares performed better than their European rivals – with the German stock market down 15 per cent in 2011, France falling by 17.6 per cent, Italy by 26 per cent and the Greek market down by more than 60 per cent. House prices increased in value only marginally, by one per cent, with falls in many areas outside London and the South East. “With the UK economy struggling to gain momentum, labour market conditions are likely to remain challenging in 2012, deterring buyers from entering the housing market,” said Robert Gardner, the chief economist at Nationwide, one of the country’s biggest mortgage firms. “The housing market in 2012 looks likely to be characterised by low levels of activity once again, with prices moving sideways or modestly lower over the course of the year.” The continuing turmoil in the euro means that few experts are optimistic about prospects for shares, property and the wider economy in 2012. Interest rates are expected to remain at the record low level of 0.5 per cent throughout the year – a blow to savers. A BBC poll of 34 independent economists who provide forecasts for the Bank of England found that one fifth expect the eurozone to break up in the next year. “Europe is going to face a deep recession in the first half of next year,” said Gerard Lyons, the chief economist at Standard Chartered bank. “It’s in terrible shape. Fundamentals are not good, policy stance is terrible and confidence has been shot to pieces.” Yesterday, Jean-Claude Juncker, the prime minister of Luxembourg, who leads the group of euro-area finance ministers, admitted that economic growth in the euro region “isn’t good” and that the world economy was growing only in some Asian and African countries. Þ Executive pay and the lack of women on company boards need to be tackled next year to put right some of Britain’s “key failings”, according to Simon Walker, the director general of the Institute of Directors. He told business leaders in his New Year message that executive pay at some of the country’s biggest companies had “got out of line”.House prices will remain stagnant or fall in 2012,
economists warn
British investors have been warned that they face a lacklustre year in 2012
after share prices and property values recorded another dismal 12 months during 2011.
Sunday, 1 January 2012
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