The books, the books! - by Richard... Monday, February 20, 2012

The books, the books! - by Richard... Monday, February 20, 2012

"I object to publishers. The one service they have done is to teach me to do without them. They combine artistic pettiness with commercial rascality being neither good judges of literature nor good business men".

George Bernard Shaw … as supplied by my publisher.

That said, the books are being released from the warehouse today. The formal publication date is 3 March. My apologies for the delay. When I said the books were "available" on 17 February, I didn't mean you could actually buy them - dear me no. What do you think we are?

COMMENT THREAD

Share

Print ready

A confused columnist - by Richard...

The Great Sage Wolfgang Münchau, doyen of European columnists and Custodian of All Knowledge, finally comes to the conclusion in the Financial Times that we reached over a week ago.

The German strategy, he writes, "seems to be to make life so unbearable that the Greeks themselves will want to leave the eurozone". He then adds: "Ms Merkel certainly does not want to be caught with a smoking gun in her hand".

But, in an article headed, "Greece must default if it wants democracy", he condemns the German strategy as one "of assisted suicide, and one that is extremely dangerous and irresponsible".

If Münchau is really serious about Greece having to default in order to restore democracy, what is the problem? After all, if Germany is trying to force a Greek default, does this not suggests that he and Germany are arguing for the same outcome?

So why is the strategy "extremely dangerous and irresponsible"?

COMMENT: "EAT AND DESTROY" THREAD

Share

Print ready

I just simply hope - by Richard...

The Sun and the Failygraph are covering this story, and even this obscure journal (above) points out that to give priority to a group on the basis of where they come from breaches employment law.

However, The Sun goes further, admitting that "EU laws ban discrimination against foreigners who apply for work here". But the Failygraph, recording the comments of the employment minister onSky News, told us that when it was put to him that prioritising British candidates could fall foul of those rules, Grayling stood by his remarks.

He said: "I just simply hope that the choices that employers make in this country will be to give young unemployed British people a chance, so it would be bizarre if I didn't say that and we'll do everything we can to encourage them to do so".

So that is what it has come down to … in matters of acute national interest, our minister has nothing to offer, other than to incite employers to break the law and then "just simply hope" that they get away with it.

COMMENT THREAD

Share

Print ready

The thin green line - by Richard...

No one is pretending it [the bailout] will end Greece's problems says Reuters, which then makes it plain that the bulk of the bailout money will not go to Greece.

A debt sustainability report delivered to eurozone finance ministers last week showed that under the main scenario, Greek debt will only fall to 129 percent by 2020. And that, of course, is assuming that the Greek government can deliver the promised cuts, and maintain its tax income – neither of which conditions look capable of being fulfilled.

And just to rub it in, it seems as if the escrow account idea has wings, although it has not been decided who will manage the account. On the face of it though, the effect of this is that Greece takes on the €130 billion loan, but has no power over how the funds are dispersed.

All this comes with Papademos flying to Brussels, doubtless to get his instructions from his masters, with The Sun reporting that another condition of the deal will be a postponement of the general election.

The concern to stop the elections is understandable, with current polls showing support for the two main parties nose diving. From 42.5 percent in October 2010, the socialist PASOK is down to 8.2 percent, according to MRB and published in the newspaper Real News, with the conservative New Democracy party dropping from 28 to 19 percent.

This is being recorded as a "historic low" for the two main parties, matched by a lurch to the left, with a coalition of the Communists, the Radical Left and the Democratic Left taking a combined 43.5 percent of the vote in one poll.

Variously reported, anything up to 59 percent of the population want an immediate election after the bailout has been decided but, whether a rejection of that demand will translate into violence is anyone's guess. The media, talking up the prospects of a violent response, talk of 2,000 demonstrators clashing with police, but these are small numbers compared with the half-million that the unions can put on the streets.

We haven't seen much police hardware in the pictures so far, and the "thin green lines" of police are just that … thin. So far – apart from the rash of burning Sunday week last - the police seem to be keeping control, even without pulling the heavy gear.

Thus, talks of an uprising may be premature, and even without substance. Away from the centre, the situation is reported calm. One wonders whether the more severe reactions will come not from the Greeks, but from the German people, when they realise what their rulers have committed them to.

COMMENT: "EAT AND DESTROY" THREAD

Share

Print ready

Facebook - by Richard...

It is a wonder that the human race actually survives.

COMMENT THREAD

6Share

Print ready

Drawn to the same conclusion - by Richard...

Ambrose is in the Failygraph telling us that it's all over … for the moment. Bowing to intense pressure from France, Italy, and the US-led bloc of global leaders, he says, Schäuble has toned down threats to force Greece out of the euro.

The German finance minister has said (through gritted teeth, no doubt) that the country is "on the right path" and signalled that pension cuts agreed by the Greek cabinet over the weekend would be enough to secure the bailout. Nor is Ambrose alone. Others, such as the Irish Times have got there as well, with Reuters coming in behind.

We do not, of course, get from Ambrose any mention of the commission – which will have been orchestrating the pressure. That would spoil the Failygraph's "house narrative" of a German-dominated EU. But he still ends up exactly where we were yesterday.

So, with no moles, no magic sources, no secret documents, mad conspiracies or even smoke and mirrors to rely on, we get there using good, old-fashioned analysis, based on a sound political appreciation of the issues.

There will still be the " … further hurdles which Greece will be required to surmount". They will have to come since the fundamentals haven't changed. The pressure on Greece will continue, externally and internally. The dance goes on.

COMMENT: "EAT AND DESTROY" THREAD

Share

Print ready

Eat and destroy - by Richard...

After weeks of brinkmanship, bad blood and missed deadlines (to say nothing of wacky conspiracy theories with "secret" plans so secret that even their authors are not allowed to see them), a Greek debt deal may finally be within reach.

So says the Wall Street Journal (apart from the bits in the brackets), speculating on the possible outcome of today's Eurogroup meeting. The paper bases its thinking on the decision by the Greek Cabinet yesterday to find all the extra cuts needed to lower spending by €325 million, thus apparently surmounting the final hurdle standing between that benighted country and its bailout.

Maybe the WSJ is right, even if, as Ambrose suggests, it is too late to make any difference. However, what you see in the WSJ is a lingering belief that the Greeks (and the EU member states) are dealing with an economic problem, as the paper goes on to set out the measures which must be taken to resolve the deeper euro crisis.

Having set it all out in detail, the paper then argues that, unless this is what eurozone finance ministers have in mind as they sit down on Monday, they should have no business signing the deal. To go ahead, it says, with a flawed Greek bailout without a plan to accelerate eurozone integration and create a functional monetary union would be an act of calculated cynicism that would simply deepen Greek - and European - agony.

But, of course, what the WSJ demands as a minimum is not within the realms of political possibility, not with the German chancellor riding high on the belief that she is going to oust the spendthrift Greeks, and restore discipline to the euro-rump, once the rest of the PIIGS (less Ireland) have been excommunicated.

Thus, it is not an economic solution which will be bartered today, but a political compromise. It will be one which is set to achieve the impossible – keeping Greece within the euro yet keeping the increasingly fractious Germans on-side.

Thus, whatever comes out of the smoke-free room later today will be a fudge. It will not work, and there will be no real expectation that it will work. The name of the game is to deal with the crise du jour by buying enough time for preparations to be made for the next one.

Inevitably, therefore, embedded in the agreement that comes – to emerge later, after the hullabaloo has abated – may well be the poison pill which brings the whole thing down, or merely triggers the next crisis. Perhaps what will really happen is that we'll get another fabulously secret plan, this time so secret that its authors will be killed before they have even devised it, thus ensuring that nobody at all in the world knows the details.

On the other hand, when whatever happens actually happens, we will be in exactly the same position of wondering what on earth is going on, reflecting exactly the mindset of our rulers who, by all accounts, are making it up as they go along.

But, just to be on the safe side, you are advised to eat your computer after reading this post, and then press your personal self-destruct button. You just can't be too careful these days.