Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005 -- formerly China Confidential -- What's Really Happening in the WorldForeign Confidential ™
Monday, February 27, 2012
Chechen Rebels Planned to Kill Putin
N. Korea Warns South on Drills
Sunday, February 26, 2012
Key Lesson of 1967 and the Looming Iran War
Foreign Confidential™ Exclusive: Ayatollah Orders Cargo Ship-Based Missile Strikes on US Homeland if US or Israel Attacks Iran
Israel Inks Arms Deal With Azerbaijan
US Senator: Saudis Could Calm Oil Markets
Saturday, February 25, 2012
Chinese Vision of the Mideast Emerges
Monday, 27 February 2012
A Chechen separatist plot to assassinate Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has been foiled, as reported here. The suspects planned to kill Putin in Moscow immediately following the March 4 presidential election, which he is expected to win.
Rose Kim reports from Seoul:
The U.S. and South Korea began annual military drills over the objections of North Korea, which called the exercises a violation of its sovereignty that could lead to confrontation.
“The war drills are an unpardonable infringement upon the sovereignty and dignity” of North Korea, the official Korean Central News Agency said today in an editorial. “The army and people of the DPRK are fully ready to fight a war…."
Related: New N. Korean Provocations Likely
45 Years After its Astonishing Six-Day War Victory,
Israel Could Feel Compelled to Strike Iran Alone,
and Aim to Neutralize Nuclear and Missile Threats
There is increasing speculation that Israel will attack Iran to eliminate its menacing nuclear project--possibly in June--and that Saudi Arabia will support the assault. Click here for the report.
Reading it, this reporter is struck by a coincidence: June 5, 2012 will mark the 45th anniversary of the Six-Day War. Israel's remarkable victory in that conflict could well be guiding the Jewish State's military and political leaders more than the 1981 Israeli air raid that destroyed an Iraqi nuclear reactor and the presumed 2007 Israeli attack that obliterated a secret Syrian nuclear site.
In 1967, encircled by enemies that were mobilizing for an all-out war of annihilation, and feeling abandoned and alone, Israel launched a series of lightning-like, preemptive strikes that assured it of a stunning victory. The critically important initial move was a surprise attack on Egyptian airfields that destroyed virtually the entire Egyptian Air Force--on the ground.
Four-and-a-half decades later, Iran is defiantly pressing ahead on the atomic front while threatening to eradicate Israel (after musing openly about "a world without America and Zionism"). The United States, Israel's main ally, is reportedly pressuring Israel to refrain from attacking Iran. If Israel decides to go ahead on its own, it will have to use all its U.S.-made fighter jets, plus precision-guided bombs, cruise missiles and air-to-ground missiles to take out numerous hardened installations.
Even if the mission is successful--Israeli planes will have to fly over 1,000 miles to reach their targets--Iran will still be able to retaliate with massive missile strikes on Israeli cities. There is every reason to believe that Iran will try to make good on repeated threats to "burn Tel Aviv" and wipe Israel out in "nine minutes."
Which brings us back to the Six-Day War. Just as Israel in 1967 destroyed Egypt's Air Force before its bombers could attack Israeli troops and civilians, Israel's initial moves in a war with Iran could be aimed at neutralizing or at least minimizing the mullahocracy's capacity to carry out crushing reprisals. Israel has the weaponry--and the political will--to do this.
Remember: the Iranian nuclear threat is a future, albeit increasingly imminent, existential threat to Israel; but the Iranian/Hezbollah/Hamas missile threat is a present-day existential threat, given that perhaps as many as 200,000 rockets and ballistic missiles are believed to be pointed at and capable of striking the tiny Jewish State.
ENDNOTE: Israeli leaders are guided, too, by what happened in October 1973--i.e. the nearly catastrophic Yom Kippur War--specifically, by the intelligence and political failures that prevented preemptive strikes by Israel and made possible coordinated sneak attacks by Egypt and Syria that almost resulted in Israel's destruction. Iranian threats to attack Israel (and the U.S.) first are not taken lightly in Israel.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Amid escalating threats to Israel by Iran, the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has ordered its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps to strike the United States with ballistic missiles if the U.S. or Israel attacks Iran over its nuclear program.
So say Foreign Confidential™ analysts. Khamenei is insisting that the IRGC attack the U.S. homeland in order to make ordinary Americans experience what it is like to have their cities bombarded by missiles, analysts say, and to inspire anti-American assaults by terrorist groups and mobs across the globe.
Khamenei is believed to have ordered the IRGC to deploy its fleet of foreign-flagged, seemingly civilian cargo ships so as to be able to strike "the Great Satan" on short notice. The vessels are armed with missiles concealed in containerized launching systems, and are thus capable of approaching U.S. cities along the Atlantic, Pacific, and Gulf of Mexico coasts without being detected until firing their projectiles.
There is no known defense against a sea-based attack of this kind.
Analysts say that in addition to missile attacks on U.S. soil, Iran is also planning Mumbai-style swarming assaults on U.S. population centers, including transportation hubs and commercial complexes. IRGC Quds Force and Hezbollah units are said to be preparing to carry out the terrorist attacks, which could involve hostage taking.
The commander of the ultra-elite Quds Force reports directly to Khamenei.
If Iran attacks the U.S. using cargo ships, the vessels will be controlled by Quds Force personnel who will be ordered to blow themselves and their ships up after firing their missiles to avoid destruction or possible capture by the U.S. military.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Israel has confirmed that it will sell $1.6 billion in arms to Iran's neighbor, Azerbaijan, as reported here.
A public promise from Saudi Arabia, the world's top oil exporter, to pump oil at its full capacity would calm oil markets as well as gasoline prices, [Charles] Schumer, the third-ranking Democrat in the Senate, said in a letter to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In the letter, which was obtained by Reuters, Schumer asked Clinton to urge the Saudi government to increase production to full capacity of 12.5 million barrels per day - an increase of 2.5 million barrels.
Click here to read the entire article.
It appears that China has decided it is time to stake out its own position in the Middle East as a great power with its own significant and legitimate interests in the region, instead of trying to shoehorn itself into whatever diplomatic coalition the United States or Russia invokes to deal with the latest crisis.
Yes, China as "responsible stakeholder" appears ready to take the Middle Eastern stage.
The Chinese move is an ironic and predictable counter-point to America's "strategic pivot" into East Asia.
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