Foreign Confidential ™
Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005 -- formerly China Confidential -- What's Really Happening in the World
Friday, April 13, 2012
Can Kim Survive $1 Billon Loss of Face?
Heads will roll. Will North Korea's new leader lose his after such a stunning setback?
Probably not. The elite needs the dynasty, depends on it for food, luxury items and privileges. Nobody in or close to power actually believes in the official ideology. Although there are maniacs among the elite, including some in the military, who harbor dreams of eventually conquering South Korea, dominating Japan, and pushing the United States off the Korean Peninsula--and perhaps, even, destroying the U.S. with a surprise EMP strike that could be launched from a foreign-flagged cargo ship--the goal for most members of North Korea's ruling class is simply to survive, meaning, to live as well as possible from day to day without being murdered or sent to prison.
But who really knows what goes on in the country-sized concentration camp, especially at the highest levels? Some inner circle members could well be whispering, or at leastthinking, that a conveniently staged accident--or assassination that could be blamed on South Korea--might be in order following the unbelievable humiliation of the failed ICBM launch, which reportedly cost a whopping $1 billion.
A significant portion of which was probably paid for by Pyongyang's partner in nuclear and missile crimes, Iran. Its experts observed the North's missile launch, Foreign Confidential™ analysts say, and will also be on hand for the country's upcoming missile firings … and nuclear tests.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Tehran Takes Tankers Off Radar to Hide Oil Sales
Iran has taken its entire entire oil tanker fleet off radar to conceal crude shipments--the tracking systems on all 39 ships have been disabled--and the Islamist regime is offering deep discounts to buyers. The measures are aimed at countering sanctions over Iran's nuclear program. Click here for the story, a Reuters exclusive.
New Era of North Korean Belligerence Begins
Foreign Confidential™ early warning.
A new era of North Korean belligerence has begun, which could lead to a full-blown war between the criminal Kimist regime--which depends on China for most of its food, fuel, and armaments--and U.S. ally South Korea.
The North defiantly conducted an illegal test of an intercontinental ballistic missile, thinly disguised as a space rocket. The failure of the so-called satellite launch--the missile disintegrated moments after blasting off--will only make the North more defiant and more belligerent, because the test was foolishly staged as a media event. (First rule of a seasoned public relations specialist: whenever possible avoid inviting the press to any event with an outcome that can't be controlled.) Thus, the regime was forced to acknowledge the failure--an unprecedented move by the world's most secretive and repressive dictatorship.
The fiasco will strengthen the hands of those within the ruling circle who opposed the opening to the world media in the first place, meant to show off the North's achievements as it celebrates the 100th birthday of its founding leader, Kim Il Sung, the current Kim's grandfather. (The North's dynastic rule is unparalleled in the history of world Communism.)
One or more nuclear tests are in the works, analysts say. Worse, they warn, the North will feel compelled to do something spectacular in the missile sphere to make up for the historic embarrassment of the failed ICBM test. Provocations could transcend mere drills; instead, the North could again attack a South Korean island, or similar target--maybe even a military base--this time using short-range missiles as well as artillery shells.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Thursday, April 12, 2012
North Admits 'Satellite Launch' Failed
By insisting that the launch had a peaceful purpose, and showing a certain degree of sophistication in disclosing that it did not succeed in sending a satellite into orbit, the North is most likely setting the stage for a new nuclear test as a response to anticipated international condemnations of the defiant missile firing.
North Korea Could Lash Out Following Fiasco
Following its monumental propaganda disaster--the breakup of its long-range ballistic missile--North Korea could lash out at South Korea, analysts say, in an attempt to cover up the North's historic failure, which was staged to demonstrate its military and technical achievements.
Given the North's secretive nature, totalitarian system, and penchant for disinformation, anything is possible, including an accusation by the Kimist regime that its so-called space rocket was shot down or electronically downed by South Korea or the United States--or Japan, for that matter.
N. Korea Fires Long-Range Rocket
Embarrassment for Regime
Failure or not, knowledge was gained--and Iran was involved in Pyongyang's provocation, analysts say. North Korea's proliferation partner paid for the launch; Iranians observed the event.
It is only a matter of time before the North achieves its aims--consider how many failures the United States and the Soviet Union experienced before perfecting ICBMs and space rockets--and is able to credibly threaten the U.S.
In the meantime, the North will soon stage another nuclear test; and the failure, assuming the missile broke apart shortly after firing, could spur the regime to engineer an armed clash with South Korea--or the U.S.
UPDATE: Japan says the rocket fell into the sea just one minute after liftoff.
China Smashing Bo's Machine
Striking coverage of the Bo Xilai scandal by China's state media. Click here for the People's Daily.
The New York Times analyzes the Chinese media fight against Bo and his family and associates-click here to read the article--noting that state outlets say some individuals are being accused of acquiring dual citizenships and "foreign identities."
Foreign Confidential™ has been reporting that many members of China's elite, capital flight class have obtained dual citizenships and/or overseas permanent residencies.
Iran Confident of Nuclear Talks Outcome
The nuclear-arming Iranian mullahocracy believes it can manipulate the upcoming nuclear talks to its great advantage, as reported here and here.
The DEBKAfile report--a solid exclusive--is most disturbing. It confirms that which Foreign Confidential™ has long feared and forecasted--namely, that Iran and its supporters and sympathizers will manage to turn the dispute over oil-rich Iran's apocalyptic atomic advance against Israel, or, at the very least, score important propaganda victories by focusing attention on the Jewish State's presumed nuclear deterrent.
An 11th-hour deal--a new peace for our time--which would allow Iran to surreptitiously continue to develop nuclear weapons while openly developing long-range ballistic missiles and also maintaining stockpiles of biological and chemical weapons, would be a disaster for Israel and, ultimately, for the United States, too, given Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's musings about "a world without America and Zionism" and the threat of an anonymous nuclear attack on the U.S. homeland, against which there does not appear to be a credible deterrent.
Incredibly, the ballistic missile and related bio-chem issues are not and have never been on the diplomatic agenda of the so-called international community (which has thus far shown itself to be incapable of ending the nuclear and missile crimes of Islamist Iran's proliferation partner, Kimist North Korea). Mainstream media outlets have also ignored the threats.
The fundamental issue is intentions. Iran's intentions, unfortunately, seem both frighteningly clear and frighteningly reminiscent of Nazi Germany in the years leading up to World War II, when a policy of appeasement on the part of the European powers not only failed to preserve the peace, but made war inevitable--on Germany's terms. Iran expects … intends … to eventually go to war against Israel and the U.S. Accordingly, Iran will make every effort possible to make certain that the conflict, when it finally comes, will be fought on Tehran's terms.
Endnote: Click here to read a particularly odious--and ominous--opinion article about the shape of a possible nuclear deal with Iran. Contrary to the writer's assertions, Iran is closer than ever to acquiring atomic arms, thanks to decades of appeasement and, worse, attempts to actually align with the clerical fascist regime. In fact, its nuclear infrastructure could be sufficiently scattered, hardened, and well hidden so as to make verification of any deal that Iran might find acceptable practically impossible; inspections, essentially meaningless.
And … speaking of odious … Iran would probably insist on a U.S. non-intervention pledge as part of any deal.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
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