Foreign Confidential ™
Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005 -- formerly China Confidential -- What's Really Happening in the World
Wednesday, April 25, 2012
Israelis Fear Iran Could be Building Dirty Bombs
Iran has nuclear materials, money, missiles and warheads, scientific and technical expertise, conventional explosives, and political will and determination, etc. So why shouldn't we assume that Iran, while working on nuclear weapons, has already produced an arsenal of advanced radiological dirty bombs--and various means of delivering them?
The distinction some experts make between weapons of mass destruction and "mass disruption" is clever … but far from comforting when one stops to consider: the large numbers of people powerful explosives are capable of killing and maiming; the immediate and long-term health hazards from radiation poisoning; the billions of dollars in economic damage that a dirty bomb could cause; and the potentially paralyzing, psychological impact of a dirty bomb attack on a targeted population.
Moreover, given the focus on Al Qaeda's quest for a dirty bomb, what, exactly, is the deterrent against an anonymous and deniable Iranian dirty bomb attack on an American city, which could be carried out by Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps Quds Force operatives and/or terrorist proxies and allies?
N. Korea Claims its Mobile Weapons Can Defeat US
'Single Blow' Boast Suggests EMP Stealth Strike Capability
North Korea claims to have "mobile weapons" capable of defeating the United States "at a single blow." Click here for the story. [NOTE: urgent update added below at 1:37 PM EDT.]
The boast could refer to a covert, electromagnetic pulse (EMP) strike capability. North Korea and Iran are believed to have jointly developed and tested systems for launching conventional and nuclear-tipped missiles from cargo ships in order to attack a coastal city or, in an EMP assault scenario, to detonate a nuclear warhead high above the targeted nation. An explosion of this kind could in a flash wipe out all electronic and communications systems and plunge the United States back into the pre-electric, early 19th Century--without that era's infrastructure and resources. As one columnist who has written about the EMP threat has noted:
The resulting electromagnetic pulse effect … could knock out most of our computers and electronics, shutting down the electric grid system and leaving us without power, light, heat, water, transportation and most agriculture. The chairman of the congressionally authorized EMP Commission estimated 70 to 90% of our entire population would die from starvation and disease within one year.
There is no known land defense against such a sea-launched missile attack. Thousands of cargo vessels flying flags of convenience regularly approach U.S. coastal waters. It is not inconceivable that North Korea and Iran may have already deployed a fleet of freighters equipped with the deadly weapons and launch pads--concealed in seemingly ordinary shipping containers. Some of these vessels could even be lurking offshore as of this writing; hence, the continued defiance and apparent absence of fear on the part of the world's foremost partners in nuclear and missile crimes. Commenting on their brazen threats in March 2007, Foreign Confidential™ (then China Confidential) reported that Iran and China
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are suspected of illegally acquiring Soviet-era Russian cruise missiles via Ukraine and perhaps Pakistan and successfully reverse engineering and further developing the technology with the assistance of North Korea.
Tehran's arsenal of Chinese-designed and -assisted weapons includes the Shahab series of medium range ballistic missiles; potential families of solid-fueled missiles and long-range land-attack cruise missiles; and short-range anti-ship and man-launched anti-aircraft missiles.
Cruise and other missiles could be launched from a number of different offshore platforms or basing systems that would give citizens in coastal cities almost no warning before impact….
Some 75% of the US population lives within 200 miles of the US coastline. Nuclear-tipped missile strikes could cripple the country. The destruction caused by a nuclear warhead detonating in the air over the nation's capital would make the 9/11 attacks look mild by comparison.
The Foreign Confidential™ article went on to describe the most plausible sea-based attack scenarios:
(1) SCUD-IN-A-BUCKET: Foreign flagged commercial ships could carry Russian designed Scuds or Chinese Silkworm cruise missiles for easy launch from international waters. Some types of dry cargo ships could launch the missiles from their holds. A container ship could conceal a missile and launch mechanism in an innocent looking shipping container on top of its deck before authorities even knew that an attack was in progress. Iran and North Korea have successfully test-fired Scuds from cargo ships. And the US itself experimented with the technique back in the early 1960s.
(2) CANISTER-LAUNCH: The Soviet Union developed this technique during the Cold War. It involves placing a ballistic missile in a sealed tube and dropping it in the sea from the deck of a commercial vessel. The bottom of the tube, sealed off from the missile, is weighted with ballast to achieve a specific level of buoyancy to ensure that the nose of the missile points up just enough to barely break the sea’s surface. After an interval to allow the mother ship to move on--and maybe drop off other encapsulated missiles--the rockets could be remotely launched or fired by timers and guided to their targets by the ship's commercial GPS system.
UPDATE: The North Korean warning coincides with the publication by Asia Times of a long essay by Pyongyang's unofficial spokesperson in Japan, Kim Myong Chol, which includes a chilling EMP threat. "Whether the Americans are aware of it or not," Kim warns, "the US faces two worst-case scenarios in a showdown with the administration of Kim Jong-eun: One is the prospect of finding their skyscraping metropolitan centers bombed back to the Stone Age and vaporized in a consuming thermonuclear exchange. The other is a certain prospect of nine of ten Americans dying in a swift retaliatory EMP strike to be launched by North Korea." This may be the first-ever EMP threat by North Korea against the United States--with an added threat against Japan: "Supreme commander Kim Jong-eun may be tempted to single the Japanese archipelago out as the first testing site for EMP bombs for the Americans to see the extent of its destructiveness."
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Iranians Will Observe N. Korean Nuclear Test
Iranian scientists, technicians, and military and intelligence officers observed North Korea's previous nuclear tests, analysts add.
Analysis: N. Korean Sneak Attack on Seoul Possible
Foreign Confidential™ analysts believe that North Korea, while readying its next nuclear test, may also be preparing to launch a spectacular sneak attack on South Korea's capital, Seoul, following the North'sthreat to reduce the South Korean government to ashes within minutes.
An attack by the North on the South "by unprecedented peculiar means and methods" would be designed to avoid a confrontation with U.S. forces, analysts say. The United States has approximately 30,000 troops stationed in South Korea.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Monday, April 23, 2012
How is a Missile Different From a Bomb?
Egypt Bans Eight American NGOs
Egypt has rejected applications by eight American nongovernmental organizations to operate in the country, including an election-monitoring group led by former U.S. President Jimmy Carter.
Egyptian state news agency MENA said Monday the country's Social Affairs Ministry denied licenses to the American civil society organizations because their activities violate Egyptian sovereignty. The news agency said the eight blacklisted groups include the Carter Center, Coptic Orphans and Seeds of Peace. The names of the other five organizations could not be confirmed.
Egyptian authorities raided the offices of several American pro-democracy groups and other NGOs last year, and filed criminal charges against 16 American activists on suspicion of using illegally obtained funds to undermine Egypt's stability.
The crackdown triggered a major diplomatic dispute, with Washington threatening to withdraw $1.3 billion in annual military aid to Cairo for imposing a travel ban on the American activists. An Egyptian judge lifted the ban last month, allowing the Americans to leave the country and avoid possible imprisonment.
Iran Oil Sector Struck by Computer Virus
Israel Urges Egypt to Uphold Peace Treaty
Cairo's Canceling of Gas Deal is Cause for Concern
Israel on Monday urged Egypt to uphold their 1979 peace treaty after Cairo canceled a long-term deal to supply natural gas to the Jewish state. "The supply of gas is not part of the peace agreement, but it is certainly an important commercial agreement, which expresses the stable relations between the two states," said Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman. He expressed hope that the issue would be solved "like any commercial disagreement, without taking on political dimensions" but said the unilateral cancelation of the gas deal was "not a good sign." Lieberman told Israeli radio: "Israel is interested in keeping the peace agreement and we think this is also in Egypt‘s highest interest.”
Read more.
US Warns of Terror Attacks in Nairobi
Embassy Advises Americans in Kenya's Capital to be Alert
The U.S. embassy in Kenya is warning of possible terrorist attacks in the capital, Nairobi, and is telling Americans in the city to stay alert.
The embassy issued a message Monday saying it has credible information about a possible attack on Nairobi hotels and prominent Kenyan government buildings.
The statement says the timing of the attack is not known but that the embassy has “reason to believe the potential attack is in the last stages of planning.”
There was no immediate comment from the Kenyan government.
Britain issued a similar warning about possible attacks in January.
There have been a number of small-scale attacks in Nairobi and in northeastern Kenya since last October, when Kenya sent troops into Somalia to fight the Al Qaeda-associated Al-Shabab group.
Terrorists linked to Al Qaeda and Osama bin Laden bombed the U.S. embassy in Nairobi in August 1998, killing more than 200 people.
Iran Resorts to Floating Oil Storage
Austerity Backlash Builds in Europe
North Korea Threatens to Incinerate Seoul
The tirade is unusual in terms of its specificity, as reported here.
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