Hollow men
I had a long talk yesterday afternoon with someone who had been at the West Bradford count, where the Galloway victory was declared. He confirmed the point that the result had come as a complete shock to the established parties, although Galloway had been parading round the counting centre very early, claiming a victory.
Nor even did the media pick it up, neither national nor local. In fact, even at the count, local BBC reporter Nick Morris was saying that the turnout had been very low, "possibly low thirties", when in fact it was 50 percent – higher than normal for a by-election. Sky News's Jon Craig predicted: "Labour win, George Galloway 2nd, Tories pushed into 3rd place after fuel blunders." And, of course, the local paper, the Telegraph and Argus, had gone to sleep. Of equal interest though, my informant absolutely confirmed that which I asserted at the time, that this was a "two-finger" vote. And although directed primarily against Labour, it must not be forgotten that the Conservative vote also collapsed, with candidate, Jackie Whiteley coming in at 2,746 votes, compared with the Tory vote of 12,638 in the general. But now – inevitably – everyone's an expert, and the know-nothing media have suddenly picked up, to them, the startling idea that the public is seriously out of sorts with the political classes, even if it is something we've been banging on about it on this blog for years. And so do we get the state where the famous James Forsyth does a Rip Van-Winkle awakening and looks round to observe that: "the big question in British politics right now is what happens when the voters are dissatisfied with all the three main parties and their leaders". This, of course, is from a hack who has been bigging up Cameron for all he is worth and, like so many of his tribe, he is suddenly discovering that his hero has feet of clay. And, although our James struggles to see any serious break in the three party mould at the next general election, he too is in the market for statement of the bleedin' obvious. "It is hard to imagine that the electorate's dissatisfaction with all three parties can go on much longer without something giving", he says. Melanie Phillips is also in the market. But she goes for a touch of political soothsaying, only she lays greater store by Don Porter than we do, with whom we were less than impressed. She, though, is closer to the ground than the Famous Forsyth, slamming Cameron, and remarking that the general public is "able to detect shallowness and falsity in its political leaders at a thousand paces". I don't know when Melanie first turned against The Boy (I read her blog about as often as she reads mine), but to give her her due, she has been opposed to him for some time, in 2010 calling him "cynical" and dangerous to the British national interest. But now Cameron seems to be falling out of fashion, maybe more of our corps of gifted hacks will join in the chorus of condemnation. And when, with the same degree of perspicacity that they addressed the West Bradford by-election, they tell us what is going to happen, we can fall on our knees and revere them for their sagacity. In the interim, though, we might just have to accept that they know very little about what is happening on the ground, and not a great deal about much else. Melanie actually quotes Shakespeare for her piece, from Julius Caesar, Act IV, scene II: But hollow men, like horses hot at hand, Make gallant show and promise of their mettle; But when they should endure the bloody spur, They fall their crests, and, like deceitful jades, Sink in the trial.She was referring to the "Cameroon modernisers" but she could just as well have been talking about her know-all media colleagues and their "gallant show". COMMENT THREAD Richard North 11/04/2012 |
Panic, shmanic In the round, the largely ignorant market traders are no better at predicting major economic movements than are their "teenage scribbler" colleagues in the MSM. But it is nonetheless mildly entertaining to watch the headless chickens at play, as The Guardian reports: "European stock markets rocked by panic selling as debt crisis reignites". What we are seeing, of course, is a dose of the inevitable, as the focus moves from Greece to Spain (via Portugal, of course), as the stresses of the single currency continues to exert their malign influence on the ClubMed states. That said, though, this is not "carnage" – if you want that, go to Syria. Except for the nerds, however, the details are too tedious to record, and there is no appetite at present to immerse oneself in the blow-by-blow accounts that are on offer. Suffice it to say that what is happening now was predictable (and predicted), although we still further from the end game than most – including myself – predicted. And if one needs to look for a reason, we have to go no further than Erik Britton, of City consultancy Fathom. In a statement of the bleedin' obvious, he says: "The LTRO [long term refinancing operation] and all those things, all it's done is bought a bit of time, but it hasn't addressed the structural problems, even slightly, even for Greece". For the future, a twist of the knife is anticipated after the Greek general election which is now slated for 6 May. Opinion polls currently show support for the mainstream "pro-austerity" parties is too weak to allow them to form a government. An unstable minority party coalition party, pledged to unravel some of the so-called "reforms" is bound to send sentiment into another nose-dive, and refocus attention back on Greece. Another juicy crisis is, therefore, on the cards, before the panic is put to bed for the summer hols. My money (or overdraft, to be more precise) is still on a Greek collapse in the autumn, if for no other reason than it is sufficiently far ahead for me to be able to dine out on the prediction and not be called out. One day, it will happen, and the whole thing will come tumbling down, but the current market "panic" is just the froth of the day. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 11/04/2012 |
European impotence
"So much for the ceasefire", headlines the Daily Mail as Syrian tanks keep shelling Homs after UN deadline has passed.
Over 1,000 people have died in eight days; shells have been fired in defiance of passing deadline to pull troops and heavy weapons out of towns; Britain's Foreign Secretary William Hague has accused Syria of breaking international law; funerals have been held for three killed inside refugee camp in Turkey as well as Lebanese cameraman shot dead across border; there are fears that Turkish troops may enter conflict after Turkey's PM warns they are planning 'steps' and accuses regime of shooting children 'in the back'; and Syria hits back by accusing Turkey of arming and helping rebel fighters. What then of the fabled European Union with its common foreign policy, and its fabled Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the like of which was supposed to impose peace and harmony on all men? Well, as with the lack of unity in Afghanistan, with the French talking of a unilateral withdrawal, the EU is demonstrating in Syria nothing other than its own impotence. You would have thought, in fact, that the EU would be taking quite a robust line with this country, with French interests stretching back to the League of Nations mandate of 1923. But this is not at all evident from the response after widespread protests erupted in this country in March 2011. As President Assad moved in troops to quash the nascent rebellion, the violence spread. And the EU did?
Well, the only thing it managed was an arms embargo on Syria, an asset freeze and visa ban on 13 top Syrian officials (pictured top).
And on the first anniversary of the violence, when the UN was estimating that more than 8,000 people had been killed in the violence, what else did the EU do? Well, no less than the president of the EU parliament, Martin Schulz, asserted that there was "no other solution than a political solution to the situation", with the European Parliament offering its "unconditional support" to the United Nations Arab League special envoy Kofi Annan. And then, terror of all terrors to the dictators of this world, we had the 3157th Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Brussels on 22-23 March 2012.  Yet it was Syrian Army tanks which were roaming the streets of Homs (pictured), slaughtering people and devastating the town. Despite the Turks possibly considering putting their own troops in, there is not a single EU badge to be seen. So much then for the CSDP. The next time Assad hears a "robust" statement from either the EU parliament or the Council, in the manner of Stalin he might well ask how many divisions they have. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 11/04/2012 |
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