Turning left?
Wednesday 25 April 2012
 Without taking this too far, or getting immersed in the arcane details of Germany's internal politics, we can concede that Wagenknecht might be onto something. Every now and again, we see this sort of seismic shift throughout the whole of Europe, where for apparently different reasons people suddenly decide to change direction. If we are on the edge of such a shift, then this could have interesting implications for the UK, with its local elections next week. The Tories are looking increasingly dodgy and the only thing they can expect in the near future, by way of light relief, is a Hunt Ball – in duplicate. On this, it is a fair bet that the last thing the Tories wanted to guide them through an election campaign was a Labour and media circus demanding the resignation of one of their wunderkind. But, if the blues bomb next week, without even breaking one of their oars, it could be a reflection of that emerging seismic shift, rather than a side-effect of the Murdoch show. The difficulty with analysing this is that the current situation is that it is beginning to look like a Julius Caesar assassination scene (or Murder on the Nile), where the dead body has so many holes in it that it is difficult to pin the deed on any one assassin. It could even be that, rather than seeing anything particularly profound, we are simply seeing the "switch" in action. This is the phenomenon we see when new governments can do no wrong, however crass they might be, until one day sentiment turns, and nothing they do is right. Should that be the case, then we are not looking for a single mortal wound, but for a death by a thousand "cuts", so to speak. Every hand that wields the knife shall have partaken in the murder. I would like to think, though, that we are seeing old-fashioned cyclical politics, but for one reason and one reason alone. It this is a seismic shift, a trend, that there is very little an incumbent party can do about it. The Tory demise will be rather like the fly trapped in the web, as the spider gets ever closer. They say about politicians that you should be careful who you offend on the way up, and you may meet them again – on your way down. Cameron and his pals might have heeded that advice. We are in the land of the mixed metaphors here, and they can be fatal. We watched them climb, and we will watch them fall. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 25/04/2012 |
A robust eurosceptic?
Tuesday 24 April 2012
"UKIP were relevant 15 years ago", said George Eustice MP on Newsnight, "But now we have a robust Eurosceptic as Prime Minister they are irrelevant" – leaned via The Boiling Frog.
If this man actually believes what he is saying, then he's a fool. If he doesn't, he's a knave. Either way, he isn't exactly adding to the credibility of the party he represents. What does he think he is trying to achieve? COMMENT THREAD Richard North 24/04/2012 |
Scare stocks down today
Tuesday 24 April 2012
It is quite fun to watch Holland "do a Belgium" and get rid of its government. Add an "e" - that takes you to France and bogie-man Francois Hollande, the combination of which is enough to bring back fear to the eurozone, at least according to The Independent.
However, the "fear returns" meme is being rather over-used - The Guardian had it on 23 March, so it is a bit early for a re-run. But then you just have to glance at some of the other headline on the on-line edition of the Inde and you quickly happen upon this, which is an absolute classic: "Danger from the deep: New climate threat as methane rises from cracks in Arctic ice". This is stuff straight out of the horror movies, reinforced by the "appeal to authority" as the strap line tells you: "Scientists shocked to find greenhouse gas 70 times more potent than CO2 bubbling from deep ocean". Well, well, "scientists shocked", eh? Things must be bad.  Of course, what the newspaper is doing is exploiting the deep-set pattern of behaviour which seems inherent in human beings. Hobbes had it all those centuries ago (above), and you can always count on making a buck out of scaring your fellow man. A skilled exponent of the scare has been James Lovelock, but he is canny enough to see which way the wind is blowing, and is now admitting to having been "alarmist" about climate change. Having it both ways, of course, is the Daily Wail, which publishes that story, as indeed it ran with the "shock horror" in 2009 (below), doing exactly the same as Lovelock. You get them on the way up and you get them on the way down. Either way, the punters pay.  The only thing is that the Inde isn't as astute as the Wail, which is why the latter still sells in the millions and the Inde isn't even a rounding error in circulation terms. Trading in fear is all very well, but you have to pick the right scare and match the cycle - "climate" is on the way down. Euro-fears are a runner, except that people are a bit jaded after Greece, so it is going to be a while before that is cranked up and really gets going. Zerohedge is doing its best, but it's slogging a dead horse at the moment. Its time will come, but not just yet. Look at this: "Billions wiped off Europe's biggest companies as political rebellion rocks eurozone", says the Failygraph, and it doesn't even get the front page. That's not to say that Mencken didn't get it right when he told us: "The whole aim of practical politics is to keep the populace alarmed (and hence clamorous to be led to safety) by menacing it with an endless series of hobgoblins, all of them imaginary." But here, as in life generally, timing is everything. The Wail is running the "Marathon death girl" as its lead. That's where we're at. Scare stocks are down today. COMMENT THREAD |
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