Friday 25 May 2012
Friday, 25 May 2012
If I had my wits about me, I would have realised that the French election cycle was not over and theparliamentary elections were yet to come, to elect the 14th National Assembly of the Fifth Republic. The first round of a complex two-round system is on 10 June and the second is on 17 June.
This is not exactly headline news in the British media, but the fact that the French are in the middle of an election campaign easily explains the game-playing that we're getting from Hollande, who is pitching for an outright victory from the 577 seats up for grabs.
Failing that, he will be seeking a coalition with the Radicals and Greens. At worse, Hollande will seek to form a minority government with the support from either the Left Front or Centrists.
On the other hand, the incumbent majority, currently made up from the UMP, NC and Alliance, will be looking, if not to spark the famous "cohabitation" or a minority government, to stay as the right-wing's only parliamentary force.
I am not going to pretend that I understand French politics - I'm not even sure I understand my own – but Reuters is saying that the shock of Sarkozy's failure to win re-election has triggered a power struggle in his centre-right UMP party which could affect its standing in the parliamentary elections.
This seems to be confirmed by a recent opinion poll suggesting that the UMP will struggle to keep the majority it has held in parliament since 2002. It found 46 percent first-round support for the left, against just 33 percent for the UMP, which has no obvious coalition partner.
Hollande clearly is leaving nothing to chance with his surprise visit to Afghanistan, reaffirming his pre-election pledge to close down the French military operation there, ahead of the coordinated Nato pull-out.
Typically, Hollande is putting national (or party political) interest first, over and above multilateralism, saying, "It's a sovereign decision. Only France can decide what France does". This will play well with his electorate, although his Nato partners will be less pleased. And what does that say for Anglo-French military co-operation, much less the CSDP?
In the nature of things though, we can expect a more communautaire outlook once the election results are in which will coincide with the results from the Greek general election Then we might see a different, more emollient Hollande, and a closer working relationship with Germany.
And, while the British media seems to be ignoring this dynamic, the New York Times seems up to speed on the implications of great events being caught up in domestic elections. It is puzzling, though, why more is not being made of this by British analysts, or am I missing something?
Richard North 25/05/2012
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