Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005 -- formerly China Confidential -- What's Really Happening in the WorldForeign Confidential ™
Monday, May 07, 2012
Cancelation of Israeli Elections Spurs Speculation on Iran Attack
The dramatic development is spurring speculation of a possible Israeli attack on Iran to end its menacing nuclear program.
We've seen this movie before, many Israelis must be thinking. Forty-five years ago, another unity government was formed during a lead-up to conflict that became known as the Waiting Period. The conflict, of course, was the Six-Day War. Click here to read "The Key Lesson of 1967 and the Looming Iran War."
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™Comment: On The Tragedy of the Arab-Israeli Conflict
Goldmann was right. Israel's peace pacts with Egypt and Jordan--and the Oslo Accords, also, arguably--proved his conception was essentially correct.
One wonders what Goldmann, who was born in 1895 and lived long enough (he died in 1982) to see the conflict shift from a nationalistic struggle between the Arabs and Jews of Palestine to a protracted fight between nation states--the "Arab-Israeli Conflict"--and back again to its Palestinian Arab-Zionist origins, would make of today's situation. Would he still regard the conflict as normal?
That the answer to this question is clearly debatable--64 years after Israel's founding--is truly tragic. At some stage, the Palestinian/Arab-Israeli conflict was somehow Islamized to include nuclear-arming, non-Arab Iran, a friend-turned-implacable foe, and NATO-belonging, non-Arab Turkey, a former ally that could also become an enemy. Instead of a conflict between nationalisms and nation states, it has to a frightening degree been transformed into a conflict between the Jewish national home, a country that was created to solve the specific problem of Jewish political homelessness, and a Nazi-like, clerical fascist menace--rightwing political Islam, or Islamism--that transcends national, ethnic and even theological (e.g. Sunni and Shiite) boundaries.
How this happened is a subject for serious study. How to put a stop to it--how to prevent the conflict from being transformed further into a horrific conflagration capable of engulfing an entire region and world powers--is a topic that cries out for discussion and analysis at the highest levels of policymaking and diplomacy.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™Expert Warns of Possible Anti-Semitic 'Firestorm'
Sobering Words of Wisdom from Steven Windmueller
The story of world Jewry covering the past six decades must be defined as one of achievement and recognition. American Jews have achieved extraordinary success and influence, and Israel, despite threats to its existence, has flourished as a democracy, and absorbed and resettled millions of Jews. Yet, as the world marks the 80th anniversary of the rise of Nazism, the status of Jews in the world seems to be seriously eroding.
During this period international politics was influenced by the powerful motif of memory. The images of past atrocities that tarnished the 20th century created a baseline for moral action. Over time, though, the power and integrity of this historical record has seemingly faded.
Earl Raab, a prominent social scientist and communal professional, once posited that two factors aligned together could create a serious threat to the Jewish people. An unstable economy and a growing set of tensions between Jerusalem and Washington would present, according to Raab, the “perfect firestorm” for potentially accelerating anti-Semitism and in creating a destabilizing environment for Jews in this nation and beyond. Both factors seem to be in play at this time.
The economic dislocation facing this nation and the international community has triggered political and social conflict. Similarly, tensions over policy options with respect to handling the Iranian nuclear crisis have emerged between the United States and Israel. The “storm” before us however seems even more complex and problematic than Raab’s initial scenario. Beyond the current economic crisis and the emerging underlying disagreements involving Israel and America are an array of parallel concerns and a growing set of uncertainties.
Click here to continue reading. The article should be essential reading for all those who are sincerely concerned about the future of the Jewish State and the Jewish people.
Disclosure: This reporter, a former managing editor of The Jewish Week, many years ago served as president of a New York-based communal organization, the Jewish Association for College Youth (it eventually merged with Hillel) that Dr. Windmueller headed (quite brilliantly) as executive director. Pro-Austerity Germany Mourns End of 'Merkozy Era'
Increasingly, Europeans will question the leap from a single market to a single currency. The EU did not have to, was arguably not ready for and should never have entertained creation of the euro. The notion of a fixed exchange rate across radically different economies in retrospect seems ridiculous.
Related: Neo-Nazis Gain as Austerity Gives Rise to Fascism
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™He's Back: Putin Sworn in Amid Protests
Vladimir Putin was sworn into office today for a third term as Russia's president--a six-year term--amid street protests and tightened security.Click here to read about the "glittering Kremlin ceremony."
Media reports that have played up the protests have largely overlooked Putin's popularity and the antidemocratic nature of much of the opposition, an alliance that includes both diehard Communists (admirers of Stalin) and avowed anti-Semites and racists on the far right.New Elections Likely in Greece
Voters Rebuke Major Parties, Politics of Austerity
Voters in Greece's parliamentary election pushed the country into more political uncertainty Sunday after no party came close to winning enough votes to form a government.
The results reflected widespread voter anger at the two major parties that have dominated Greek politics for decades and the EU-imposed austerity measures that have deepened the country's economic crisis.
As of this writing, the conservative New Democracy party won about 19% of the votes--the most of any single party. But the percentage falls far short of the number needed to form a government.
The Socialist PASOK party won less than 14% of the vote, after taking 44% just three years ago to take power. The leftist, anti-EU bailout Syriza party won about 17%,
New Democracy party leader Antonis Samaras now has three days to form a coalition government. He is expected to begin coalition talks later today. If he can't form a coalition, smaller parties get a chance.
The bottom line: new elections are likely.
The most alarming result was a gain for the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party. It is projected to win 7% of the vote, giving it 22 deputies.Sunday, May 06, 2012
Radical Right and Far Left Gain in Greece
French Voters Say So Long, Sarko!
France Elects First Socialist President Since 1995
Francois Hollande (l.) beat incumbent Nicolas Sarkozy in the French runoff presidential election Sunday, becoming France's first Socialist president of France since François Mitterrand left office in 1995.
With about half the vote counted, preliminary results released by the Interior Ministry shortly after the last polling stations closed at 8 PM local time showed Hollande had won about 51 percent of the vote and Sarkozy, of the center-right Union for a Popular Movement, had won about 49 percent.
Some observers contend that nothing much is likely to change in France. Au contraire. Foreign Confidential™ correspondents in France and Germany predict that Hollande's victory will constitute a formidable challenge to the German-dominated policy of extreme economic austerity in the euro zone, which is suffering from record unemployment and recession.
Though few Americans are likely to agree at this stage of their political process, the French elections could also boost President Obama's chances for reelection by further discrediting the idea that depressions and recessions are appropriate times to cut--or gut--government spending in order to address long-term fiscal problems. From Paris, France to Peoria, Illinois, voters are mainly focused on one word: jobs.
Copyright © 2012 Foreign Confidential™
Tuesday, 8 May 2012
That the ideology, or religion, of austerity has been dealt a death blow seems obvious to everyone except Germany's chancellor.
Chaos and shocking gains for neo-Nazis--what austerity has wrought in Greece. Click here for the story.
The outcome of the contest was a humiliating defeat for the brash and increasingly unpopular Sarkozy. Shortly after the polls closed, he called his challenger to concede defeat.
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