I think you're right. Look at this:
The UKIP leader is suggesting that local Tory Associations detach themselves from their party nationally and give a different party a big say locally in candidate choice.
Farage must be out of touch with reality, or totally ignorant of recent Tory history if he really believes that.
Up to the 1990s, local Conservative Associations were autonomous. Under Major, they tried to impose a central list of approved candidates. At the time, Tory Action challenged their authority to make it compulsory, and they admitted they hadn't any. But, local Association officers being what they are, they just went along with it. Finally it became a requirement.
In my experience, there's nothing more apolitical than a Conservative Association. They have the unquestioning mind-set of an NCO.
So any hope of large scale rebellion now, is pointless.
T
Farage is far too late, the con leadership has already completed this task.
Politics List
http://conservativehome.blogs.com/thetorydiary/2012/05/by-paul-goodmanfollow-paul-on-twitter-james-forsyths-spectator-interview-with-nigel-farage-which-tim-montgomerie-wrote-abou.html
Nigel Farage's grand strategy to destroy the Conservative Party
By P G Follow Paul on Twitter
James Forsyth's Spectator interview with Nigel Farage, which Tim Montgomerie wrote about on this site yesterday, is a sign of how far the UKIP leader has come - and how seriously Fleet Street now takes both him and it.
The party is sometimes nudging the Liberal Democrats into fourth place in the polls. It won 13% of the vote in this month's local elections, in not especially favourable electoral territory. Its vote share at general elections has risen from about 100,000 in 1997 to roughly a million two years ago. And it has of course polled in the mid-teens during the last two sets of Euro-elections. By accident rather than design I have found myself gradually being transformed into this site's UKIP correspondent - that's to say, studying the work of James Bethell, Ford and Goodwin,Kavanagh and Cowley and Lynch and Whitaker to explore why the party's support is growing. I agree with Tim that Mr Farage's suggestion of Conservative/UKIP candidates at the next election is a tease - or, perhaps, a clever piece of psych-ops designed to divide and confuse Tory activists, and set them chattering.
The UKIP leader is suggesting that local Tory Associations detach themselves from their party nationally and give a different party a big say locally in candidate choice. He knows well that this will only happen very rarely, if at all.
But having asked around and spoken to senior UKIP sources, I think that his real game is a variation on this theme. Let's examine how UKIP could make a major strategic breakthrough in British politics, given that -
First-past-the-post doesn't exactly help smaller parties, such as UKIP. The party has no winning record in by-elections and to date has been not much kop at them (though it did come second in Barnsley). Success in Euro-elections hasn't been followed by success at general elections - and there's no reason why this should change in 2014, even if the party comes top of the poll. I think the answer lies in the gathering prospect of an In/Out referendum - which the Labour Party is toying with and the People's Pledge is enthusiastically campaigning for. Such a referendum would deliver what Mr Farage was feinting at in his offer of joint candidates.
Namely, a Conservative split: in such a referendum, a big proportion of the party would vote No while the leadership (it must be assumed) would vote yes. A recent ComRes poll found that 51% of Tory supporters would vote to leave. My guess is that activists' views are similar.
The only referendum on Europe that has taken place in Britain had vast medium-term political consequences. The divisions in Labour which it exposed took radical form in scarcely more than five years - when part of Labour's pro-EU wing broke away to form the SDP.
Mr Farage surely envisages a similar process in the event of an In-Out referendum, whereby the centre-right of the Conservative Party and UKIP are eventually welded together to form a new right-wing force. A scenario by which an In-Out poll could be delivered is as follows:
UKIP continues to try to build up its credentials as "the Tory party you used to vote for". Note the stress Mr Farage placed in his Spectator interview on issues other than an EU referendum - such as grammar schools and wind turbines. The party gets a bigger vote share in next year's local elections than this year's. Remember, they will be county council polls held in blue rural heartland seats. Mr Farage will thus target disaffected Conservative voters. My guess is he will aim for around 20%. This paves the way for UKIP to top the polls in the Euro-elections, increasing the pressure on David Cameron for an In-Out poll and encouraging Labour to come out for one to split the Tories - as the possibility of UKIP hitting above 5% in the general election looms. There's a great deal more to be written about this - why Mr Cameron could come out for a renegotiation referendum; why a new right-wing party would be very short on appeal to "the centre"; why it's mistaken to build an electoral strategy solely on combating UKIP, and so on.
However, my theme for the day is trying to set out what UKIP's strategy must surely be. It's not a bad one at all for that party. Mr Farage has been around for a long time, is hardened by a hundred battles (external and internal), and will work to see it through.
And there was me thinking that the only person with a grand strategy to destroy the Conservative Party was David Cameron.
And there was me thinking that the only person with a grand strategy to destroy the Conservative Party was David Cameron.
I have read the UKIP manifesto and apart from stealing the idea of a EU Referendum on in/out from the BNP, all the rest of the things in there are just vague.
Nothing specific about immigration which every one I meet locally in my shire county, do not want any immigrants in Britain at all.
How does Nigel rate on that one?
Another rant I get from people is "I'm broke."
How would his UKIP party do anything about the economy?
It's alright fielding candidates like fodder on a farm, if they don't have clear policies about these rants from the grass roots 99% of the country, then they will not get many votes at a general election.
This is a vast can of worms. Stephan Shakespeare believes that the only way that Cameron can return to No 10 in 2015 is by cosying up to the Liberals to almost run a joint campaign to keep Labour at bay. In the meantime my membership has halved in the last four years and of those that remain, many are tremendously Euro-sceptic and frustrated by Cameron's approach to the EU. I maintain that to run effective campaigns, Associations need lots of members and to make money to tick over for elections and if we lose members and the ability to make money,which is not too shabby, our campaigning ability will be lost to the Party. This is a tremendous dilemma, because the members don't want to work with the Liberal Democrats. Too many of us have worked to defeat them for too many years, have not been impressed with their ideas of being in Government and don't want to take that route. Farage isn't daft, is he?
Hold on! If there is a "grand strategy" to destroy our Party it sure as hell isn't one devised by Mr. Farage.
LOOK CLOSER TO HOME...
Farage is but a mere symptom of what is ailing us and under the right circumstances could be the cure.
J W · 2 hours ago
An easy way to combat UKIP is to make the public more aware of what it's domestic policies are - for instance privatising healthcare.
'UKIP continues to try to build up its credentials as "the Tory party you used to vote for". '
Is this quite right? As far as I can recall, the Conservative party has never had a policy of withdrawal or an in-out referendum on the EU, has never had a policy of a flat tax, has never proposed a complete freeze on immigration, and since the 1970s, recent Conservative governments have been more successful than Labour in closing grammar schools.
Had UKIP been around in the 1980s they would be opposing Mrs Thatcher's government - and I sure she would not have tolerated them.
Please could we next have an article Paul on what impact Labour promising a referendum would have? Would it radically reduce the gains Cameron could make if he also made that promise?
You cannot destroy a political party from the outside, they are destroyed from the inside. If Conservative voters flock too UKIP they do not do it because of Farage's grand strategy, they do it because they no longer feel comfortable with the Conservative Party.
The leadership of all political parties make the same mistake, they take their supporters and voters for granted, believing they will always support them for fear of worse. That works upto a point, the point being when they say, 'Well it couldn't be any worse for me (or the country) if the other lot were in, I might just try somebody else'
If Conservative voters decide to 'dabble' with UKIP or even go the whole hog, it won't be out of committment it will be out of despair.
The problems with your proposed strategy are that firstly Mr. Cameron has no political capital for a referendum. His 3 line whip on the petition and his back-tracking on his cast iron guarantee (it was not conditional, if you believe so, please read it, it was unconditional) has caused those predisposed to a referendum to lose any faith in him over this matter. Secondly, everybody is aware that it is impossible to renegotiate opt-outs. The treaties simply do not allow for these to happen. Once we are signed up to them, there is no mechanism for them. The treaties were designed in this manner for "ever closer union". If the Conservative Party offered these, they would be laughed out of office.
How do you turn 1 million UKIP voters into 1 million Tory Party activists, working hard for a conservative general election victory?
"The party is sometimes nudging the Liberal Democrats into fourth place in the polls"
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Not quite accurate. We are consistently ahead of the LibDems in the YouGov daily tracker; the last two Survation Polls had us ahead as well. Survation don't ask a loaded first question (would you vote Labour, CON or LibDem) before asking about 'others' if the answer is 'none.'
But the overall poll, 9% or thereabouts, is misleading. In the crucial demographics, particularly the 60+ group which is the largest and most likely to vote, we are consistently polling much higher - between 13 - 17%. 13% is the level we got in the Locals. A vote of that magnitude at a GE (or even high single-figures) will cause maximum damage under FPTP, when a thousand votes is often the difference between the winner and the 2nd place.
Nice of you to highlight that UKIP is no longer a single-issue party. We have a full range of policies, most of which are recognisably conservative and which we would be able to implement as we wouldn't be constrained by the EU.
Nigel Farage is far from unsubtle, but I never saw him as a Machiavelli. I wonder if Paul Goodman's exploration of this "divide and rule" theme isn't another manifestation of Tory angst over their Party's very evident loss of direction and long-term impotence re the EU? From where I am, Farage's Party simply represents a clear and very desirable alternative not simply on the EU but other key issues as well; I suggest most supporters of UKIP feel the same. They/we have no interest in destroying the Conservative Party as such - we just have no interest in the Conservative Party, since that Party has failed the UK lamentably, massively and consistently over the EU. The only Tory leader who faced down the EU at all was Thatcher, and she compromised an awful lot. Cameron, well, say no more... Nigel Farage is not a "symptom", a Machiavelli, a mole or whatever: he leads a Party that has answers which prove more and more popular - to the dismay and detriment of the Conservative Party, clearly.
Farage has taken a leaf out of the Conservative book. He is selling things that are close to Conservative hearts (nation state, grammar schools etc) albeit emotionally.
UKIP has also called for a five-year moratorium on immigration. (Perhaps Nigel will say he's more a Tory' than Dave, umm? .... groan!): It is opposed to gay marriage and wind turbines and their London candidates have been very vocal against Big State initiatives like ID cards and road pricing.
They are remarkably in tune with the Conservative grass roots. Millions voted Conservative in the hope it would be different to Labour but are getting more of the same. When trust goes - voters desert - look at John Major after 1992, and given they will get Labour-PC policies anyway, little will be lost through protest voting.
Destroy - The ' Conservative ' Party ?
There's a paradox here, and a concept which Conservative-thinking people should come-to-terms with very quickly..
What we have now is ' Cameron's Party ' - not the Conservative Party. And in order to resuscitate and preserve Conservatism, it is first necessary to sunder Cameron's Party.
However, I do understand how hard it is for corn-fed Conservatives to contemplate anything other than strict adherence to the party-line, and blind loyalty to the leadership. I am sure the Titanic's senior officers were as united behind their ship's Captain.
So I am heartened to see decent, respected, Conservative-thinkers, commentators and journalists accepting that, maybe the future of Britain and Conservatism is far too important to be left just in the hands of Cameron and Osborne.
I am right behind Mr. Farage - hence why I joined my first party (UKIP) the other week.
The issue is, that this isn't just about the European Union anymore, it is much bigger. I want a party which will restore our grammar schools, a party which will not involve itself in liberal interventionalist wars, a party which will not abuse the monetary system and perhaps even look at a new gold standard, a party which when it says it will cut immigration it will do so, a party which looks on business and aims to help business... and many many more.
I mean, just look at the calibre of the people running both parties. In UKIP you have former private sector workers such as Lord Pearson, Nigel Farage, Godfrey Bloom, Roger Helmer, Lord Monckton, Stuart Wheeler and countless others .... in the Conservative Party however you're led by essentially teenagers who have been too heavily involved in politics all their lives.
So yes, like Peter Hitchens - I do want to destroy the Conservative Party because like the EU itself it is beyond reform.
When Cameron not only goes over the heads of Conservative associations to impose his own A-listers, but then insults those associations using terms like Turnip Taliban for having the audacity to want to select their own choice of parliamentary candidate in their own constituency, it's hardly surprising that they feel unrepresented by the party leadership.
The simple fact is that Nigel Farage is closer to the hearts and minds of Conservative associations than David Cameron is, and as long as Cameron is leader the drift to UKIP will continue. At some point when critical mass is achieved, that drift could become a full bore tide. The 2014 Euro election could be that point.
"Namely, a Conservative split: in such a referendum, a big proportion of the party would vote No while the leadership (it must be assumed) would vote yes." The phrase -"Lions, led by Donkeys", springs to mind.
Dave isn't suited to being a PM, he is a PR man, they never make good leaders. he should recognise he hasn't got it and leave. He isn't as big a failure as Brown but then it would be difficult to find someone who is. But he isn't a Blair (a real PR man), Major (honest and a trier), Thatcher (knew what she wanted and tried to do it). When Dave is under stress he gets rude and objectionable, PMQs show him as out of touch, fortunately only anoraks watch it. Also he should take George with him as he is not a strategist. He couldn't beat a mobile throwing incompetent.
For those of you rushing to join UKIP.
Remember that we are Conservatives. Ok, Cameron's Party do not want us. But Conservatism, and the name, must be kept alive.
UKIP alone can't save Britain from what we are about to receive. That can only be done by good people coming together in the national interest.
Therefore Conservatives, obviously not as part of the present, tainted structure, need to lend their name and the credibility to UKIP in order to secure a wider appeal.
.
LOL! Cameron has created a party that Conservatives find it hard to vote for. A Conservative party with genuine Conservative policies would put UKIP out of business.
I am sure that Paul is only being lazy when he writes of a "new right-wing force"; as if there was ever anything inherently right wing about wanting self government and democracy. As I have observed here before, that used to be the province of left wing independence groups in the Empire/Commonwealth!
I do agree with his observation about "it's mistaken to build an electoral strategy solely on combating UKIP". A political party should start by considering what are its values and what are its high level objectives. Then work out policy and see where it takes you.
Of course any organisation has to pay attention to timing and priorities and the realities of its sphere of operations. Some policies held dear may have to be down played or set aside but surely not if they represent the core beliefs.
Where would UKIP be if we gave up on our core beliefs in democracy, self government and free markets. We would be nothing more than a Conservative Party clone and deserve to be wiped out. But the same question can be asked of the Conservative Party - what are its core beliefs, or has it long since given up on such matters and now pays attention only to gaining office.
In commerce, the closer different products and manufacturers become, the more they compete on appearance - soap powders, dish washer tablets, popular motor cars, etc. So it has become with the three old Westminster parties. This is not an insult, it is a fair observation but it should not be so among political parties.
The dangers to the Conservative Party (and others) from UKIP is plain enough. The scenario discussed sounds very much like what I hear around the conferences at UKIP. We are taking regular recruits from current or past councillors and association officers around the country. We are regularly told, without solicitation, by current Conservative councillors and association officers, that they vote UKIP, although usually not at local elections - yet!
I have myself been asked for leaflets by the aforementioned, so they might circulate them among their friends!
Make no mistake, we are at the turning point for the Conservative Party, and perhaps for the Westminster village, that we should have visited at the time of Maastricht. I believe that Treaty did more to change the direction of politics even that the dismissal of Mrs Thatcher did inside the Conservative Party.
So what reaction, if any, can we expect from the PM.
Short term (this week) he will again claim to have stood up for Britain and against those johnny foreigners in Strasburg, as he also claimed last December. Of course he will in fact deliver the EU business.
Medium term (June) he will personally vote for gay marriage and all the urgent proposals in the Queen's speech.
Longer term (2014) his party will come second or third in the Euro elections and he will take no notice. Report Reply
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ross j warren · 1 hour ago
The only toying Labour is doing with the referendum is toying with peoples minds. They are as unlikely as Cam to see it through. Report Reply
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anthony.scholefield · 1 hour ago
It was Robert Kilroy-Silk who stated several years ago that the aim Of UKIP should be to destroy the Tory party.. The existence of a fake-conservative party is always a barrier to true conservatism.
However,having known Nigel Farage for almost twenty years ,he is likely to be still sitting on the UKIP?Tory fence
Good, succinct piece by Daniel above, well done , --- my thoughts more or less exactly. Like him I finished supporting the CONservative party, after decades, and joined UKIP a few months ago. I will become a local activist in 18 months after other commitments diminish and yes, like Peter Hitchins I believe that the Cameron Party is harmful to our country and has to be finished off, as its too far gone , towards the left and general confusion, to be rescued. A new party is needed from the genuinely conservative thinking elements of the Cameroon party plus other patriots from UKIP as well as a few from the other main parties, who are also fed up with the continued destruction of this country and our British values. It's about far more than a referendum , although that's crucial, as it also includes immigration issues , restoring quality and authenticity in education, respect for our native religion Christianity, alongside respect for all religions, respecting, rewarding and rebuilding our armed services, rebuilding our national economy and over arching everything releasing the pent up sense of national pride that still exists, but is frustrated, within the hearts of all classes except the fashionable, metropolitan elite, typified by Cameron .
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