Not Belgium Monday 7 May 2012  We are gently reminded that Greece is not Belgium, and that electoral law does not permit a situation where no government is formed. The parties have about two weeks to form a new government and, if they do not, there will be new elections, probably by the end of June.The split as it stands is 149 seats on the pro-bailout side (Conservatives 108+ Socialists 41 seats) while the anti-bailout side can muster 151 (Radicals 52 seats + Nationalists 33 + Communists 26 + neo-Nazis 21 + Leftists 19). An exceedingly unstable anti-bailout coalition is the best that can happen. The turnout here, incidentally, was 65.8 percent – only marginally better than in the last UK general election. Then, the votes of 19 percent of the electorate are disallowed, as the parties they voted for do not get or exceed the three-percent threshold for acquiring a parliamentary seat. There is also the first place bonus of 50 seats, which apparently gives New Democracy (ND) 108 seats, instead of the 58 which it should get on its straight percentage of the vote, - although this says there is a threshold requirement of 39 percent – which ND did not meet. However, the BBC says that ND gets 108 seats and, as we all know, the BBC is never wrong. That just leaves me confused – which is quite an appropriate state, given the current situation. If I understood what was going on, then I would be even more misinformed than I already am. COMMENT: "TALE OF TWO ELECTIONS" THREAD Richard North 07/05/2012 |
The Achilles heel Monday 7 May 2012  For sure, French presidential have slightly more glitz than British locals, but even then, our last general election only attracted a turnout of 65.1 percent – with a clear presidential-style choice between Brown and Cameron. Turnout at general elections has been steadlily declining since 1950, but took a decisive lurch downwards after 1992, reaching its nadir in 2001 and recovering five points since then. Only twice in seventy years has turnout exceeded the current French level. The decision as to whether to vote is the Achilles heel of our democratic system, which puts such great emphasis on the legitimacy acquired through the ballot box. When the lead party in the 2010 election – the Conservatives – took only 36.1 percent of the votes cast, giving it 23.5 percent of the popular vote, then the system is in trouble. And when, as is the case in the locals, the total vote for the two lead parties only just exceeds 20 percent, there is indeed a crisis. One senses though - and it takes no great perception to do so – that we are in la-la land here. The politicians really can't deal with this, so they are ignoring it. The problem is – and it really is a problem – that you cannot neglect the fundamental legitimacy of a system. The consent that comes with that legitimacy is not a theoretical concept. Intangible it may be, but it is real. If it is absent, we become ungovernable. Thus, unless the politicians and the media claque address this issue, it will come back and bite them. And they will have only themselves to blame. COMMENT: "POLITICAL SYSTEM ON TRIAL" THREAD Richard North 07/05/2012 |
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