Eurocrash: everything clear as mud Thursday 5 July 2012  Watching the Kremlin was easier – at least the bigwigs occasionally lined up on Lenin's tomb, so you knew who was in and who was out. EU politics is a little harder to read. A useful sign, though, was a meeting yesterday between Merkel and Monti in Rome where, according to Handelsblatt, it was sweetness and light - or "unison and harmony" as the paper put it – all with cicadas chirping outside the Villa Madama and a light summer breeze blowing. In normal circumstances, it would have been just another routine meeting, but the pair made a great show of agreement on the "supposed sticking points", with both evoking a "spirit" of the euro crisis. Both emphasised the unanimity of the decisions made at the European Council and pledged to be "determined to overcome the difficulties together". Merkel laughed about her image as "Iron Chancellor" Angela, she praised Monti's reform efforts and warmly emphasised the close co-operation of the two founder members of the Union and the major economies. Returning the bonhomie, Monti declared: "The Chancellor and I are working together very well". It was "simply a pleasure to be able to receive the Chancellor again". As to the Council: "It was a step towards a Europe that we want as Italians". Also, he says, "eurobonds are no longer taboo." The point, of course, is that if they can fake it now, they could just as easily have faked it last week – or vice versa. No analysis of EU politics is ever complete without taking account of the theatre. Elsewhere, sweetness and light are in shorter supply – or perhaps the theatrical skills are not as well tuned. There is talk of an alliance between Berlin, Netherlands and Finland, nicknamed the "North axis of austerity". The "tiddlers" oppose letting the European bailout fund buy government bonds on secondary markets. Here, we can't rule out the possibility that Merkel is playing to her own domestic audiences. A few days ago, we were hearing from Spiegel and other sources that Horst Seehofer, CSU leader, Bavarian governor and Merkel's coalition partner, had turned on the chancellor, sharply criticising the outcome of the European Council. He was threatening to pull down the coalition if there were any more concessions to ailing euro members. Seehofer also criticised Schäuble's call for a referendum on a new constitution that could relinquish national powers to Brussels. "We don't want a different constitution", he says. Seehofer adds that he wouldn't accept the transfer of major powers to a "European monster state". He threatens to turn the next general election and the Bavarian regional election, both scheduled for 2013, into a vote on Europe. "We will put this question to the people", he says. Electorally, though, this does not seem to doing Merkel any harm. Support for her governing coalition has risen to 36 percent, from 34 percent the week before the European Council. However, Manfred Guellner, head of the polling firm Forsa explained this response: "Just like during all times of crisis, people rally around the government", he said. "Even though people don't understand individual actions, they support Merkel anyway". So, as is usual with this long-drawn out affair, everything is clear as mud. But August is less than a month away. The Eurocrats and the bankers want their holidays and no one is too anxious to rock the boat. Crises there are to come, but nobody wants one just yet. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 05/07/2012 |
Germans do not favour political union Wednesday 4 July 2012 A survey published by the magazine Stern, with details online via here, has 74 percent of the 1,004 Germans polled against the idea of a United States of Europe. Only 22 percent support the idea of abandoning the nation state. The poll, carried out by the Forsa organisation, also has 63 percent against the idea of an elected EU president, with only 33 percent in favour, and 59 percent oppose the transfer of further financial powers from the Bundesbank to EU institutions. Only 36 percent are in favour. As to eurobonds, these also got a huge thumbs-down, with 73 percent against, as opposed to a mere 17 percent supporting the idea. Yet, despite all this, 54 percent of Germans still think that introducing the euro was the right thing to do. And, looking to the future, 69 percent of those polled agreed that there should be a referendum of there is any further transfer of sovereignty to Brussels. This conveys a much stronger message than the a poll published this weekend by Welt am Sonntag. That had 43 percent of respondents supporting a United States of Europe, with 51 percent speaking out against further political and economic integration. Similar proportions were found in relation to giving Brussels more financial powers – with 43 percent for and 52 percent against. The Welt survey might have made a referendum look winnable to Merkel, and may have contributed to her new determination to press ahead with a treaty. If that was the case, this current poll is a setback, perhaps indicating a hardening of opinion against the project. Meanwhile, back in the UK, the europhile New Statesman asserts that the failure of politicians in the UK on all sides to make the "positive case for Europe" is one of the reasons why the debate about a referendum has now reached fever pitch. An "in/out" referendum, it claims, can be won, but "politicians who favour remaining in and pushing back the UKIP tide must start to make the positive case". However, this may be a tad optimistic, to put it mildly. And if sentiment is hardening in Germany, where support for "Europe" is traditionally strong, it seems unlikely that the British public will soften its views. The europhiles are in for a harder fight than they are letting on. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 04/07/2012 |
Posts
