Is Ukip a threat to Tories or is this a new false dawn?
The UK Independence Party is looking increasingly like it could hurt David Cameron and the Conservatives as support for the Eurosceptic party grows.
9:00PM BST 22 Sep 2012
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Six years ago, David Cameron dismissed the UK Independence Party as a bunch of “fruitcakes, loonies and closet racists”. Now, the Eurosceptic party is creating a headache for the Prime Minister.
Gathered in Birmingham this weekend for the party’s annual conference, Ukip’s leaders were in ebullient mood. Some opinion polls suggest Ukip’s support has roughly doubled in the past year. One recent survey stated the party had captured 12 per cent of the vote.
Ukip also picked up 14 per cent of the vote in last summer’s local elections and there is even speculation that Nigel Farage, Ukip’s chipper leader, may be able to draw away enough Tory supporters to rob Mr Cameron of a second term in Downing Street.
Alexandra Swann, 23, speaking at the UKIP party conference (Andrew Fox)
But just how credible is this threat? Ukip may have three peers and 12 members in the European parliament, but the party has never won a seat in the House of Commons.
At the last count, the party’s membership numbered just over 17,000. There are villages with larger populations.
Some experts doubt the recent success in the polls. Those conducted over the internet have Ukip at between 7 and 9 per cent.
However, those compiled by telephone interviews — often judged more credible — rank Ukip at between 3 and 5 per cent.
A few councillors, peers and donors may have defected from the Tories — but none of them were household names.
Mr Farage, popular for his trenchant rhetoric on television and the radio, is widely seen as the party’s greatest — and by some its only — asset.
Crucially, the party remains dogged by its reputation for being an unprofessional, single-issue group, plagued by racism and bitter infighting. One wit once dubbed the party “the provisional wing of the Rotary Club”.
So is Ukip finally becoming a credible force in British politics and what should Mr Cameron do about it?
“If there were an election tomorrow, Ukip would definitely hurt the Conservatives,” said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University. “Whichever poll you look at, Ukip are picking up disgruntled Tory voters.
“But this is not about Mr Cameron’s stance on Europe, it’s more to do with the Government losing credibility on the economy. The perception is that the Prime Minister is running an 'omnishambles’ government and George Osborne’s Budget was followed by a series of U-turns.
“Rather than becoming more Eurosceptic, the Conservatives’ best chance of winning these people back is to regain their reputation for economic competence and credible government.”
Those who have defected to Ukip disagree. They say that the Conservatives in coalition have failed to drive through a Tory agenda.
“David Cameron should be worried,” said Jonathan Bullock, 48, a former Conservative parliamentary candidate and party councillor in Kettering, Northants, who defected to Ukip last week. “A lot of Tories I know are talking of making the same move.
“Two things have really changed. Ukip has now proved themselves to be a respectable party and there is a lot of disillusionment with the Conservatives.
“Tory supporters are disgusted that their party can boost spending on overseas aid while there are deep cuts to the military and the police. Then there’s the HS2 rail project — a complete waste of money which will do a lot of damage in my part of the world.”
Ukip is particularly proud of its recruitment of younger members. Young Independents, the party’s under-35s group, now has 700 members — a threefold increase in just over two years. To put this into context, Conservative Future and Young Labour both have around 20,000 members.
Alexandra Swann, a former deputy chairman of Conservative Future, defected to Ukip six months ago.
“I believe the Conservative Party under David Cameron has lost its soul,” said Swann, 24. “I believe and always have believed in low taxes, small state and pro-business policies.
“That’s just not what I see coming out of the Cameron Conservatives.
“Ukip is no longer a single- issue party. We want to bring back grammar schools, get rid of death taxes and abolish employers’ National Insurance contributions.
“There are real libertarian policies there — and a genuine plan for the future.”
The daily instalments of the eurozone debt crisis may attract young people to Ukip, but it is this broader range of free-market policies that has kept the new intake interested, Miss Swann said.
“Ukip is a radical party and young people tend to embrace radical policies,” says Harry Aldridge, chairman of Young Independents.
He says mainstream parties often treat people in their 20s as “leaflet fodder”. With Ukip, they get to mix with their party’s high command. Mr Aldridge also argues that Ukip has made more headway with social networking than other parties.
But trying to portray Ukip’s annual conference at Birmingham Town Hall as a magnet for the young looks ambitious.
When a Ukip official was asked to arrange a photo of delegates, he stressed that “young people” should be placed in the front row. Just four could be found.
On Friday, speeches by Alexandra Swann, 24, a former deputy chairman of Conservative Future, and by Sanya-Jeet Thandi, 19, received some of the loudest applause from delegates.
Miss Swann thanked the party for the supportive welcome she had received since defecting from the Conservative Party earlier this year.
“These months in Ukip have been some of the most exhilarating and inspiring months of my life and I’m incredibly grateful for the support I received,” she said.
“The Conservatives do not value their younger members. They patronise them, they use them as leaflet fodder. They discard their ideas and they treat them as a liability that needs to be kept very far away from the media.
“So many young voters feel increasingly let down by the politics of the three main parties,” she added.
On Saturday the conference was addressed by the Rev Peter Mullen, former chaplain to the London Stock Exchange, who described the state education system as a “sham” and a “fraud”, arguing that teaching standards were so poor that the system amounted to “child abuse”.
“The teachers themselves are the victims of two generations of institutionalised ignorance fortified by socialist ideology and personal self-seeking,” he said.
In his closing words to the conference, Mr Farage said: “I think we have been winners this weekend. This conference has been our most successful, our most unified, our most forceful. We are not being treated as a joke any more.”
Ukip has known plenty of false dawns in its 19-year history, but one thing is different this time. In previous years, voters disaffected with the two main political parties have voted Liberal Democrat.
With Nick Clegg’s party now in the Government, Ukip have by default become the only major protest vote in town for many disaffected Tory supporters.
This change to the political landscape gives Mr Farage and his party new opportunities.
“Ukip’s performance is something for the Conservatives to watch — but not obsess about,” said Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos MORI, the polling organisation.
“Europe is an issue for the electorate, but fears about the economy and unemployment are their chief concerns at the moment. That should be their priority.”
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