Thursday, 4 October 2012

Tension between Turkey and Syria was already high. There are allegations that the crew of the recconnaisance plane actually survived the crash, were interrogated by the Syrians and then were made to die 'of natural causes' on a Russian recommendation. 

Al-Arabia television: Turkish pilots killed by Syria (Sep 29, 2012)
http://www.hurriyet.com.tr/planet/21585392.asp

Experts interviewed in television studios are not in favour of liberating Damascus but they see a Turkish intervention as necessary. There have two major concerns: 
1- If Assad is overthrown, then what would happen to Syria's stockpile of poison gas? How can Turkey prevent the PKK from taking posession of WMD?
2- How can Turkey prevent a de facto formation of a Kurdish zone extending to the Mediterranean?

The Turkish army fired back on the Syrians before, about ten days ago, but that exchange was not made public. This time civilians were killed and the response was public and more robust. 

The artillery fire was delivered with T-155 guns which are very accurate and the intended targets were hit. The fire returned was three times as intense. It is reported that Syrian soldiers were killed in a garrison near the border, avenging the blood of the F-4 crew. The border is being reinforced by more guns and tanks. 

The government has asked for parliament to authorise military intervention in response to imminent threat from Syria. 

"The negative effect of the crisis unfolding in Syria on regional stability and security, particularly on our national security, is ever more evident. As of 20 September 2012, the military campaign of the armed forces of the Syrian Arab Republic incorporated aggression against even the soil of our own country and did not cease in spite of numerous warnings and diplomatic contacts. Aggression directed against our country's territories is imminent. 

This situation poses a serious threat and risk to our national security. Therefore there is a need to take precaution and act in a timely and speedy manner against additional risks and threats that may be directed against our country. In these circumstances, I request permission to deploy the Turkish Armed Forces in foreign countries in operations, the limits, objectives, scope and timing of which is to be determined and decided by the government, for a period of one year, in accordance with the constitution."

http://www.sabah.com.tr/Gundem/2012/10/04/tbmm-genel-kurulu-tezkere-icin-toplandi (in Turkish)

The Kurdish MPs and the main opposition party (Republican People's party) which is led by a pair of Kurds, are rejecting the authorisation out of hand. The Nationalist Movement Party, after some hesitation, seems to be in favour. The government will have its authorisation easily.