Tuesday, 13 November 2012


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Ave Angela, morituri te salutant
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Economic realities push Europe closer to a Greek decision
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Beyond posturing, Germany knows that the UK is needed in the EU
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Daily Press Summary

Eurozone and IMF remain at odds over Greek debt sustainability;
Two year extension of Greek bailout will cost €32.6bn
Eurozone finance ministers last night delayed an agreement on releasing the next tranche of Greek bailout funds until a meeting on 20 November, due to an on-going, disagreement between the IMF and the eurozone over how fast Greece should reduce its debt level. The IMF is still keen to see a target of 120% debt to GDP in 2020, while the eurozone wants this restriction eased. The IMF also pushed for another reduction in Greek debt. However, eurozone leaders insisted they would not contemplate writing down their official loans to Greece but were considering other options.


The sides did agree on a two-year extension to the Greek bailout which a draft Troika report suggested would cost €32.6bn up to 2016, although around €20bn of this would have been needed even without the extension. At least €4bn will come from further Greek austerity. It’s not clear how the rest would be funded, however, Austrian Finance Minister Maria Fekter said, “I can’t imagine that [states] want to go back to their taxpayers…We have to be more creative.”

Meanwhile, Greece will struggle to avoid defaulting on a €5bn repayment of short term debt due later this week, after the ECB refused to raise the ceiling on short term Greek debt accepted as collateral for its lending. The WSJ reports that spare cash in the Greek bank recapitalisation fund could be used to pay off the maturing debt. Separately, Dow Jones reports that the Bundestag may vote on any new Greek aid deal next week.
Open Europe research
 Eurogroup statement Kathimerini Süddeutsche FAZ FAZ 2 FTD DWN Bild Welt Welt 2 Repubblica La Stampa Le Monde FT WSJ Telegraph European Voice Euractiv BBC Süddeutsche SpiegelEUobserver FT 3 FT Brussels Blog FT 2 CityAM WSJ 2 FT: Sri-Kumar Dow Jones 

Swedish Finance Minister: We have to keep the door open to EU treaty changes to achieve a fair banking unionDN reports that Swedish Finance Minister Anders Borg has said that current banking Union plans are “unacceptable” and that “we have to keep the door open for technical treaty changes” in order to ensure that non-eurozone countries have a vote in the supervision structure and that the ECB governing council does not have the final say over supervision matters.
DN

Reuters reports that the EU’s Alternative Investment Fund Managers Directive – expected to be finalised within weeks – risks forcing smaller hedge fund managers out of the EU or out of business altogether, thereby concentrating risk in fewer hands. Open Europe Director Mats Persson is quoted as saying that "The AIFMD will boost transparency, which is good...but I cannot see how a lot of these other aspects are going to make the market safer at all.”Reuters Open Europe research: AIFMD 

Anti-austerity protests in Lisbon on day of Merkel’s visit;
Diário Económico: Portugal will miss 2012 deficit target
Hundreds of protesters took to the streets in Lisbon yesterday during German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s visit to Portugal. In a joint press conference with Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho, Merkel insisted that “painful reforms” are the only way out of the crisis. Open Europe’s blog post looking at how the Portuguese press was trailing Merkel’s visit to Lisbon featured on the Guardian’s live blog. 


Meanwhile, Portuguese business daily Diário Económico reports that the Portuguese government is this week going to tell the EU/IMF/ECB Troika that it will miss the EU-mandated deficit target of 5% of GDP for this year. Open Europe’s Raoul Ruparel is quoted by the Telegraph as saying that, despite eurozone leaders stating the opposite, “Portugal has similar structural flaws and the same overvalued currency [as Greece].” 

Open Europe blog Guardian: Live blog Telegraph EUobserver RTP Público El País FT City AM FAZSüddeutsche Welt Spiegel Le Monde Jornal de Negócios Diário Económico AFP 

A talk by Open Europe Director Mats Persson at Reykjavik University on the economic and political risks of further eurozone integration was covered by Icelandic daily Morgunbladid while Mats was interviewed on Icelandic radio RUV.
RUV

In an interview with Le Figaro, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti says, “I know that, in France, a fairly large share of public opinion would not regret [Britain distancing itself from Europe]. But this would be a great pity for the rest of Europe. Britons’ contribution is important because they have a culture of [free] market, competition, competitiveness that we often lack.” 
Le Figaro: Monti 

Spanish Economy Minister Luis de Guindos told MEPs yesterday that the Spanish government estimates the real capital needs of Spanish banks to be “slightly below €40bn”. The first tranche of Spain’s bank bailout is to be paid out in early December, El Economista reports. 
Expansión Cinco Días El Economista El Mundo FT WSJ FT: Editorial WSJ: Bohrer 

According to a new BVA poll, 55% of French have “a bad opinion” of French President François Hollande – up from 37% when he was elected in May.Le Monde Libération L’Express Le Monde: Leparmentier 

The EU Commission has suspended its controversial carbon levy on flights to and from non-EU countries for one year in order to try to pursue a global agreement on reducing emissions via the International Civil Aviation Organisation. 
FT CityAM WSJ IHT Guardian EUobserver BBC 

MEPs on the Environmental, Internal Market and Agriculture committees will today interview Tonio Borg, the Maltese designate for the post of EU Commissioner for Health and Consumer Protection.European Parliament Times of Malta Malta Today The Parliament 

A report by EU Energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger on progress towards an internal market for gas and electricity is expected to criticise France and Poland in particular.FTD Spiegel

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