Israel Is Being Drawn Into The Syrian Conflict
Analysis
An Israeli soldier overlooks a tank being transported in Alonei Habashan in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights , on November 11, 2012. Israeli tanks fired on Syrian targets today in response to a second day of mortar shells fired from Syria into Israel . (JALAA MA R EY/AFP/Getty Images)
November 12, 2012
| Security
| Middle East and North Africa
Summary
SITUATION R EPO R T
Mortar shells fired into the Golan Heights from Syria over the last 24 hours led Israel to attack targets in Syria for the first time since 1973 and risk drawing Israel into the Syrian civil war. The attacks coincide with Syrian opposition groups agreeing over the weekend to form a new coalition. These developments probably will not affect the Syrian conflict in the short term but have the potential of creating pressure on the Assad regime to hasten its fall.
Israeli tanks fired into Syria today at the source of a second mortar shell that fell into the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights in two days. Israel fired a warning shot in response to the earlier Syrian shell and warned that Syria attacks into Israeli territory “will not be tolerated and will be responded to with severity.” Israel also responded to the attacks by filing complaints with UN peacekeepers deployed to the Golan Heights .
Background
The attacks into Israel appeared to stem from the entry into the Golan Heights demilitarized zone of three Syrian tanks. The tanks probably entered the area to engage the Syrian rebels. Israeli officials stated that they did not think the fire into Israel was intentional.
Israel filed a complaint with the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNFDOF), a peacekeeping force that has been deployed to the disputed Golan Heights area since 1974. UNDOF officers reportedly have demanded that Syrian forces withdraw from the UNDOF zone. Click HERE to view a UN map of the Golan Heights DMZ.
Syria’s fractious opposition groups agreed during a week-conference in Qatar that ended last night to unite under a new coalition to oppose the regime of Syrian President Assad. The new Syrian opposition coalition will be known as the National Coalition for Opposition Forces and the Syrian R evolution.
The Syrian opposition was under pressure by the United States , Qatar , and Saudi Arabia to resolve their differences. The Syrian National Council (SNC), previously regarded as the main Syrian opposition group, resisted the new group, but apparently relented due to international pressure. The SNC agreed to participate in the new group after many hours of difficult negotiations. Its role in the new group has not yet been announced.
Islamic cleric Maath al-Khatib was elected president of the new coalition. Leading opposition figures R iad Seif and Suheir Atassi were elected vice presidents. Khatib is a moderate former Imam of a Damascus mosque who had been imprisoned for criticizing the Assad regime before he left Syria this year.
Analysis
Both Syria and Israel want to avoid an Israeli role in the Syrian conflict, which would only serve to radicalize the Syrian opposition. Syrian forces will thus probably soon withdraw from the Golan Heights DMZ to prevent any further Israeli military action against Syria . If further attacks from Syria occur, Israel will probably escalate its response, possibly using airstrikes.
The new Syrian opposition coalition is a promising development brought about due to intense U.S. and Saudi pressure on Syria ’s feuding opposition groups to unite. Maintaining this coalition will be difficult because of the intensity of the differences between the various groups and the challenge of uniting rebels group fighting in Syria under a single command structure. The coalition will face more serious challenges as it tries to agree on what a post-Assad government will look like and who will lead it. Serious regional rivalries – especially concerning the Syrian Kurds who want autonomy – will be difficult to resolve.
If tensions between Israel and Syria continue to grow and the new opposition coalition holds together, substantially more pressure might be brought against the Assad regime that could hasten its downfall. In the short term, these factors probably will have little effect on the status quo.
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