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the Middle East could be coming to Europe via the Western Balkans.  Is this email not displaying correctly? View it in your browser. For the full article text, please visit: http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-western-balkans-a-threat-to-the-eu-4749/ The Western Balkans: a Threat to the EU? Anis Bajrektarevic - Nov. 12th, 2012 Geopoliticalmonitor.com Simmering geopolitical environments in Middle East (ME), characterised by violence and conflicts have posed a challenge as well as a threat to the security, peace and stability of Western Balkan Region (WBR). The EU woke up to a surprise when a wave of instability swept across ME and authoritarian governments, considered strong and stable thus far, fell like a pack of cards (Arab Spring). “The Middle East is the most important geography which can directly affect the EU’s well-being in economic and security aspects. Weak governance, if not absolute corruption, the absence of rule of law and justice, nepotism and non-adherence to the democratic processes were the main collapse-syndromes that many see as possible recurring phenomenon in Western Balkan if these were allowed to pass by in the ME without inferring clues to achieve peace and prosperity in WBR. WBR, the periphery of Europe, or as some call it ‘the periphery of the periphery,’ is vital ground that Europe cannot remain oblivious about. Though it poses no military threat of any significant magnitude, it has the potential to become a conduit for various threats and challenges emanating from the Middle East and Sahel-Sahara Region. These threats are as follows:   Illegal Immigrant Traffic Involves the act of recruiting, transporting, transferring, harbouring or receiving a person using force, coercion or other means, for the ultimate purpose of exploitation. Every year, thousands of men, women and children fall into the hands of traffickers, in their own countries and abroad. Every country in the world is affected by trafficking, whether as a country of origin, transit or a destination for victims [1]. In the wake of visa liberalisation for the WBR by the EU, immigrants have tended to leave the poorer areas of the WBR in order to seek better living conditions within the EU and richer WBR states. This trend is historic and perhaps manageable by the WBR or at least not as risky as the inflow of Asians and Africans who beat the Border Check Points (BCP) ability to interdict illegal immigrants. Such illegal immigrants may be criminals, potential terrorists or arms and drug smugglers as no record of their credentials is available as compared to those falling in the category of regular immigrants. The WBR would certainly be impacted, as the statistics prove, as an increasing number of them are appearing on Greece-Turkish, Romania-Serbian and Serbian-Macedonian borders. Out of total 7400 detections of irregular traffic in 2011, on the basis of nationality, Afghans had a 28 % share, followed by 25% being Pakistanis. This increase resulted from the combination of increasing flows and more efforts undertaken by the Serbian authorities to detect migrants at their green borders. Consequently, Serbia’s 2011 share in the region’s overall total for illegal border-crossing rose to a massive 40%, up from just 3% in 2010 [2]. Yet there appear to be some deterring arrangements in place that keep WBR somewhat immune from the machinations of the organized crime axis. Therefore, the criminals who facilitate the illegal immigrants from Africa and the ME, by employing modes worse than those meted to animals, have not been able to develop WBR as huge market so far. It still revolves around $ 150 million as compared to illegal immigrants from East, West and North Africa to Europe and from Latin America to North America that fetched them a bonanza of about $ 6.75 billion last year. UNODC plays a crucial role to train and build the target state’s capacity to combat organised crime. The EU in concert with UNODC appears to be mindful of this aspect and the vulnerability that confronts the WBR. Drug Trafficking Western Europe is a lucrative market for drug traffickers. The annual flow of drugs through global markets weighs in at about 450 tons. Out of this, 2008 statistics show that 380 tons of heroin and morphine were produced in Afghanistan alone, gaining access to Western Europe and Russia through Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria and the WBR (the western approach) as well as through the Caspian and Central Asia (the northern approach). There have been sizeable seizures also, conspicuously in Turkey and Iran but the drug barons appear determined to swallow these losses for the sake of the Western European market ($ 20 billion) and the Russian Federation market ($13 billion) [3]. Along the route, some quantities are sold to locals that are wreaking havoc on the societies where one finds large numbers of young addicts without any hope of recovery. To put it simply, when the drug route of the western approach from Afghanistan is fairly broad, it converges on the WBR. This stands as an understandable concern for WBR governments. They are left with no choice but to accept the challenge to eliminate drug trafficking through operational as well as pre-emptive strategies in concert with EU. In other words, the EU is compelled to consider that its stakes are high in the WBR. Covering the threat of huge quantities of cocaine from Colombia is not a direct concern here because no significant source is located in the ME. However Europe shares a big brunt. In 2008, 470 tons of cocaine moved to North America, Canada and Europe and while 40 % was consumed in North America only, a quarter of it ended up reaching Europe.   For the full article text, please visit: http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/the-western-balkans-a-threat-to-the-eu-4749/