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Israel and the Syrian Civil War Marinko Bobić, December 10th, 2013 Geopoliticalmonitor.com Israeli Strategy towards the Syrian Crisis The current situation in Syria only confirms Israel’s belief that the Middle East is inherently unstable. Many Israeli settlers on the Golan Heights hope that eventually a new regime will come to Syria which will be ready to cede the Golan Heights to Israel. Perhaps this will also be an opportunity to make peace with Syria. For this reason, it is important to get the most accurate picture we can about Israel’s current actions towards Syria. At a first glance, they seem to be very confusing and mixed. As the Financial Times reported “Israeli leaders are watching events across the border with a blend of worry, hope and frustration”. This is because they are worried that Assad might make irrational moves or that the weapons might fall into terrorists' hands. In regards to its long-term strategy, Israel seems to be evaluating the following elements. Given that Israel depends on American financial support to uphold its security, it is crucial for Israel to know the American position towards Syria. CBS reported that Wikileaks released cables illustrating US authorities prediction against Assad’s survival by financing anti-government factions, a practice which has been in operation since at least September 2010. US State department has donated between $6 and $12 million, mostly to broadcasting initiatives, such as Barada TV, an anti-regime asset. This is not surprising given that US President Barack Obama and Turkey have agreed on supplying non-lethal aid to rebels, including telecommunications. However, covert operations seem to be playing a much bigger role, such as providing surveillance to the rebels via drones, and arming the rebels via proxies. Seeing this, Israeli can be reassured that Assad will fall; after all, this is Israel’s long-term prediction, no matter how long it takes. But why is Israel, and even the US, reluctant to offer direct support to the opposition in Syria? The answer lies in the fact that Syrian opposition groups remain fractured among 14 or so groups. Two groups that the West could work with, the Syrian National Council and the National Coordination Committee have incompatible views and neither has the major support of Syrian opposition. Two groups, for example, disagree whether violence should be used to oust Assad. Even the Free Syrian Army, the symbol of resistance, has neither organization nor top-down communication. Thus, it operates via small, unconnected groups. However, among all these groups, the EU has recognized the Syrian National Council, which, unfortunately for Israel, contains mostly members of the Muslim Brotherhood. Yet, despite EU recognition, even the Syrian National Council has split into more factions. An even bigger danger is that many of the opposition members are supporters of radical Islam, Jihad and proponents of terrorism, as has been demonstrated with terrorist attacks that claim the lives of many innocent bystanders. The Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, has stated that the Syrian regime is confronting armed gangs and al-Qaida members. Although the Financial Times reports that Israel is confident that any alternative to Assad would be good to Israel, Israel has a good reason to be worried about opposition as much as about Assad. For the full article text, please visit: http://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/israel-and-the-syrian-civil-war-4760/  follow on Twitter | friend on Facebook | forward to a friend  Copyright © 2012 Geopoliticalmonitor.com, All rights reserved.  You are receiving this email because you opted in at our website.  Our mailing address is:  Geopoliticalmonitor.com 5700-100 King Street West Toronto, On M5X1C7 Canada