It is possibly just as well that David Cameron had to postpone that most-trailed speech in history, on Britain’s place in “Europe”, because it may have given him time to get rather better briefed on what he proposes to say, than the advance leaks of his speech have suggested.
We gather that he proposed to say that the wish of the eurozone countries to drive on to much closer political union, will push the British people “nearer to the exit” unless the EU is radically reformed.
Since Britain leaving the EU is the last thing Mr Cameron himself wants to see, he hopes to negotiate a new relationship with the EU, centred on our having continued free access to its single market: this is what he hopes to be able to put to the British people in a referendum, when such negotiations are completed in several years’ time (very possibly after he is no longer in office).
I have pointed out before that this shows so little understanding of the rules of the EU that it is no more than multiple wishful thinking.
Under the EU’s treaty rules, there is no way powers, once handed over by a country, can be given back. Such negotiations as Mr Cameron has in mind would require a new treaty, a convention and an intergovernmental conference, which his EU colleagues would never allow. The only way he could compel them to negotiate would be by invoking Article 50 of the treaty, which can only be triggered by a country announcing that it wishes to leave. So the only way Mr Cameron could get agreement to the negotiations he wants, would be by doing something he insists that he doesn’t want to do.
But another very important point he keeps on getting wrong, is his insistence that he wouldn’t want the kind of relationship with the EU enjoyed by the Norwegians, because although they have full access to the single market, as members of the European Free Trade Association (Efta), they only do so at the price of having to obey rules they have no part in shaping: what is dismissively described as “fax democracy”.
Mr Cameron clearly has not been properly briefed: the Norwegians in fact have more influence on shaping the rules of the single market than Britain does.
Like many other people, he hasn’t grasped that the vast majority of the single market’s rules are decided by a whole range of international and global bodies even higher than the EU – from the International Labour Organisation, which decides working-time rules, to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation, which agrees worldwide standards on food safety and plant and animal health. On these bodies, Norway is represented in its own right, as an independent country, while Britain is only represented as one of the 28 members of the EU.