FOREIGN CONFIDENTIAL
Foreign News and Analysis Since April 2005 -- Formerly China Confidential -- What's Happening in the World
Saturday, March 23, 2013
NASA Co-Developed SkyTran Coming to Tel Aviv
Netanya Next in Line for Nearly Silent Transport Pods
In a way, everything old is new again: elevated light rail could be the wave of the future, starting in one of the world's greatest cities, Tel Aviv, whose very name signifies a blend of old and new. Click below for an animated look at the urban world to come.
Israelis Pioneering Totally Non-Invasive Surgical Procedures
Beyond Laparoscopy: Operations Remove Tumors Without Incisions
Click below to watch the video; over here, for more information.
Israeli Company Has Mastered Metal-Air Technology
Breakthrough Battery Could Power Electric Vehicles With Practically Unlimited Range, Zero C02 Emissions; Just Add Water When Needed
North Korea Ordered Diplomats to Deal Drugs: Report
North Korea reportedly ordered its diplomats to sell drugs on the streets of foreign countries in order to prove their loyalty to the regime.
Read more.
Obama's Israel Trip Could Mean No New Job for Samantha Power
President's Strong Support, Sympathy for Zionist Idea Might Mean Permanent Exile for Viciously Anti-Israel Adviser, an Architect of Unnecessary Libya Intervention and Instigator of Syrian Uprising
The Israel-hating Samantha Power, who actually advocated armed intervention to protect Hamas--click on the video below--has thankfully left the Obama administration. One can only hope her departure is permanent. Power never met an enemy of Israel--and secular Muslims, for that matter--she did not want to appease or engage (collaborate with) under cover of so-called human rights advocacy. Her irrational backing of Islamists is out of step and embarrassing to the administration as it prepares for the inevitable showdown with nuclear-arming, Islamist Iran. (Power is also impossibly conflicted by the nightmarish situations she helped to stir up; in Syria, Shiite Iran is backing a secular regime against Sunni Islamists.)
Friday, March 22, 2013
As Cyprus Collapses, a Race to the Natural Gas Finish Line
By Jen Alic
EDITOR'S NOTE: The following article is republished--click here to access the original--with the permission of Oilprice.com.
Cyprus is preparing for total financial collapse as the European Central Bank turns its back on the island after its parliament rejected a scheme to make Cypriot citizens pay a levy on savings deposits in return for a share in potential gas futures to fund a bailout.
On Wednesday, the Greek-Cypriot government voted against asking its citizens to bank on the future of gas exports by paying a 3-15% levy on bank deposits in return for a stake in potential gas sales. The scheme would have partly funded a $13 billion EU bailout.
It would have been a major gamble that had Cypriots asking how much gas the island actually has and whether it will prove commercially viable any time soon.
In the end, not even the parliament was willing to take the gamble, forcing Cypriots to look elsewhere for cash, hitting up Russia in desperate talks this week, but to no avail.
The bank deposit levy would not have gone down well in Russia, whose citizens use Cypriot banks to store their “offshore” cash. Some of the largest accounts belong to Russians and other foreigners, and the levy scheme would have targeted accounts with over 20,000 euros. So it made sense that Cyprus would then turn to Russia for help, but so far Moscow hasn't put any concrete offers on the table.
Plan A (the levy scheme) has been rejected. Plan B (Russia) has been ineffective. Plan C has yet to reveal itself. And without a Plan C, the banks can't reopen. The minute they open their doors there will be a withdrawal rush that will force their collapse.
In the meantime, cashing in on the island's major gas potential is more urgent than ever—but these are still very early days.
In the end, it's all about gas and the race to the finish line to develop massive Mediterranean discoveries. Cyprus has found itself right in the middle of this geopolitical game in which its gas potential is a tool in a showdown between Russia and the European Union.
The EU favored the Cypriot bank deposit levy but it would have hit at the massive accounts of Russian oligarchs. Without the promise of Levant Basin gas, the EU wouldn't have had the bravado for such a move because Russia holds too much power over Europe's gas supply.
Cypriot Gas Potential
The Greek Cypriot government believes it is sitting on an amazing 60 trillion cubic feet of gas, but these are early days—these aren't proven reserves and commercial viability could be years away. In the best-case scenario, production could feasibly begin in five years.
Exports are even further afield, with some analysts suggesting 2020 as a start date.
In 2011, the first (and only) gas was discovered offshore Cyprus, in Block 12, which is licensed to Houston-based Noble Energy Inc. (NBL). The block holds an estimated 8 trillion cubic feet of gas.
To date, the Greek Cypriots have awarded licenses for six offshore exploration blocks that could contain up to 40 trillion cubic feet of gas. Aside from Noble, these licenses have gone to Total SA of France and a joint venture between Eni SpA (ENI) of Italy and Korea Gas Corp.
But the process of exploring, developing, extracting, processing and getting gas to market is a long one. Getting the gas extracted offshore and then pumped onshore could take at least five years and some very expensive infrastructure that does not presently exist. The gas would have to be liquefied so it could be transported by seaborne tankers.
The potential is there: Cyprus' gas discoveries adjoin Israeli territorial waters where the discovery of the massive Leviathan gasfield (425 billion cubic meters or 16 trillion cubic feet) and smaller Tamar gasfield (250 billion cubic meters or 9 trillion cubic feet) have foreign companies in a rush to cash in on this.
There are myriad problems to extracting Cypriot gas—not the least of which is the fact that some of this offshore exploration territory is disputed by Turkey, which has controlled part of the island since 1974.
Gas exploration has taken this dispute to a new level, with Turkey sending in warships to halt drilling in 2011, and threatening to bar foreign companies exploring in Cyprus from any license opportunities in Turkey. The situation is likely to intensify as Noble prepares to begin exploratory drilling later this year in Block 12.
In the meantime, there is no shortage of competition on this arena. Cyprus will have to vie with Israel, Lebanon and Syria—all of which have made offshore gas discoveries of late in the Mediterranean's Levant Basin, which has an estimated total of 122 trillion cubic feet of gas and 1.7 billion barrels of oil.
Blackmailing Cyprus?
While Greek Cypriot citizens are not willing to gamble away their savings on gas futures, Russia and the European Union are certainly less hesitant.
This is both a negotiating point for Cyprus and a convenient tool of blackmail for Russia and the EU. Essentially, the bailout is the prop on a stage that will determine who gets control of these assets.
Theoretically, Cyprus could guarantee Russia exploration rights in return for assistance. As much as this is possible, the EU could ease its bailout negotiations if it becomes clear that a Russian bailout of sorts is imminent.
Gas finds in the Mediterranean and particularly across the Levant Basin—home to Israel's Leviathan and Tamar fields—could be the answer to Russian gas hegemony in Europe. The question is: How much does Cyprus count in this equation? A lot.
Though only half of the estimated resources in the Levant Basin, Cyprus' potential 60 trillion cubic feet of gas could equal 40% of the EU's gas supplies and be worth a whopping $400 billion if commercial viability is proven.
Russia is keen to keep Cyprus and Israel from cooperating too much toward the goal of loosening Russia's grip on Europe before Moscow manages to gain a greater share of the Asian market.
Russia is also not keen on Israel's plan to lay an undersea natural gas pipeline to Turkey's south coast to sell its gas from the Leviathan field to Europe. Turkey hasn't agreed to this deal yet, but it is certainly considering it. This is fraught with all kinds of political problems at home, so for now Ankara is keeping it as low profile as possible.
With all of this in mind, Russia is doing its best to get in on the Levant largesse itself. While it's also courting Lebanon and Syria, dating Israel is already in full force. Gazprom has signed a deal with Israel that would give it control of Tamar's gas and access to the Asian market for its liquefied natural gas (LNG). Tamar will probably begin producing already in April at a 1 billion cubic feet/day capacity.
In accordance with this deal, which Israel has yet to approve, Gazprom will provide financial support for the development of the Tamar Floating LNG Project. In return, Gazprom will get exclusive rights to purchase and export Tamar LNG. It is also significant because Tamar is a US-Israeli joint venture—so essentially the plan is to help Russia diversify from the European market.
What does this mean for Cyprus? The chess pieces are still being put on the board, and both fortunately and unfortunately, Cyprus' gas potential will be intricately linked to its bailout potential.
Nuclear-Seeking Iran Running Out of Time: Report
Regarding ending Iran's atomic advance, DEBKAfile is reporting that during his visit to Israel President Obama persuaded Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to give diplomacy a chance--for another three months. After June 24, barring a last-minute breakthrough, the countdown to conflict will accelerate, according to DEBKAfile's sources.
Read more.
The timeline makes sense. However, the real question is: What kind of conflict? The United States is reportedly readying one or more surgical strikes on key Iranian nuclear facilities. Israel is presumably making similar preparations. But Iran has threatened to level Israeli cities in retaliation for any attack on the Islamist nation, regardless of whether or not Israel actually participates in the assault, and to also attack U.S. bases in the Middle East, as well as U.S. targets outside the region, perhaps, even, in--or from--the Gulf of Mexico.
Iran has an arsenal of long-range ballistic missiles and legions of terrorists at its disposal; and Iran's proxy, Hitlerian Hezbollah, is also bristling with missiles--tens of thousands of projectiles--capable of striking all over Israel.
Surgical strikes could be the equivalent of merely wounding, instead of killing, a threatening rattlesnake without the ability to get out of its range.
The potential for an aerial war unlike that which the Middle East has ever experienced is clearly present. Tragically, attempts to appease and engage (collaborate with) Iran have made war inevitable; and the conflict could well be fought, initially, at least, on Iranian terms.
Nazi-Like N. Korea Proud of its Human Rights Record
You can't make this stuff up: the world's worst dictatorship, essentially, a country-sized concentration camp, boasts it is the best place on earth for human rights.
Read more.
Obama Ends Israel Trip With Symbolic Stops
President Visits Herzl's Grave and Holocaust Memorial
"Here on your ancient land, let it be said for all the world to hear, the State of Israel does not exist because of the Holocaust, but with the survival of a strong Jewish state of Israel, such a holocaust will never happen again."
President Barack Obama, Speaking at the Yad Vashem Holocaust Memorial
CBS News reports:
Wrapping up a three day visit to Israel, President Obama paid respects to its heroes and to victims of the Holocaust, solemnly reaffirming the Jewish state's right to exist.
Accompanied by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres, Obama laid wreaths at the graves of Theodor Herzl, the founder of modern Zionism who died in 1904 before realizing his dream of a Jewish homeland, and former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin, who was assassinated in 1995.
He also toured the Yad Vashem Holocaust memorial, declaring after that the memorial illustrates the depravity to which man can sink but also serves as a reminder of the "righteous among nations who refused to be bystanders."
Read more.
Thursday, March 21, 2013
Cyprus Seeking Russian Assistance
Facing bankruptcy, Cyprus is looking to Russia for a bailout deal.
Read more.
What price a bailout? Will Russia demand--and get--a Mediterranean base?
We should soon know….
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Vows Five More Years of Austerity
Nightmare Continues; No Light at the End of the Tunnel for Workers
Britain's equivalent of a finance minister or treasury secretary has pledged to stay the austerity course in spite of a looming triple-dip recession--five more years of savage spending cuts, pain and misery.
Read more.
Austerity has failed miserably, made a bad situation much worse. UK unemployment is officially 7.8%. Youth unemployment is over 21%.
Suicide Bomber Slays Syria's Top Sunni Cleric
Mali Islamist Group Designated Foreign Terrorist Organization
The U.S. State Department has formally branded an Al Qaeda-associated group in Mali a Foreign Terrorist Organization.
Read more.
Video: Obama Receiving Israel's Highest Honor
Video of N. Korea Threat to Attack US Bases
Atomic Ayatollah Threatens to 'Annihilate' Tel Aviv and Haifa
The top tyrant in Islamist (clerical fascist) Iran today threatened to "annihilate" Tel Aviv and Haifa if Iran comes under attack over its nuclear program
Read more.
Obama Heckled in Jerusalem During Historic Speech About Mideast Peace, but is Encouraged by Cheers and Applause
An Extraordinary Endorsement of the Zionist Idea
President Barack Obama: "For the Jewish people, the journey to the promise of the State of Israel wound through countless generations. It involved centuries of suffering and exile, prejudice, pogroms and even genocide. Through it all, the Jewish people sustained their unique identity and traditions, as well as a longing to return home. And while Jews achieved extraordinary success in many parts of the world, the dream of true freedom finally found its full expression in the Zionist idea – to be a free people in your homeland….
"When I consider Israel’s security, I also think about a people who have a living memory of the Holocaust, faced with the prospect of a nuclear-armed Iranian government that has called for Israel’s destruction. It’s no wonder Israelis view this as an existential threat. But this is not simply a challenge for Israel – it is a danger for the entire world, including the United States. It would raise the risk of nuclear terrorism, undermine the non-proliferation regime, spark an arms race in a volatile region, and embolden a government that has shown no respect for the rights of its own people or the responsibilities of nations….
"But Iran must know this time is not unlimited. And I have made the position of the United States of America clear: Iran must not get a nuclear weapon. This is not a danger that can be contained. As President, I have said to the world that all options are on the table for achieving our objectives. America will do what we must to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran….
"But the Palestinian people’s right to self-determination and justice must also be recognized. Put yourself in their shoes – look at the world through their eyes. It is not fair that a Palestinian child cannot grow up in a state of her own, and lives with the presence of a foreign army that controls the movements of her parents every single day. It is not just when settler violence against Palestinians goes unpunished. It is not right to prevent Palestinians from farming their lands; to restrict a student’s ability to move around the West Bank; or to displace Palestinian families from their home. Neither occupation nor expulsion is the answer. Just as Israelis built a state in their homeland, Palestinians have a right to be a free people in their own land."
Barack Obama's speech--an extraordinary address to young Israelis by the President of the United States. The audience thankfully roared its approval. Their enthusiastic applause and cheers drowned out the noise coming from a heckler--a jerk or provocateur--whose deeply disrespectful and antidemocratic outburst effectively insulted all Americans, as President Obama is their elected representative.
Click here to read the transcript. It is essentially a Zionist speech, an address that could have been authored and delivered by any center-left Zionist leader, combining a clear and unequivocal endorsement of the Zionist idea--Israel's founding principles--with an appeal for a two-state solution to the protracted Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Must reading.
Obama: "America's commitment to the security of Israel is a solemn obligation."
Is Ditching the Euro the Only Way to Save the EU?
Cyprus, the Eurozone and the euro … an analysis … click here to read it … that raises a crucial question.
Obama Renews Support for Two-State Solution
"Sovereignty for Palestinians, Security for Israelis"
Hours after Palestinians on the West Bank rioted and Palestinians in Gaza fired rockets at Israel, President Obama renewed his call for a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, criticizing Israeli settlement building and expansion, but stopping short of calling for a cessation of settlement activities.
Obama's formula: sovereignty for Palestinians, after more than two generations of occupation, security for Israelis, after more than six decades of not knowing a day of peace….
Read more.
Video: Obama and Netanyahu Visit Dead Sea Scrolls Museum
North Korea Suspected in Cyberattack on South
Banks and Media Companies Hit Hard
Tens of thousands of South Korean computers were paralyzed as a result of a cyberattack that appears to have come from North Korea in spite of a Chinese link.
Read more.
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
N. Korea Continues to Threaten US Bases
North Korea on Thursday (North Korea time) repeated and refined its threat to attack U.S. bases in the Pacific, claiming Guam and Okinawa are "within target."
Read more.
Prodded--and paid--by Iran, North Korea appears to be anxiously trying to upstage and spoil President Obama's Israel visit.
Be that as it may, a new Korean crisis looms.
N. Korean Dictator Threatens to Attack US Bases in Pacific
Exclusive Raw Video: Obama and Netanyahu in Israel
Shell Lost $2.3 Billion in Secret Iran Oil Trade
Revealed Loss Spotlights Sanctions Loophole
Shell says it lost big and can't pay what it owes because of sanctions.
Read more.
In September 2010, the U.S. State Department told reporters that Shell had "terminated its activities" in Iran. Click here to read the archived story.
Obama: US Stands With Israel … Forever
Visiting President Says Support for Israel in US National Security Interest, Makes World a Better Place, "Our Alliance is Eternal"
"Good to See You, Brother"
Remarks by President Obama in Arrival Ceremony
(Transcript provided by the White House office of Press Secretary)
PRESIDENT OBAMA: Shalom. (Applause.) President Peres, Prime Minister Netanyahu, and most of all, to the people of Israel, thank you for this incredibly warm welcome. This is my third visit to Israel so let me just say tov lihiyot shuv ba'aretz. (Applause.)
I’m so honored to be here as you prepare to celebrate the 65th anniversary of a free and independent State of Israel. Yet I know that in stepping foot on this land, I walk with you on the historic homeland of the Jewish people.
More than 3,000 years ago, the Jewish people lived here, tended the land here, prayed to God here. And after centuries of exile and persecution, unparalleled in the history of man, the founding of the Jewish State of Israel was a rebirth, a redemption unlike any in history.
Today, the sons of Abraham and the daughters of Sarah are fulfilling the dream of the ages -- to be “masters of their own fate” in “their own sovereign state.” And just as we have for these past 65 years, the United States is proud to stand with you as your strongest ally and your greatest friend.
As I begin my second term as President, Israel is the first stop on my first foreign trip. This is no accident. Across this region the winds of change bring both promise and peril. So I see this visit as an opportunity to reaffirm the unbreakable bonds between our nations, to restate America’s unwavering commitment to Israel’s security, and to speak directly to the people of Israel and to your neighbors.
I want to begin right now, by answering a question that is sometimes asked about our relationship -- why? Why does the United States stand so strongly, so firmly with the State of Israel? And the answer is simple. We stand together because we share a common story -- patriots determined “to be a free people in our land,” pioneers who forged a nation, heroes who sacrificed to preserve our freedom, and immigrants from every corner of the world who renew constantly our diverse societies.
We stand together because we are democracies. For as noisy and messy as it may be, we know that democracy is the greatest form of government ever devised by man.
We stand together because it makes us more prosperous. Our trade and investment create jobs for both our peoples. Our partnerships in science and medicine and health bring us closer to new cures, harness new energy and have helped transform us into high-tech hubs of our global economy.
We stand together because we share a commitment to helping our fellow human beings around the world. When the earth shakes and the floods come, our doctors and rescuers reach out to help. When people are suffering, from Africa to Asia, we partner to fight disease and overcome hunger.
And we stand together because peace must come to the Holy Land. For even as we are clear-eyed about the difficulty, we will never lose sight of the vision of an Israel at peace with its neighbors.
So as I begin this visit, let me say as clearly as I can --the United States of America stands with the State of Israel because it is in our fundamental national security interest to stand with Israel. It makes us both stronger. It makes us both more prosperous. And it makes the world a better place. (Applause.)
That’s why the United States was the very first nation to recognize the State of Israel 65 years ago. That’s why the Star of David and the Stars and Stripes fly together today. And that is why I’m confident in declaring that our alliance is eternal, it is forever – lanetzach.
Thank you very much.
Mideast Muslim Fanatics Seek to Erase Evidence of Region's Ancient and Once-Thriving Jewish and Christian Communities
Seth J. Frantzman: "This pattern of 'monoculturalism,' the advancement of the history and existence of only one culture, has been on the march throughout the region. In the 1950s many large cities in the Middle East were bustling, diverse metropolises. For instance, Tunis was 20 percent Jewish, and 100,000 Italians and 13,000 Maltese also lived in and around the capital city."
Click here to read "The Triumph of Monoculturalism in the Middle East."
Israeli Official: US Plans 'Pinpoint' Iran Op if Push Comes to Shove
A Readiness to Wound Rather than Kill the Deadly Snake?
A senior Israeli security official says the Obama administration is preparing a "pinpoint operation" to prevent Iran from becoming a nuclear-armed power if sanctions and diplomacy fail. The military option would be used in a "focused" way that aims to avoid an all-out war.
Read more.
N. Korea Vows Armed Action Against US Nuclear-Capable B-52s
Foreign Ministry Warns Situation "Inching Close to the Brink of War"
North Korea says it will take military action if the United States again flies nuclear-capable B-52 bombers over the Korean peninsula.
Read more.
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Iraq Now a Lab for Terrorists
10 Years After ...
The Iraq war was unnecessary, an intervention based on lies, a staggeringly huge strategic blunder, a horrible waste of human life and material resources. Thanks to the Bush administration, Iraq is no longer a contained secular enemy; instead, it is an Iranian satellite … and a laboratory for terrorists, including Al Qaeda.
Read more.
US-Backed Islamic Law Coming to Syria
What Barack Obama's terrible support for the so-called Arab Spring has wrought: winter for Syria.
Read more.
Obama's overt embrace of Islamism is inexcusable. In fairness to the President, the United States has covertly backed the clerical fascist creed for decades--a perfidious policy that blew back most horrifically when Saudi-financed, Pakistan-aided, Afghanistan-sheltered-and-supported Al Qaeda slaughtered some 3,000 Americans on American soil in the 9/11 mega-attacks.
Cyprus Facing 'Financial Oblivion'
The government of Cyprus is desperately trying to push through a bill that would allow the government to effectively steal money from bank deposits with exemptions--proposed at the 11th hour--for small savers. But parliament is expected to reject the draconian measure, misrepresented (and misreported) to the world as a "tax," which the German-dominated EU is insisting on as the price (for the time being) for a $13 billion bank bailout.
So Cyprus is facing "financial oblivion," and the crisis there could trigger cascading bank runs--a crashing down of the entire European system.
Read more.
So Cyprus is facing "financial oblivion," and the crisis there could trigger cascading bank runs--a crashing down of the entire European system.
Read more.
Islamists Aim to Annihilate Muslim Sect
Hazara Muslims marked for annihilation in Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Click here for the story.
Syrian Regime Reportedly Resorting to Chemical Warfare
Monday, March 18, 2013
Cyprus Pushing Parliament to Violate Bank Accounts
The government of Cyprus is pressing parliament to pass a so-called tax--actually, a bill that permits official theft--which has sent shockwaves across Europe.
Read more.
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