Friday, 3 May 2013

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A marginal impact of the ECB rate cut? 
Open Europe Blog

ECB increasingly likely to cut rates but running short of tools to help the eurozone economy 
Open Europe Blog

It's election day and David Cameron has promised to legislate for an EU referendum - or has he? 
Open Europe Blog


Daily Press Summary

ECB cuts interest rates but actions fall short of market expectationsThe ECB yesterday decided to cut its main interest rate by 0.25% to 0.5% and its marginal lending rate (used for emergency overnight lending) by 0.5% to 1%. The FT reports that Germany’s ECB Executive Board member Jörg Asmussen voted against the cut, although Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann supported it. ECB President Mario Draghi told the press that the ECB stood “ready to act if needed” and hinted that the ECB would consider negative deposit rates even if it meant dealing with some perverse effects. However, the ECB moves fell short of market expectations of additional action to help boost lending to the real economy. Open Europe’s blog post detailing the ECB’s options and constraints was cited by the Telegraph live blog and recommended by Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Separately, the ECB also announced yesterday that it would begin accepting Cypriot government debt and debt guaranteed by the Cypriot government as collateral for its standard lending operations once again. Open Europe’s Pawel Swidlicki’s Twitter coverage of the ECB’s announcement featured on theGuardian’s and Finnish leading business weekly Talouselämä’s live blogs.
Open Europe blog Independent IHT Guardian La Tribune FT FT 2 FT 3 City AM WSJ FAZ SüddeutscheSüddeutsche: Brinkmann Welt Telegraph: Evans-Pritichard European Voice BBC Telegraph: Live blogEconomist Corriere della Sera Rai News 24 WSJ FT Guardian: Live blog Talouselämä: Live blog

The European Commission this morning released its spring economic forecast with the eurozone economy now expected to contract by 0.4% this year. Both France and Italy are forecast to contract by more than previously expected. The Commission’s new forecast for Spanish deficit in 2014 is 7% of GDP – compared to 5.5% predicted by the Spanish government last week.Spring Economic Forecast press release

New poll: 37% of Germans want to see anti-euro party represented in parliament;
70% of Germans think the SPD’s eurozone policy is not sufficiently clear or distinct
A new ARD poll has Angela Merkel’s CDU/CSU on 40%, the SPD on 26%, the Greens on 15%, Die Linke on 7% and the FDP on 4%. The new German anti-euro party Alternative für Deutschland is on 3%. However, 37% of respondents said it would be good if it won seats in parliament – compared with 58% who said it would be bad. In head-to-head favourability, Merkel leads the SPD’s Chancellor candidate Peer Steinbrück by 59% to 28%.

Meanwhile, 70% of respondents said that the SPD had not really made it clear how it intended to solve the eurozone crisis or to differentiate it from that of the government. Finally, 76% of respondents said they expected the euro to survive the crisis, with 58% saying the government ought to do “everything possible” to ensure that this happens.
Welt

Boris Johnson backs legislation on in/out EU referendum before electionLondon Mayor Boris Johnson said yesterday that David Cameron should “ram home the message” of his promised in/out EU referendum by legislating before the election. On Conservative Home, Open Europe’s Christopher Howarth writes, “Trust is a precious commodity in politics and if people believe (rightly or wrongly) that David Cameron has promised to legislate in this Parliament and then does not, they will not believe his promise to legislate in the next Parliament.”
Conservative Home: Howarth Times Telegraph Telegraph: Editorial

Slovenia successfully completed a bond auction yesterday, which had been postponed after Moody’s downgraded the country’s credit rating to junk. French business daily La Tribune quotes Open Europe’s briefing suggesting Slovenia might need an EU rescue package worth between €1bn and €4bn to help restructure its banking sector.WSJ La Tribune

Labour retained former Foreign Secretary David Miliband’s South Shields seat in yesterday’s by-election winning 50.5% of the vote. UKIP came second on 24% and the Conservatives third on 14.2%. The Liberal Democrats finished seventh on 1.4%. UKIP are also set to make significant gains in local elections with an average vote share of 26%.Guardian City AM Times Sun Mail Telegraph

Commenting on the leaked French Socialist party report criticising Angela Merkel for her “selfish intransigence”, French President François Hollande told the WSJ, “If I started to ask those who don’t completely agree with me to leave, the government would be left with an extremely thin base.”Open Europe blog WSJ: Hollande
Philippe Morel, a senior partner at Boston Consulting Group, is quoted in Handelsblatt calling the EU’s financial transaction tax a “weapon of mass destruction.” The burden of the FTT will “ultimately have to be carried by the clients of the financial sector…savers and pensioners,” he added.
No Link

The interest rate on Spain’s ten-year bonds has today fallen below 4% for the first time since 2010, reports Expansión
El País
 El Mundo Expansión

Reuters reports that Ireland is resisting calls for earlier bank stress tests before its bailout ends this year, hoping instead to align them with the EU-wide tests due next year.
Reuters
 Irish Independent

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