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British Government Drops Climate Change From G8 Agenda

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CCNet 17/06/13

British Government Drops Climate Change From G8 Agenda

Met Office In A Sweat Over Wrong Predictions

In an article for the Wall Street Journal, David Cameron explains that the UK G8 Presidency will focus on achieving action on tax, trade and transparency: Today, our greatest challenge is to restore strong and sustainable growth to the world economy. -- The Rt Hon David Cameron MP, 10 June 2013

The UK Prime Minister's Adviser for Europe and Global Issues Ivan Rogers has rejected moves from Germany and France to make the issue one of the meeting's key talking points. Officials from the two countries are said to be disappointed their suggestions were rebuffed. Instead, Rogers is insisting that trade, transparency and tax form the core of discussions scheduled to take place at Lough Erne, in Northern Ireland between June 17-18. --Ed King, The Guardian 26 March 2013

It was recently revealed that David Cameron's adviser for Europe and global issues, Ivan Rogers, blocked moves from Germany and France to make climate change a G8 agenda item. This is short-sighted and risks undermining the last hope for an international agreement that could avert catastrophic climate change. There are now concerns that the UK government may be watering down its and Europe's own ambition. As well as blocking efforts to introduce a target to decarbonise the UK's power sector by 2030, George Osborne is now understood to be pushing for slower ambition across the EU by opposing a new renewables target to replace the current one which will expire in 2020. --Will Straw, The Guardian, 10 April 2013

Efforts to curb global warming have quietly shifted as greenhouse gases inexorably rise. The conversation is no longer solely about how to save the planet by cutting carbon emissions. It’s becoming more about how to save ourselves from the warming planet’s wild weather. After years of losing the fight against rising global emissions of heat-trapping gases, governments around the world are emphasizing what a U.N. Foundation scientific report calls “managing the unavoidable.â€� --Seth Borenstein, The Associated Press, 15 June 2013

An [urgent] summit is to be held as experts try to fathom out why ­Britain has been subjected to such volatile weather in recent years. In an unprecedented move, the Met Office will next week host a “workshopâ€� of scientists and meteorologists from around the country. Dr Peiser said [Met Office] forecasts issued in 12 of the past 13 years have been “too warmâ€�, including the winters of 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2012/13. He said: “They are realising that what they predicted isn’t happening. And of course they are trying to push the agenda that the weather is unusual because of climate change. --Nathan Rao, Daily Express, 15 June 2013

Centuries ago, when astronomers found it hard to square their observations with the then-orthodox theory that the Earth lay at the centre of the universe, they invented the concept of ‘epicycles’, convoluted wobbles and twists that supposedly accounted for such discrepancies. Citing some cold British winters and unsettled summers as evidence of climate change has about as much credibility. I suppose we should be thankful that unlike the bogus epicycles, such efforts are not, as yet, being enforced by the Inquisition. --David Rose, Mail on Sunday, 16 June 2013

Despite a decade and a half without temperature rise, climate scientists still stubbornly stick to their predictions of steadily increasing global temperatures. These predictions are all based on GCM, computer programs that model the circulation of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans and a myriad of other factors in an attempt to simulate our planet’s climate system. The problem is, the computer models are severely flawed, flawed at such a fundamental level that two climate modelers have called for a reassessment of all computer models currently in use. --Doug L Hoffman, The Resilient Earth, 16 June 2013

1) British Government Drops Climate Change From G8 Agenda - The Rt Hon David Cameron MP, 10 June 2013

2) Realism At Last: Climate Policy Shifting To Adaptation - The Associated Press, 15 June 2013

3) Met Office In A Sweat Over Wrong Predictions - Daily Express, 15 June 2013

4) Met Office Summit Meeting To Find Out Why British Weather Is ... Normal - Mail on Sunday, 16 June 2013

5) Climate Models In Crisis: The Met Office Summit’s Real Agenda? - The Resilient Earth, 16 June 2013

6) Roy Spencer: Epic Climate Models Failure - National Post, 13 June 2013

 

1) British Government Drops Climate Change From G8 Agenda

The Rt Hon David Cameron MP, 10 June 2013

UK’s G8 agenda – trade, tax, transparency

In an article for the Wall Street Journal, David Cameron explains that the UK G8 Presidency will focus on achieving action on tax, trade and transparency:

Britain and America have a proud history of working together to meet the great challenges of the day. Ours is a partnership without parallel, rooted in our values of freedom and enterprise – advancinng not just Britain’s and America’s interests but the good of people around the world.

Today, our greatest challenge is to restore strong and sustainable growth to the world economy.

When times are tough, some want to put the barriers up, to look inwards, and to protect themselves from the world. But Britain and America stand for a better way. We have a precious opportunity to transform the global economy—not by less openness and less free tradde, but by more. And we must do everything possible to seize it.

Full story

see also: Key Cameron adviser blocks climate change from G8 agenda

 

2) Realism At Last: Climate Policy Shifting To Adaptation

The Associated Press, 15 June 2013

Seth Borenstein

Efforts to curb global warming have quietly shifted as greenhouse gases inexorably rise. The conversation is no longer solely about how to save the planet by cutting carbon emissions. It’s becoming more about how to save ourselves from the warming planet’s wild weather.

It was Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s announcement last week of an ambitious plan to stave off New York City’s rising seas with floodgates, levees and more that brought this transition into full focus.

After years of losing the fight against rising global emissions of heat-trapping gases, governments around the world are emphasizing what a U.N. Foundation scientific report calls “managing the unavoidable.�

It’s called adaptation and it’s about as sexy but as necessary as insurance, experts say.

It’s also a message that once was taboo among climate activists such as former Vice President Al Gore.

In his 1992 book “Earth in the Balance,� Gore compared talk of adapting to climate change to laziness that would distract from necessary efforts.

But in his 2013 book “The Future,� Gore writes bluntly: “I was wrong.� He talks about how coping with rising seas and temperatures is just as important as trying to prevent global warming by cutting emissions.

Like Gore, government officials across the globe aren’t saying everyone should just give up on efforts to reduce pollution (sic). They’re saying that as they work on curbing carbon, they also have to deal with a reality that’s already here.

In March, President Obama’s science advisers sent him a list of recommendations on climate change. No. 1 on the list: “Focus on national preparedness for climate change.�

“Whether you believe climate change is real or not is beside the point,� New York’s Bloomberg said in announcing his $20 billion adaptation plans. “The bottom line is: We can’t run the risk.�

On Monday, more than three dozen other municipal officials from across the country will go public with a nationwide effort to make their cities more resilient to natural disasters and the effects of man-made global warming.

“It’s an insurance policy, which is investing in the future,� Mayor Kevin Johnson of Sacramento, Calif., who is chairing the mayors’ efforts, said in an interview Friday. “This is public safety. It’s the long-term hazards that could impact a community.�

Full story

  

3) Met Office In A Sweat Over Wrong Predictions

Daily Express, 15 June 2013

Nathan Rao

AN [urgent] summit is to be held as experts try to fathom out why ­Britain has been subjected to such volatile weather in recent years.In an unprecedented move, the Met Office will next week host a “workshopâ€� of scientists and meteorologists from around the country.They will discuss the succession of unusual weather events, including last year’s very wet summer and the recent cold spring.Although officials insisted the meeting will not be used to promote the theory of climate change, it sparked concern last night from sceptics.

Summit chairman and Met Office expert Professor Stephen Belcher said the talks will include discussions about the melting Arctic sea ice and its possible impact on the European climate.

He said: “We have seen a run of unusual (sic) seasons in the UK and northern Europe, such as the cold winter of 2010, last year’s wet weather and the cold spring this year.

"This may be nothing more than a run of natural variability but there may be other factors impacting our weather.

"€œFor example, there is emerging research which suggests there is a link between declining Arctic sea ice and European climate – but exactly how thiss process might work, and how important it may be among a host of other factors, remains unclear."€�

Dr Benny Peiser, of the Global Warming Policy Foundation, last night said the Met Office would be wrong to link the variable British weather to climate change [before comprehensive research is completed]. He accused [Met Office computers of having a warm bias which was responsible for] “systemic and significant� errors in their forecasting.

The Met Office was left red-faced in 2009 after predicting the UK was “odds on for a barbecue summer�. It has faced subsequent criticism for failing to pinpoint periods of freezing weather over the winter.

Dr Peiser said [Met Office] forecasts issued in 12 of the past 13 years have been '€œtoo warm'€�, including the winters of 2008/9, 2009/10 and 2012/13. He said: "They are realising that what they predicted isn'€™t happening. And of course they are trying to push the agenda that the weather is unusual because of climate change.

"This is nonsense. [Weather isn't climate and they should] not spin three examples of unseasonal weather [events] and try to link it with climate change."€�

Full story

See also: About that Met Office ‘Emergency Meeting’

Forget Met Office Hype: UK Weather Is Perfectly Normal

12 Reasons Why The Met Office Is Alarmed

 

4) Met Office Summit Meeting To Find Out Why British Weather Is ... Normal

Mail on Sunday, 16 June 2013

David Rose

As of lunchtime yesterday, the Met Office wasn’t at all sure how Britain’s weather would turn out today. According to a spokesman, some of its computer models were predicting ‘a rather miserable day for some southern areas’. Others, however, suggested it would be ‘fine and bright’.

‘Sometimes the atmosphere can provide a real challenge for forecasters,’ the spokesman admitted wearily.

The problem right now, apparently, is a phenomenon known as a ‘trough disruption’, a common type of westerly weather whose course both computers and human beings find hard to predict.

 

Still, the signs were that by the end of the week, temperatures would be normal for June, at about 20C. Looking further ahead, there were likely to be both some downpours and some nice, sunny days.

"A€˜Ita€™s what you'€™d term typically British weather and far from a wash-out,"€™ the spokesman concluded, adding that although summer only began officially on June 1, so far it has been relatively warm, a few cool days last week notwithstanding.

Pinch yourself. This deserves a headline: "€˜Met Office shock announcement: Britain's weather is normal."

This is, of course, the same Met Office that next week is set to host what some have termed an '€˜unprecedented'€™ meeting of climate scientists, an attempt to ‘brainstorm’ whether the ‘extreme weather’ of the past few years has been caused by ‘climate change’.

The cold winter and spring of 2013, the bitter winter of 2010, the floods of 2012 and the disappointing summers of the past seven years –“ all are up for discussion, together with their supposed origins.

No mention, you may notice, of the droughts and heatwaves we were once told to brace ourselves for as a consequence of what used to be termed global warming.

Then, as an analysis last week demonstrated, the period without a statistically significant increase in global average temperatures has now reached 17 years four months.

Small wonder that the nature of the world’s impending doom has had to be rebranded. At least the Met Office has the intelligence to realise that the forecasts of tropical diseases becoming endemic in England, which used to feature frequently in certain newspapers, currently look wide of the mark. But attributing every kind of weather to climate change can also be unconvincing.

Last week yet another round of UN climate talks broke up without (as usual) an agreement on how to limit emissions of carbon dioxide. They took place in Bonn, which, like Britain, was enduring a chilly spell.

'€"Winter has been extended,"€™ explained a delegate from the Cook Islands. "€˜It's supposed to be really hot, but it's not, because global warming is happening right now."€™

Looking back to one'€™s childhood, it'€™s easy to recall a succession of golden summer days and fool oneself into thinking this was then the norm.

Indeed, occasionally they actually happened: the summer of 1976 was pretty hot, with a drought from May to September. But I also remember 1973, when the Snowdonia summer camp I was attending was hit by a six-day deluge, which forced us to strike our flooded tents and seek refuge in a barn.

The truth, revealed by the hard data of temperature and rainfall records, is that hot, golden British summers have always been the exception, and neither rainfall nor average temperatures have shown much change for several centuries.

There are ups and downs, as you would expect with English weather. Wet though last year was, it was not as wet as 1768 or 1872. And dry though 2011 was, it was only the 33rd driest in the series.

Paul Homewood, a retired accountant turned climate historian, is an assiduous student of the Central England Temperature Record, the world’s longest continuous series of accurate readings. His graph, shown here, of the five-year running average going back to 1660 demonstrates that while the summers since 2006 have indeed got cooler, such short-term trends have happened many times before.

In January, the Met Office claimed that 2012 was the second wettest year on record, behind only 2000 – prompting claims that this must surely be evidence of climate change. However, as Mr Homewood points out, while records for the whole UK go back only to 1910, there are England and Wales figures that date from 1766, and they reveal that the wettest year was actually 1872, followed by 1767.

As for long-term trends, there have been many decades as wet or wetter than the supposedly ‘extreme’ conditions experienced recently. It’s just that the period 1965 to 2000 was unusually dry, and so we’re less used to them.

‘This is a part of the world in which climate change is pretty hard to quantify,’ Professor Myles Allen, head of Oxford University’s climate research network, said yesterday.

We are an island between an ocean and a continent, which also benefits from the Gulf Stream. As the Met Office was admitting, the UK’s location means that reliably predicting weather just 24 hours ahead can be impossible.

Centuries ago, when astronomers found it hard to square their observations with the then-orthodox theory that the Earth lay at the centre of the universe, they invented the concept of ‘epicycles’, convoluted wobbles and twists that supposedly accounted for such discrepancies.

Citing some cold British winters and unsettled summers as evidence of climate change has about as much credibility. I suppose we should be thankful that unlike the bogus epicycles, such efforts are not, as yet, being enforced by the Inquisition.

 

5) Climate Models In Crisis: The Met Office Summit’s Real Agenda?

The Resilient Earth, 16 June 2013

Doug L Hoffman

Despite a decade and a half without temperature rise, climate scientists still stubbornly stick to their predictions of steadily increasing global temperatures. These predictions are all based on GCM, computer programs that model the circulation of Earth’s atmosphere and oceans and a myriad of other factors in an attempt to simulate our planet’s climate system. The problem is, the computer models are severely flawed, flawed at such a fundamental level that two climate modelers have called for a reassessment of all computer models currently in use.

Sadly, a number of the flaws they point out have been known to scientists for decades, yet mainstream climate science continues to rely on these broken models, hoping to get lucky with predictions made for the wrong reasons.

Most people have never heard of Joseph Smagorinsky, an American meteorologist and the first director of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. A half century ago, the late Dr. Smagorinsky was one of the first climate scientists to attempt to model the Earth system using computers, creating the first general circulation model or GCM. In his doctoral dissertation, Smagorinsky developed a new theory of how heat sources and sinks in midlatitudes, created by the thermal contrast between land and oceans, disturbed the path of the jet stream. In 1955, at the instigation of computer visionary John von Neumann, the U.S. Weather Bureau created a General Circulation Research Section under Smagorinsky’s direction.

Now, a recent paper published in the journal Science, by Bjorn Stevens and Sandrine Bony, of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology and Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique–Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, respectively, examines the progress in computer climate modeling. In the article, titled “ What Are Climate Models Missing?,â€� the author’s return to basics to ask what is wrong with today’s complex and cumbersome numerical models, and their judgment is harsh. Their findings are captured in the article’s abstract:

Full story

 

6) Roy Spencer: Epic Climate Models Failure

National Post, 13 June 2013

Climate modellers and the IPCC have willingly ignored the evidence for low climate sensitivity for many years.

Below is a running graph of 5-year averages for the tropical tropospheric temperature, climate models versus observations.  In all, 73 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project are plotted against observations so that their respective 1979-2012 trend lines all intersect in 1979, which we believe is the most meaningful way to simultaneously plot the models’ results for comparison to the observations.

In my opinion, the day of reckoning has arrived. The modellers and the IPCC have willingly ignored the evidence for low climate sensitivity for many years, despite the fact that some of us have shown that simply confusing cause and effect when examining cloud and temperature variations can totally mislead you on cloud feedbacks. The discrepancy between models and observations is not a new issue … juust one that is becoming more glaring over time.

 

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out in the coming years. I frankly don’t see how the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change can keep claiming that the models are “not inconsistent with� the observations. Any sane person can see otherwise.

If the observations in this graph were on the UPPER (warm) side of the models, do you really believe the modelers would not be falling all over themselves to see how much additional surface warming they could get their models to produce?

Hundreds of millions of dollars that have gone into the expensive climate modelling enterprise has all but destroyed governmental funding of research into natural sources of climate change. For years the modelers have maintained that there is no such thing as natural climate change … yet they now, ironicallly, have to invoke natural climate forces to explain why surface warming has essentially stopped in the last 16 years!

Full story