Britannia Radio

EU politics: the UKIP challenge   Tuesday 16 July 2013 Not only the Guardian but much of the legacy media is responding to the latest ICM monthly poll. This poll puts Labour and the Conservatives neck and neck on 36 percent, with the latter's success attributed to the continued collapse in UKIP support. The eurosceptic party's share of the vote is down from 18 percent in May – just after its local election success – to 12 percent in June and now just seven percent in July.  Our surprise at this development is less than total and one can only surmise that, with a greater number of people having looked seriously at UKIP, they are deciding that there is a lack of substance to the party. Certainly, if some of the comments on the Booker column this weekend are any guide, then there is good reason to run a mile from UKIP. Yet, while we are told that Mr Farage occasionally speaks in favour of Article 50, we have not seen a definitive policy statement from him, setting out UKIP's formal policy on leaving the EU. The nearest thing we have is Tim Congdon, and his ideas are going nowhere. Perhaps one way for UKIP to redeem itself is for it to take up the IEA challenge to compose a "Blueprint for Britain" outside the EU, covering the process of withdrawal from the EU and the post-exit repositioning of the UK in the global trading and governance systems. The IEA is asking for detail of the legal and constitutional process necessary for the UK to leave the EU and set up, if desired, alternative international relationships. The Institute wants to hear about not just the process within the EU itself but the changes to UK law and regulation that would be desirable or necessary. Then, the challenge is to produce a guide for the negotiation of the UK’s post-EU-exit position to settle the UK’s relationships with the remaining EU and other interested parties and, crucially, with the rest of the world, in respect of trade, supranational governance, immigration, the environment, financial regulation, defence etc. Such stuff should be meat and drink for a party which is dedicated to our withdrawal from the EU, and it should run away with the €100,000 "IEA Brexit Prize". It has a golden opportunity to demonstrate that it has a grip on the issues, and is a serious player in the field. On the other hand, maybe The Harrogate Agenda should make a submission. I'm a little uneasy about some of the judges, but might be prepared to give the first stage a bash, especially as the entries are judged anonymously. And that might prove another challenge for UKIP. Is that worth doing, we wonder, and would it achieve anything? COMMENT THREAD Richard North 16/07/2013

Back in harness – soon   Tuesday 16 July 2013 Not the most direct route from Bristol to Bradford. But worth the visit. Chatham House rules applied, so I am limited as to what can be said. Suffice to say that I gave a lecture to 160+ Majors on the Command and Staff College Course. My slot, I am told, is one of the most difficult to fill. It requires the lecturer to give a candid appraisal of the military performance in Iraq and Afghanistan, with no holds barred – mostly to soldiers who saw active service in both theatres. Described as a "target round", my talk was very well received. So much so, I have been asked to come back for the next three courses. Chuffed is a word I think is appropriate in this case. I'll get back to work later today. COMMENT THREAD Richard North 16/07/2013